Sunday, December 5, 2010

A year end scramble.

The year 2010 will be coming to an end and it is normal that most of the big funds and financial instituitions will be reviewing their portfolios.
The portfolio managers are "all trying to scramble to catch up. They have performance risk, they have bonus risk and ultimately they have job risk."
Regular investors burned by the credit crisis are finally ready to embrace this stock market rally, bond exchange-traded funds recorded their first outflow since the equity bull market began in March of 2009.The ETFs, which track Treasury, municipal and corporate bonds, posted a net outflow of $501 million in November.Regular investors have refused to jump into this equity rally headfirst and opted for the low return safety of bonds are also
reviewing their positions.
Ironically, the ETF outflows began just as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a quantitative easing plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities. Many investors feel the well-telegraphed move by Bernanke was already priced into the fixed income market and that economic improvement may mean the Fed Chief won’t even have to complete this buying program.
Tracking Friday's Dow.(10 market Days to Quadraple Witching)
09:30am:--Bearish 40.0 points opening gap down.Disappointing jobs report for November
10:30am:--After filling up the bearish opening gap,index fallen again but holding steadily at the bear support line.
11:30am:--Pullback again after earlier rebound to near morning high.
12;30noon:--Consolidation time,holding at the bear support line.A bullish hammer of the bottom noted.
1:30pm:--Rebound to MAV resistance line.Big Lots Inc.,the close-out goods retailer reported a 42% drop in net profit for its fiscal third quarter and lowered its outlook for the year.
2:30pm:--A bullish engulfing seen,improved risk appetite prompts investors to pick up more equities, small and midcap shares .
3:30pm:--A last half hour bullish spike up.Jobs report data a bit doubtful,ADB report says good earlier while the government says bad.
4:00pm:--A bearish hangman awaiting.
The first week of December ended on a very bullish note.A very long white candlestick.Any intermittent pullback is negligible unless another geo-political fear seeps in again.A very good Thanksgiving Day indeed.
Wall Street has shown its ability to hold onto gains, or quickly recover from losses this week despite Europe's debt woes, suggesting that investors are confident of a sustained rally.
When things don't fall apart on bad news, you know that the market is no longer vulnerable. The overall sentiment is pretty solid