Monday, December 27, 2010

Latest China IPO box office.

Youku.com Inc. American Deposit (NYSE:YOKU),is an online television/online video portal which operates as a Chinese Internet video Website. It offers user-generated and professional video content in China and internationally. The company also provides Youku Index, an online video ranking to track the popular videos in real-time. In addition, it offers Partnership Plan 3.0, a strategic map aimed at rationalizing and developing an online copyright market for China. The company enables Chinese Internet users to watch and share videos. Youku.com Inc was formerly known as 1Verge, Inc. and changed its name to Youku.com Inc in 2008. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Beijing, China.
It was listed on the 8th December 2010 with an opening price of USD27.00(priced 15.368 million shares at $12.80).The company has its headquarters on the fifth floor of the Sinosteel Plaza building in Haidian District, Beijing.It was founded by Victor Koo, former President of Chinese Internet portal Sohu.
Tracking the Dow on Monday,27/12/10
Asian Index Futures Expiry:31/12/10
09:30am:-- Bearish 40.0 points gap-down.China's central bank tacked on another 25 basis points to its target lending rate and deposit rate.
10:30am:--A retracement to session MAV resistance,dark clouds.
11:30am:--Holding near MAV resistance,finding a support at the bear top.
12:30noon:--A breakout of the resistance line.Bulls in sight.
1:30pm:--Another bullish rebound.Inverted hammer.Tech stocks are the main supporter.
2:30pm:--Ascending soldiers on scene reaching the bull resistance line.
3:30pm:--Shooting star at the bull resistance line.
4:00pm:--Bearish engulfing.Traders are still on vacation judging from the thin volume.
A post holiday season hangman candlestick.Pullback to follow,the spinning top on Thursday is also a concern as this might blow off the lighted candlestick.
China's central bank Christmas gift to the Dow, another 25 basis points to its target lending rate and deposit rate. The decision, which is intended to stave off inflation, rekindled concern about slower growth in China and, in turn, a more sluggish global economic recovery.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Live fire drill near axis of evil.

North Korea is an authoritarian regimes and a one party state.Recently they have a missile called "the Musudan."
The Musudan is now playing a starring role in reports this week prompted by WikiLeaks' release of U.S. diplomatic cables. One of the documents says that Iran has obtained 19 of the missiles from North Korea, prompting news reports suggesting that the Islamic republic can hit targets in Western Europe and deep into Russia - farther than Iran's existing missiles can strike.
However, experts who analyzed Oct. 10 photographs of the Musudan said it appeared to be a mock-up. Such documents sources are a bit muddy.
A large quantity of Soviet naval ballistic missile parts were shipped to North Korea during the Soviet collapse of the 1990s and the Musaban might have its origin.
The latest news that sends shivers throughout the financial market is that South Korea plans to carry out a planned firing drill from an island near the border with North Korea from Monday morning.North Korea has threatened reprisals if the drill goes ahead.
The North Koreans will just keep their Taepodong Missiles for display purposes and strike hard to its neigbours and the foward deployed South Korean armies and US forces by employing lethal chemical weapons that virtually all the fire support systems in its inventory could deliver.
Tracking the Dow,3rd Friday being Quadraple Witching Day.
09:30am:--Bearish Open gap-down.Renewed concerns about the euro zone debt crisis after Ireland's credit rating was slashed.Bullshit:Funds unwinding position for year end book closing.
10:30am:--Holding near session bear support.Graveyard dojis.
11:30am:--After finding a morning session low,index is hoovering now near MAV resistance line.
12:30noon:--Still hoovering near the MAV resistance line.
1:30pm:--A bullish breakout of the MAV resistance line.
2:30pm:--Attempts to break the day's highest failed.Bearish hangman noticed.
3:30pm:--Day's bullish support line being hit.Bearish engulfing.
4:00pm:--A last minute short-covering near day's high.
Stocks were very volatile as quarterly "quadruple witching"occurs during the session with stock index futures, stock index options, stock equity options and single stock futures expiring. Investors typically reduce their positions in the run up to Christmas creating low volumes in the markets, which could add to the volatility.
Friday's candlestick depicts that of a hangman and could see further profit taking below the lower shadow.
Don't worry,those ratings downgraders will be using their theme to playdown the markets.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Fed's hidden agenda.

In the mid-2000s, Alan Greenspan was the hero of the financial world. With his blunt philosophy of inflation, Greenspan was credited for turning the tech-bust into a real estate and financial boom.
Following the 2008/2009 meltdown, Greenspan morphed from hero to scapegoat similar to some of the traders at some of the reputable financial instituitions and hedgefunds that blame their fund managers for making huge losses.
Bernanke carried on the torch of fearless Keynesian Fed Presidents and made it on the cover of Time magazine within his first term.
According to Bernanke (quoted in the Washington Post), inflating stock prices is the golden grail of today's monetary policy: 'Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.'
So by inflating asset prices,the main benefacto will be the Wall Street bankers.Hence,retail investors have to bail out from mutual funds and start chasing after stocks.He has been artificially depressing interest rates takes away wealth from savers and distributes it to borrowers.
The effects:-
August 2007: Fed lowered discount rate, unemployment rate at 4.7%
December 2008: Fed reduced rates to just north of zero, unemployment rate at 7.4%.
March 2009: Fed launches QE1, unemployment rate at 8.6%.
November 2010: Fed launches QE2, unemployment rate at 9.6%.
Tracking the Dow,Friday 10/12/10.(5 market day s to Quadraple Witching)
09:30am:--Opening bull but was shortlived.
10:30am:--Pullback to find early session low.Bulls hammering the bottom.
11:30am:--A retracement to session MAV resistance.Bearish shooting star.
12:30noon:--A breakout of the morning MAV resistance line,bulls showing their spinning colours.
1:30pm:--Currently holding at bull support line.Inverted bulls.
2:30pm:--Another pullback to the bull support line,a double bottom.
3:30pm:--Another pullback to bull support line for the 3rd time.Morning star noted.
4:00pm:--Last minute spike up with a bearish hammer close.
It's time for the rollover of contracts prior to the index/options futures expiry.
Eight days before the contract expiry,the high volatility starts.The following weeks will see the bulls creeping up Tuesday's upper shadow since last Friday it was holding superbly above December month bulls pivot support.
The markets benefited from strong trade numbers in the U.S. and China and hopes Congress will extend the expiring Bush tax cuts.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

A year end scramble.

The year 2010 will be coming to an end and it is normal that most of the big funds and financial instituitions will be reviewing their portfolios.
The portfolio managers are "all trying to scramble to catch up. They have performance risk, they have bonus risk and ultimately they have job risk."
Regular investors burned by the credit crisis are finally ready to embrace this stock market rally, bond exchange-traded funds recorded their first outflow since the equity bull market began in March of 2009.The ETFs, which track Treasury, municipal and corporate bonds, posted a net outflow of $501 million in November.Regular investors have refused to jump into this equity rally headfirst and opted for the low return safety of bonds are also
reviewing their positions.
Ironically, the ETF outflows began just as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a quantitative easing plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities. Many investors feel the well-telegraphed move by Bernanke was already priced into the fixed income market and that economic improvement may mean the Fed Chief won’t even have to complete this buying program.
Tracking Friday's Dow.(10 market Days to Quadraple Witching)
09:30am:--Bearish 40.0 points opening gap down.Disappointing jobs report for November
10:30am:--After filling up the bearish opening gap,index fallen again but holding steadily at the bear support line.
11:30am:--Pullback again after earlier rebound to near morning high.
12;30noon:--Consolidation time,holding at the bear support line.A bullish hammer of the bottom noted.
1:30pm:--Rebound to MAV resistance line.Big Lots Inc.,the close-out goods retailer reported a 42% drop in net profit for its fiscal third quarter and lowered its outlook for the year.
2:30pm:--A bullish engulfing seen,improved risk appetite prompts investors to pick up more equities, small and midcap shares .
3:30pm:--A last half hour bullish spike up.Jobs report data a bit doubtful,ADB report says good earlier while the government says bad.
4:00pm:--A bearish hangman awaiting.
The first week of December ended on a very bullish note.A very long white candlestick.Any intermittent pullback is negligible unless another geo-political fear seeps in again.A very good Thanksgiving Day indeed.
Wall Street has shown its ability to hold onto gains, or quickly recover from losses this week despite Europe's debt woes, suggesting that investors are confident of a sustained rally.
When things don't fall apart on bad news, you know that the market is no longer vulnerable. The overall sentiment is pretty solid

Sunday, November 21, 2010

China is resilient to inflationary pressure.

Surging food prices pushed up China's consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, to a 25-month high of 4.4 percent in October.The price of food, which accounts for one third of the basket of goods used to calculate China's CPI, surged 10.1 percent year on year in October.
The planning agency said supplies of farm products such as poultry, eggs, grain and cooking oil are sufficient. It said the government has adequate reserves, even after droughts and other natural disasters this year.
Economists say money flooding through the economy thanks to stimulus spending and bank lending helped push up October inflation.
China's regulators also worry that soaring lending is fueling overspending on real estate and other assets and could leave banks burdened with unpaid loans if ill-considered projects default.
Beijing has slammed the U.S. for monetary policies it says are flooding emerging economies with cash seeking higher returns due to low interest rates and the weakening U.S. dollar.
China's Cabinet promised last week to ensure adequate supplies of coal, power, oil and gas and said it would impose price controls on daily necessities if required.
The government also has promised food subsidies for the poor and increases in pensions and minimum wages.
Dow Index Futures expiry day.
9:30am:--Concerns about the effects of China inflation along with debt woes in Europe have pressured equities.
10:30am:--Early session low,bullish hammering out a bottom.
11:30am:--Holding at near morning high.Bearish pullback.
12:30noon:--Pullback holding strongly at the bullish pivot.
1:30pm:--Another attempt to pierce the morning high.
2:30pm:--Session high with bearish pullback.
3:30pm:--Retracement time.
4:00pm:--Day's high closing.
A week of threatening news...China's inflation & Ireland bankruptcy.
China’s government increased the amount of deposits it requires banks to hold with its central bank by 50 basis points.
Meantime, the prime minister of Ireland Brian Cowen — or “Taoiseach,” as the Irish call him — is in “constructive talks” with the International Monetary Fund over help in the country’s debt woes, with formal inspection of the country’s finances underway.
The weekly candlestick reflects that of a bullish dragonfly doji while the monthly todate pattern is still a bullish spin.Bulls and bears are still fighting it out and the bulls need to break the monthly MAV resistance line in order to secure a safe haven.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Dispute,accusations and manipulations.

The latest U.S.-China currency dispute
has raised the specter of a global trade war.
Huge differences remain on U.S. accusations that China deliberately undervalues its currency to gain a trade advantage while similar accusations are being made against the United States.
The dispute over whether China and the United States are manipulating their currencies is threatening to resurrect destructive protectionist policies like those that worsened the Great Depression in the 1930s. The biggest fear is that trade barriers will send the global economy back into recession. A law the United States passed in 1930 that raised tariffs on imports is widely thought to have deepened the Great Depression by stifling trade.
A more market determined exchange rate systems and enhance exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying economic fundamentals is currently the key discussions at the G20 summit.
The Dow on Friday is 5 market days to Index/options futures expiry.
The Moslem Haj holiday is on 17/11/10

9:30am:--Bearish 60.0 points gap down.The causes:-increasing European sovereign debt concern, a sharp drop in Chinese shares and a profit warning from tech bellwether Cisco (CSCO).
10:30am:--Attempted rebound failed with more bearish hammers.
11:30am:--Hangman near the bottom.China's inflation worries.
12:30noon:--Bears at session low,graveyard dojis.
1:30pm:--A rebound to bear pivot resistance.
2:30pm:--A second attempt at bear pivot resistance,bulls noted.
3:30pm:--Failed to test the MAV resistance.Bears profit taking.
4:00pm:--A bullish harami closing.
We have a first week of bulls followed by 2nd weeks of bears nearly wiping out the first week gains.
As for today the overall candlestick is a weak bullish inverted hammer and it has to shortcover again
The US stock market was pulled down by intensifying concerns over the eurozone economy as laggards Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece struggle to deal with a growing sovereign debt.
Data out of China showed a roaring inflation beyond central bank targets, which raised speculation of an interest rate hike as early as this weekend.

Friday, November 5, 2010

The hidden agenda of currency dispute.

The Obama administration says that China's undervalued currency, the yuan, contributes to strains in the global economy because it gives Beijing an unfair trade boost by making Chinese goods cheaper in the U.S. and elsewhere. Meanwhile, emerging economies like Brazil blame both the U.S. and China for keeping their currencies weak.
At the heart of the problem is the huge gap between the United States, which buys far more than it sells to the rest of the world, and developing countries, such as China, which are running big trade surpluses.
Southeast Asia, made up of export-reliant nations are now giggling at their high currency value which have made their goods less competitive. Some governments have expressed concern that lower U.S. interest rates will result in more money flooding into their markets seeking higher returns, pushing up exchange rates and hurting exports by making their goods more expensive. Expectations of the Fed's move also contributed to weakening the U.S. dollar, adding to global currency tensions.
Tracking the Dow,Friday 5th November 2010.
Today is the Diwali Festival(Deepavali),Indian New Year celebration.

9:30am:--Bearish 20.0 points gap down opener.A surprising surge in October nonfarm payrolls announced.
10:30am:--A dragonfly doji in a bullish pair.After pulling back from earlier high,a second technical rebound.
11:30am:--The Republicans win control of the House of Representatives and the Federal Reserve announce it would buy $600 billion in additional bonds.Graveyard doji and a bearish engulfing.
12:30noon:--A morning session low being set and bullish engulfing lifted a rebound to the MAV resistance line.
1:30pm:--Weak bull at the MAV resistance,three bearish crows swiped on the bulls.
2:30pm:--Another new low of the day,followed by a technical rebound with inverted bullish hammer.
3:30pm:--Attempt to rebound to the MAV resistance failed.Profit-takers are on hand.
4:00pm:--A last minute spike up dressing,very fictitiuos.
U.S. stocks rose slightly, extending their climb to fresh two-year highs as investors were encouraged by a report of stronger-than-expected job growth for October.
A spinning top was formed on Friday and any pullback will be within Thursday upper half body candlestick.
The Federal Reserve is poised to allow healthy banks to increase dividend payments for the first time since the financial crisis.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Hot money and currency war.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in remarks at a Boston Fed conference that the central bank may expand asset purchases or change the language in its statement, while saying “nonconventional policies” have costs and limitations. “There would appear -- all else being equal -- to be a case for further action,” Bernanke said.
The central bank will release on Oct. 20 its Beige Book survey of regional Fed banks. Last month, the report found the economic rebound showed signs of slowing. Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting released on Oct. 12 indicated that policy makers were poised to take more easing steps “before long.”
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will delay a report on international currencies, including China’s yuan, while citing progress in the acceleration of the pace of the yuan’s rise.
The yuan advanced 0.5 percent this week and touched 6.6406, the strongest level since the central bank unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993.
The report will be delayed until after the meetings of the Group of 20 nations in the coming weeks, according to a statement from the Treasury.
The greenback has tumbled 5 percent against the yen since Sept. 15, when Japan acknowledged intervening in the market by selling the currency to prevent its strength from undermining the nation’s export-dependent economy.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),quoted that "There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon.
"Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery," he said.
Unilateral action by one central bank can, therefore, set off or fuel disputes in other parts of the world. Although America sees itself as a victim of global currency intervention, many people argue that its own policies are the cause.
Meanwhile short-term capital flows(hot-money) are disturbing emerging economies and it can be a catastrophe.The US is the epicentre, causing chaos over the rest of the world by printing cheap money.
Tracking the Friday's Dow,(Index Futures Expiry Day)
Asian Index Futures expiry,29/10/10.Pre-rollover contracts,22/10/10

09:30am:--A bullish 40.0 points gap-up with a bearish dark cloud cover.
10:30am:--Index nosedived to session low,bullish hammering out the low.
11:30am:--Rebound to MAV resistance line,graveyard doji confirmation.
12:30n00n:--After pulling back to the bear pivot support,a rebound at this moment failed to kiss the MAV resistance line.Hangman checkmate.
1:30pm:--A second attempt to test the resistance fall short of target.Graveyard doji again.
2:30pm:--Another rebound that failed the MAV resistance test.
3:30pm:--Fallback to bear pivot support line,morning star followed.
4:00pm:--A third MAV resistance attempt,complete failure.Bears overwhelmed the bulls in today's tug of war.
Two bearish dojis,covering back the whole of Wednesday's candlestick body greeted the Index/options futures expiry day.
On the whole the three pairs are still hoovering above the bull pivot support and it's still a bullish play.
Friday's early bulls cheered the market after a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to another round of monetary easing from the central bank.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October thus giving the bears a bigger leeway to find a reason to sell the market.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Easing the economic pain.

Economists — at least some economists — believe that when you want to improve the economy you need to get more money out there, circulating around.
Hence the government must spend money or the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates, which makes it cheaper to borrow. So people borrow more, buy more, build more new things.
But with this financial crisis, for the first time in U.S. history, those two tools won't work.
With quantitative easing, the Fed comes along and do the midas touch--Create new money, get it out there, everyone wins.
The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a monetary policy used by central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system.
A central bank implements QE by first crediting its own account with money it creates ex nihilo ("out of nothing").It then purchases financial assets, including government bonds, agency debt, mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions in a process referred to as open market operations. The purchases, by way of account deposits, give banks the excess reserves required for them to create new money, and thus induce a hopeful stimulation of the economy, by the process of deposit multiplication from increased lending in the fractional reserve banking system.
The Dow is 5 market days to index futures expiry.
Monday,11/10/10 is Columbus Day.
9:30am:-A 20.0 points opening gap up.
A loss of 95,000 nonfarm jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 9.6% holds back an early trust.
10:30am:--Pullback to find an early session low with a morning star.
11:30am:--Retracement to morning high again,bullish inverted hammer noted at the 11,000 mark for the first time.
12:30noon:--Bulls are still holding tightly near the high.A combination of modest private-sector job growth combined with dragging employment on the state and local government levels could be a trend that continues for many months ahead.
1:30pm:--Bearish engulfing pullback to the MAV support line.
2:30pm:--Technical rebound.The October crash anniversary is now celebrated with a bullish reversal,contrary to the annual belief.
3:30pm:--A new session high.A weak jobs report increases the possibility the Fed would pump more money into the financial system—known as quantitative easing—to help spur growth.
4:00pm:--Profit taking to the bullish support line.
The Dow is now very near to the 52 weeks high of 11,309.00
The bulls general pattern to date:
Nov'09:--Bear crash.Dec & Jan bulls.
Feb'10:--Bear crash.Mac & Apr bulls.
May'10--Bear crash.Jun & July double dip.
Aug'10:--Bull .
September:--Early anniversary crash.
October Bull & November pre-election bull.
December:--Year end dip,post election??
The Fed,mind your language,too sensitive to market.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

A tepid economy.

The Federal Reserve is likely to take additional action to rejuvenate the economy and lower unemployment, an influential member of the central bank's policymaking group said Friday.
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the pace of economic growth has been disappointing. And he worries that if the economy doesn't strengthen, the risk of an outbreak of deflation rises. Deflation is a dangerous and widespread decline in goods and services, wages and in the values of homes and stocks.
The Fed is considering buying more government debt to force down rates on mortgages and other loans to entice Americans to spend more. Doing so would bolster the economy.
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, also said on Friday that more action by the Fed would be "desirable." Evans said he's still assessing the best way to provide more aid as well as how much. Evans, who will become a voting member of the Fed's policy group next year, made the comments in a speech delivered in Rome.
The Fed's next meeting on Nov. 2-3.
The Fed is weighing that option, known as quantitative easing, because its traditional interest-rate lever to help the economy is already at a record low near zero and can't be cut further.

Tracking the Dow on Friday,1/10/10.
9:30am:--An early opening 60.0 points booster.Personal income rose half a percent in August.
10:30am:--Shooting star near session high.Pullback filling the opening gap.
11:30am:--A dragonfly doji near session low.
12:30pm:--Retracement time,now holding near the MAV resistance line.
1:30pm:--A technical rbound failed to test the bull pivot resistance.
2:30pm:--Pullback near the bear support line,dragonfly doji checked the decline and now attempting the bull pivot resistance again.
3:30pm:--Bearish harami at the bull resistance.
4:00pm:--Bears pull it back to the MAV support line dangerously spinning to find a bottom.
Friday's short-covering attempt to recover the previous day's candlestick body did not materialised.
Trading was jittery after the Institute for Supply Management said the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September, but at a slower pace than in August.
Backlogs and new orders were down and inventories were way up, which portends declining economic growth in the next few quarters.
Fresh support by the Fed needed if the economy falters.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Yuan will not be pressurized.

China will not repeat Japan's mistake in the 1980s and let its exchange rate surge in response to foreign pressure, said an adviser of China's central bank on Sunday, firing back at increasing pressure from the United States over China's foreign exchange rate policy
Li Daokui, an economist and member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, said the exchange rate is just one of the many tools that China could deploy to adjust the structure of its economy. The country may choose other means, such as boosting domestic consumption and increasing imports, to achieve a trade balance, he said.
"China will not go down the path that Japan did and give in to foreign pressure on the yuan's exchange rate," Li said at an industry forum in Beijing.
"I think there is still a huge potential to boost China's domestic consumption," he added.
Many Chinese officials and researchers are wary of the experiences of Japan, which bowed to pressure from the US in 1985 to sign the Plaza Accord that allowed the Japanese yen to rise sharply to reduce a bulng US trade deficit.
But as money poured into Japan to chase the yen higher, loose monetary policy inflated an asset price bubble that burst in the beginning of the 1990s, ushering in two decades of economic stagnation for Japan.
Li said on Sunday that the economic circumstances in China today are very different from those in Japan in 1985.
"The biggest difference is that China has a huge domestic market," he said, noting that domestic consumption and the country's urbanization can sustain China's GDP to grow more than 9 percent annually in the next 10 years.
During the past few weeks, US lawmakers have been pressing for legislation that would require the US government to apply punitive sanctions against China and other countries with allegedly undervalued currencies.
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last week in congressional testimony that the US will use every available tool to urge China to let its currency rise more quickly and blamed the slow pace of yuan appreciation for US' trade deficit.
However, China has largely reduced its trade surplus during the past few years, Li said.
"But what has the US done to reduce its trade deficit?" Li said. "The US should pay much more attention to its own problems."
China vowed to make the yuan's exchange rate more flexible on June 19, ending a two-year peg to the US dollar. Since then, the yuan has gained 1.5 percent.
Earlier this month, China reported that its trade surplus shrank in August from July, as imports picked up.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,24/09/10.
9:30am:--Bullish 100.0 points gap up.Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell less than expected in August.
10:30am:--Session high,inverted hammer.New-home sales remained flat in August.
11:30am:--Pullback time but still near the high.
12:30pm:--Consolidation phase and the bulls still in control.
1:30pm:--Another session high.Capital spending data in U.S., German sentiment help lift equities.
2:30pm:--A slight pullback and then hit a new session high.
3:30pm:--Slight profit-taking. Investments in capital goods continued to rise in August and this will increases demand and spurs job opportunities.
4:00pm:--Bearish spin.A slight pullback to follow.
The bulls are on rampage again bringing the spot month index to a new high.Since the overall candlestick for the month to date being a white bullish formation,any pullback is negligible.
It turns out the recession ended more than a year ago as declared by The National Bureau of Economic Research a group of economists based in Cambridge, Mass. It's their job to declare when recessions officially begin and end.
So now the party has begun.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Gender change.

Thailand has a thriving sex change industry, but doing the opposite – making a woman into a man – is difficult and it will cost about US$12,000 an inch, at least for the first inch, says Thailand's most famous transgender surgeon.
The price per inch goes down but the pain goes up for acquiring a longer bit of wedding tackle. At that, having your gender reassigned is cheaper in Bangkok than anywhere else on earth, and it's so common that it is advertised in the newspapers in bold print, attracting generations of journalists eager to tell the tale.
Thousands of people flock here from all over the world, but particularly the United States, Australia, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea and the Middle East, mostly men seeking to match their softer side with a physique to match.
Using a penis to create a vagina is relatively easy compared to the surgical difficulty of constructing a penis with a clitoris, says Dr Preecha Tiewtranon, who bends people both ways. "I have done more than 3,500 of this kind of operation in 30 years," Preecha said during a recent interview at his modern, three-story, white-walled Preecha Aesthetic Institute on upmarket Thonglor Road (http://www.pai.co.th/). Preecha leads a staff of 15 plastic surgeons slicing, dicing and reconfiguring both male and female sexual organs.The Thai government recently changed its law on transgender operations and now requires Thais to wait at least one year before undergoing a sex change. In response to the new law, Preecha says he sends his Thai patients to two psychiatrists to confirm that the individuals qualify. After a surgeon slices off the male organ (aaagh), and plumps the breasts with implants, the newly created woman can usually enjoy sexual relations and climax, he says.
Tracking the Dow,Friday 10/09/10.(5 market days to index/options futures expiry)
9:30am:--A bullish 50.0 points spike up due to unemployment benefits fell last week but a sudden pullback caused by news that Deutsche Bank was considering raising money through a stock sale.
10:30am:--A shooting star at session high.Awaiting U.S. President Barack Obama's news conference for any comments on the economy.
11:30am:--Bearish harami.Pullback to the opening gap.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time.Retracement to the session MAV resistance line.
1:30pm:--Bullish spike up. Inventories held by wholesalers surged in July by the largest amount in two years while sales rebounded after two straight declines.
2:30pm:--Bulls are holding tightly.July consumer credit data showed that credit fell another $3.6 billion
3:30pm:--The high of the day,a shooting star.
4:00pm:--Bearish hangman at the close.
As usual the high volatility starts 7 days before the index futures expiry.This time around the invinsible manipulators used the European banking distress to fulfill their agenda.An old issue that is being brought up again.
The following day they just say that the fear is overdone.
So now what's next when the rollover of contracts start next week?Are we in these 3 days of bull trap again?
It's seven weeks before important elections when control of Congress is at stake,the current administration might not be doing enough to overcome the abyss especially the unemployment problem.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Mountain House bubble.

Samling, the giant logging company owned by the timber tycoon Yaw Teck Seng and favoured with numerous timber licences by the Chief Minister, Abdul Taib Mahmud, was at the heart of the housing bubble that led to the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the world economic crash, according to our exclusive research.
We have established that Mountain House, a major new-town development in San Joaquin California, currently labelled as the ‘epicentre’ of the housing crash, was a Yaw family project.
...continue http://malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/from-around-the-blogs/34257-samling-at-epicentre-of-sub-prime-crash
...if being block by authorities:-http://groups.yahoo.com/group/beritamalaysia/message/114534
..Or
http://sarawakreport.org/2010/09/samling-at-epicentre-of-sub-prime-crash/
Tracking the Dow,Friday 3/09/10.Ten market days to index futres expiry.
Labour Day Holiday Monday,all market close.
9:30am:--Better-than-expected data on the labor market.Bulls strike 10 points homebase.
10:30am:--Session high pullback to MAV support line.Shooting star.Nonfarm payrolls fall by 54,000 in August, less than the 90,000 drop Wall Street had forecast.
11:30am:--Retrace to MAV resistance . 12:00noon:--It's consolidation time,spinning doji's slightly above the MAV support line.
1:30pm:--Bulls spike up.Energy stocks rose.
2:30pm:--Intermittent profit taking near day's high. The nation's unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.6% in August from 9.5% in July.
3:30pm:--A morning star doji. Cheap big financial stocks on the move.
4:00pm:--Ending the day with a bullish engulfing ready for the spillover.
We are now in the end of 3rd quarter of the year.The Dow crashes a bit early this year instead of the usual October month.
The overall first week Dow's candlestick has shown a very bullish pattern.
Players may come in with a fullforce after the Labour Day Holiday.
Overseas strength and better-than-expected economic data acted as the main drivers behind the buying interest.
The much anticipated August employment report marked the most important event of the week.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Annual mountainside conference.

It has been an annual affairs that Central bank officials from more than 35 countries usually travel to the Jackson Lake Lodge, elevation about 6,900 feet (2,103 meters), to mingle with leading monetary policy makers and thinkers.
A week prior to this grand event,the US market will normally crash and this time around Asian markets defy this American tricks and go against the trend.
Between debates over new research and crisis management under chandeliers, attendees take hiking and rafting excursions in Grand Teton National Park.
This year's gathering centers on the theme, "Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead." Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet are the focussing speakers.
Three key crisis management approach by the Federal Reserve:-
1) substantial easing of monetary policy despite inflationary pressure.
2) Offer liquidity to support financial markets through collateralized lending programs.
3) regulators to monitor the health of individual financial instituitions and developing new regulations
Tracking the Dow,Friday.Asian index futures contracts rollover.
9:30am:--A bullish 50.0 points gap up.The Commerce Department made a smaller-than-expected cut in its estimate of second-quarter economic growth.
10:30am:--Earlier pullback to find an early low has now retraced to near session high. Second-quarter growth in the U.S. economy comes in at 1.6% -- not as bad as economists and investors had feared.
11:30am:--A new session high,spinning top.Consumer confidence rises slightly in August but still remains weak.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time.Bearish hammer.
1:30pm:--After pulling back to bull support pivot,three ascending soldiers seen.
2:30pm:--Bulls bringing it higher.Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the central bank would not sit idly and let the U.S. economy sink into a period of deflation.
3:30pm:--After digesting the Fed's news,a slight pullback but the bulls are still supporting it.
4:00pm:--A new high of the day closing.Consumer confidence rises slightly in August but still remains weak.
Looks like every quarter there'll be threatening news so that a trough formation depicting the head and shoulder pattern can be materialised.
The beginning of July was a bull party and towards the end of the third month comes the shorties.
Friday is a bullish spin and a rebound is on the card aided by the Fed who has just open his mouth.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Reducing treasury debt holding.

China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt for a second straight month in June while the holdings of Japan and Britain rose.
China's holdings fell by $24 billion to $843.7 billion, a decline of 2.7 percent, the Treasury Department said Monday in a monthly report on debt holdings.
Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities rose $45.6 billion to a total of $4 trillion, an increase of 1.2 percent.
A drop in foreign demand would lead to higher interest rates in the United States. The yield on Treasuries rises when fewer people invest in them
It would start with the U.S. government paying more interest on its $13.3 trillion national debt and then ripple through the economy. Consumer loans such as home mortgages and auto loans track the yields on Treasurys, so they could rise, too.
China is the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities. The $24 billion decline in China's holdings in June followed a $32.5 billion drop in May. China's holdings had hit a high for this year of $900.2 billion in April.
There are concerns that China could influence U.S. interest rates by rapidly selling off its holdings of U.S. debt. That could lead others to dump their holdings and result in a spike in interest rates.
The Dow Friday is Index/Options Expiry Day.
9:30am:--Bearish 20.0 points gap down.Economic jitters.
10:30am:--Shooting star near hourly bottom.Weak data on the jobs market and regional manufacturing reignited fears about the economic recovery.
11:30am:--Bearish engulfing.The market had focused too much on short-term jobs numbers.
12:30noon:--Bullish engulfing.The usual mid-afternoon technical rebound.
1:30pm:--Inverted hammer.
2:30pm:--Bullish engulfing near the MAV resistance line.
3:30pm:--Bullish inverted hammer holding above the MAV support.M&A news as an excuse for late-day buying.
4:00pm:--A small inverted bull.
A correction on Index/Options futures expiry day.The pullback tapers off at the low of the month. The overall mood of a market is worried about a weakening economy. There are no economic releases scheduled for Friday and the earnings calendar is relatively light.Earlier on the beginning of the month,despite all the negative economic news,the Dow still maintain its push into the positive territory.After the FOMC announcement,the slide begins.This is also a blessing in disguise for the Fed Reserve to unload their Citigroup shares in a staggering manner.They still have a lot to go and will pump in more bad news as they have their deadline to meet.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Without wheat no bread.

Wheat is the dominant grain of world commerce. It is easily transported and stored and it is used to produce a large variety of foods that include many kinds and types of breads, cakes, noodles, crackers, breakfast foods, biscuits, cookies, and confectionary items.
Wheat is the staple food of millions of people. It is also an important part of the daily diet of many millions more. Only rice challenges wheat for the title of most important food grain in the world.
Approximately two-thirds of the wheat produced in the world is used for human food and about one-sixth is used for livestock feed. Industrial uses, seed requirements, and post-harvest losses account for the remaining withdrawals from the world wheat granaries.
Bread is a major commodity in the world. Millions of loaves are produced in automated bakeries every day.The people who are hurt most by rising food prices are the world's poorest, who spend a large portion of their income on basic food. In poorer countries where labour is cheap and packaging minimal, the price of bread is mostly the price of wheat. That is why driving prices up unnecessarily can really hurt the poor. Fears of a shortage can by themselves create shortage, as countries and individuals buy more than they need and keep it for themselves.
Top wheat producers:--
China … 96.2 million tonnes (15.4% of global wheat production)
India … 72 million (11.5%)
United States … 57.1 million (9.1%)
Russia … 45.5 million (7.3%)
France … 36.9 million (5.9%)
Canada … 25.5 million (4.1%)
Australia … 24.1 million (3.8%)
Germany … 23.6 million (3.8%)
Pakistan … 21.6 million (3.4%)
Turkey … 21 million (3.4%)

Top wheat exporters:--
United States … 31.6 million tonnes (29.9% of wheat exports from top 10 exporting countries)
Australia … 18.5 million (17.5%)
Canada … 15.1 million (14.3%)
France … 14.9 million (14.1%)
Argentina … 10 million (9.5%)
Russia … 4.7 million (4.5%)
Germany … 3.9 million (3.7%)
United Kingdom … 2.5 million (2.4%)
Kazakhstan … 2.4 million (2.3%)
India … 2 million (1.9%)

Top wheat importers:--
China … 7.2 million tonnes (14.6% of wheat imports from top 10 importing countries)
Japan … 5.5 million (11.2%)
Italy … 6.5 million (13.2%)
Algeria … 5 million (10.1%)
Brazil … 4.8 million (9.7%)
Indonesia … 4.5 million (9.1%)
Spain … 4.4 million (8.9%)
Egypt … 4.4 million (8.9%)
Mexico … 3.6 million (7.3%)
South Korea … 3.4 million (6.9%)
The Dow on Friday is 5 market days to index/options futures expiry.

9:30am:--A weak bull opener. The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in July
10:30am:--Pulback from high,bearish hammer.Retail stocks fell.
11:30am:--Bearish hangman.
12:30noon:--After settling with a morning low,stocks have rebounded piercing through the MAV resistance line.Helped by strength in Bank of America Corp. and recently down-trodden Hewlett-Packard Co.'s 1:30pm:--Bearish candlestick at the high for second time.Consumer sentiment ticks up in August.
2:30pm:--Pullback to MAV support line,a hangman noticeable. Mixed economic data did little to convince investors of the recovery's strength.
3:30pm:--Attempteed rebound failed,a bearish hammer followed.
4:00pm:--Breakaway bear,gap down.Many traders are on vacation or out of the market because of the uncertainty. That helped send stocks fluctuating Friday before they finally closed lower with low volume turnover.
Four straight days of losses to the Dow Index.Additional signs that the strength of the global recovery is waning sparked selling pressure, resulting in sharp losses for the major indices.
Overseas data that supported the notion of a slowdown in the global recovery weighed on U.S. stocks. China reported weaker-than-expected retail sales and the Bank of England lowered its economic outlook.
Friday's bearish spinning doji is holding tightly within previous day's candle's lower shadow.There are chances that short-covering of positions to occur before the index/options expiry day.