Sunday, December 12, 2010

Fed's hidden agenda.

In the mid-2000s, Alan Greenspan was the hero of the financial world. With his blunt philosophy of inflation, Greenspan was credited for turning the tech-bust into a real estate and financial boom.
Following the 2008/2009 meltdown, Greenspan morphed from hero to scapegoat similar to some of the traders at some of the reputable financial instituitions and hedgefunds that blame their fund managers for making huge losses.
Bernanke carried on the torch of fearless Keynesian Fed Presidents and made it on the cover of Time magazine within his first term.
According to Bernanke (quoted in the Washington Post), inflating stock prices is the golden grail of today's monetary policy: 'Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.'
So by inflating asset prices,the main benefacto will be the Wall Street bankers.Hence,retail investors have to bail out from mutual funds and start chasing after stocks.He has been artificially depressing interest rates takes away wealth from savers and distributes it to borrowers.
The effects:-
August 2007: Fed lowered discount rate, unemployment rate at 4.7%
December 2008: Fed reduced rates to just north of zero, unemployment rate at 7.4%.
March 2009: Fed launches QE1, unemployment rate at 8.6%.
November 2010: Fed launches QE2, unemployment rate at 9.6%.
Tracking the Dow,Friday 10/12/10.(5 market day s to Quadraple Witching)
09:30am:--Opening bull but was shortlived.
10:30am:--Pullback to find early session low.Bulls hammering the bottom.
11:30am:--A retracement to session MAV resistance.Bearish shooting star.
12:30noon:--A breakout of the morning MAV resistance line,bulls showing their spinning colours.
1:30pm:--Currently holding at bull support line.Inverted bulls.
2:30pm:--Another pullback to the bull support line,a double bottom.
3:30pm:--Another pullback to bull support line for the 3rd time.Morning star noted.
4:00pm:--Last minute spike up with a bearish hammer close.
It's time for the rollover of contracts prior to the index/options futures expiry.
Eight days before the contract expiry,the high volatility starts.The following weeks will see the bulls creeping up Tuesday's upper shadow since last Friday it was holding superbly above December month bulls pivot support.
The markets benefited from strong trade numbers in the U.S. and China and hopes Congress will extend the expiring Bush tax cuts.