Sunday, May 31, 2009

The Dow without GM.

When General Motors file for Chapter 11 in the bankruptcy court on June 1 if no other options is available,the stocks will be delisted and become a worthless piece of junk papers good for the scrapyard.
Turnover of trading was very high prior to the countdown date as there were heavy bettings of any miracle rescues.
Any disappointment of news,well the common stocks will be quarantined and relisted in the OTC market.Over-the -Counter.So this time will no more be quoted as (NYSE:GM) but (GM.PK).ie pink sheet.
So GM will join the gang of its peers like Lehman Bros,Washington Mutual,Worldcom,Enron and Delphi Corporation to name a few.The trading price range will be between 0.01 cents to 0.25 cents only.
Taking over GM's position in the Dow Component Index might be Citigroup so that's why the Dow won't be repeating the old ardage of Sell in May and go away.It's going to reach the 52 weeks MAV and than transform into a bull-rally.
Tracking the Dow On Friday,29/5/09
9:30am:--Mild bullish open with bearish dark cloud cover.
Commerce Department's report on first-quarter gross domestic product showed the economy contracted at an annual rate of 5.7 percent, a bit more than analysts' forecasts.
10:30am:--After pulling back to fill the opening gap up,the indicies are now at near session high.A bearish graveyard doji hindering the upsurge.
11:30am:--The dragonfly bulllish doji and a bullish hammer at near morning seesion low quite a good sign of bulls returning.
12:30noon:--A technical rebound to bear pivot point with bullish engulfing noticed.
1:30pm:--Indicies is now holding strong at session Bull pivot.We have bullish engulfing pattern again.
2:30pm:--The bears growled bringing it back to near day's low again.
3:30pm:--Bullish last minute spike up.The dirty heroes of short-sellers are again manupilating the market.Asian market are also having this last minute phenomenon which happened also on the last day of index futures expiry.
4:00pm:--Bullish inverted hammer.Looks like sell May and go away is not applicable this time.
Friday's volume was the highest and has left a small upper shadow near the bull pivot waiting to ignite again.
Besides the ISM report on Monday, the coming week has a series of critical economic data that will help determine the market's next move, including pending home sales, retailers' sales figures and, next Friday, the government's employment report for May.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Chapter 11 for GM.

It's going to be the last supper for General Motors.History is going to be made on Chapter 11 and all business school students will be able to read about the rise and fall of a business giant that once is the icon that made America proud during the industrial revolution.
May 26 will be the final countdown--bondholders,take the 10 cent on the dollar of your investment or else all will be lost in the sinking titanic.
This will create another financial tsunami.It will be leaving behind a legacy of Amazing & Stunning memory.

Tracking the Dow on 22/05/09.


9:30am:--Mild bullish spike up followed by early gap cover.
The market theme play is Worry about the U.S. budget deficit, with U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing ground.
10:30am:--Retracement to opening high.
Investors have reduced positions in U.S. assets due to concerns about the country's debt.
11:30am:--Session high with bearish spin.
Investors are coming to a realization that interest rates are heading higher and the dollar is going to be under pressure.
12:30noon:--Hoovering quite near the MAV support line with bearish spin.
All but six states lost jobs in April and double-digit unemployment persisted in every corner of the country as companies squeezed by the recession slashed payrolls.
1:30pm:--A bearish hammer at the 2nd attempt near the MAV support line.
Obama signs law curbing surprise credit card fees.
2:30pm:--Retracement to near day's high but with a graveyard doji.
Obama made clear that he didn't champion the changes with the intention of helping those who buy more than they can afford through "reckless spending or wishful thinking."
3:30pm:--It's hammering closer to the MAV line.
Crude oil is now up 62cents at USD61.67.GMAC received $7.54 bln in new Treasury aid.
4:00pm:--Close at near day's low with a small morning star bullish spin doji.
The short-sellers have completed their carpet-

bombing of stocks wiping off all of Monday's bullish gain.
They have capitalised on all the bad economic news and now have to turn short covering but with limited upside potential in view of the upcoming tug -of-war between the bondholders and the managementt of General Motors which is facing a June 1st dateline for bankruptcy filing.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Sell in May and go away.

The market is tired.
It's the Halloween indicator.
The old "sell in May and go away" adage may be only partially true this year: Investors may sell a bit but aren't likely to stray very far after they do.
It's a natural pullback to happen along the way.There's going to be some profit-taking. That's the kind of market that we're in.
Wall Street's ability to shrug off bad news--like Thursday's unemployment numbers and Wednesday's drop in gross domestic product--that not so long ago would have triggered major selloffs.
The economic cycles have changed so much in the last 12 months that it's kind of difficult to pinpoint seasonality.
Investors may be wiser to "turn a deaf ear this year.Therefore, one should be open and positioned for this possibility.
This is not an eternal buy-and-hold situation. You have to have a true level of active management.
Recovery isn't going to happen until the real stimulus kicks in.From an economic standpoint that's end of summer, early winter.
Greed is starting to trickle in a little bit,once greed trickles in it's as big an emotion as fear. It will be interesting to see if the (sell in May) adage is real.
So be cautious and on lookout:-June Dow Futures expiry on 19/06/09 is the TRIPLE WITCHING DAY.Seven days before this actual day clear all positions and stay away.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,15/05/09(Futures Expiry Day)
9:30am:--An opening hangman with a weak 40.0 point spike up.
The Treasury decided to make $22 billion in TARP funds available to a number of life insurance companies.
10:30am:--The bullish high with a bearish harami.
In economic news, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat month-over-month, which is in-line with expectations following a 0.1% monthly.
decrease for March.
11:30am:--The bearish engulfing cover back to the day's open.
Financials are also under pressure in the early going.Utilities stocks continue to trade with the most weakness.
12:30noon:--The bearish hammer & engulfing at session low.
This session's lack of direction is largely the result of a lack of leadership.
1:30pm:--Another session low with bearish inverted hammer.
Financials, which have been instrumental to the broader market's advances in recent months, failed to garner support and are now trading with a 2.5% loss.
2:30pm:--Bearish spike down,another session low.
Weakness remains broad-based as stocks trade near their session lows.
3:30pm:--The technical rebound time with a bullish doji spin.
Energy commodities faced significant selling pressure this session.
4:00pm:--Bullish harami.
The healthy pullback has completed on time for the Dow expiry today.Time for a rebound and short-covering.
The Dow index has pulled back right down to the bear critical pivot.If this pattern condition persist till end of month,look to liquidate all positions.
It will form a graveyard doji.
Meanwhile the May candlestick todate is a replica of graveyard doji (white body) but the chances of covering back the long upper shadow is also very promising.A rebound will bring us right to the half section of the shadow only.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

AIG

The government-installed head of AIG told Congress Wednesday the insurance giant is making progress toward repaying U.S. taxpayers by selling many of its foreign assets, but lawmakers questioned whether the plan makes sense and demanded details.
American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Edward Liddy said the company has reduced, but not eliminated, the risk its failure could pose to the global economy despite getting more than $180 billion in federal bailout aid.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday.13/05/09(Futures Expiry:2 days from now.)
9:30am:--A 120.0 points dive-down.
April total retail sales decreased 0.4%, and decreased 0.5% when excluding autos. The April figures failed to meet economists' expectations; the consensus forecast called for total sales to be flat and sales excluding autos to increase 0.2%.
10:30am:--No way of filling up the bearish gap.
A spinning inverted bearish hammer.
11:30am:--Bears at session low.
Stocks are trading near fresh session lows amid widespread weakness.
12:30noon:--The bears still engulfing.
Small- and mid-cap stocks are experiencing steeper losses than shares of companies with larger market capitalizations.
1:30pm:--Hammering out the day's low.
Technical rebound.
2:30pm:--Too late for rebound .
Losses remain broad-based .
3:30pm:--Bearish engulfing.
4:00pm:--Graveyard doji.
Mourning the death of Dow.
The bears have pierced through the MAV line and are inches near the graveyard.
The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, with Nevada, Florida and California showing the highest rates, according to data released Wednesday

Bear Rally stalled.

Tracking the weekly Dow on 12/05/09.
Seems that the Dow is hoovering sideways ahead of Dow Futures Expiry this Friday 15/05/09.
There were hesitation to penetrate the bull pivot and stale bulls are finding its way to the MAV resting line.
The MAV line were tested on May07 & May12.
Looks risky at the moment.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Too Big to fail.

The Obama Administration's main plan for attacking the too-big-to-fail problem calls for giving federal regulators expanded powers to seize and restructure all manner of financial institutions—not just traditional banks—when their failure would threaten the financial system as a whole. In particular, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wants the power extended to include diverse financial giants such as insurance-based conglomerate American International Group (AIG), as well as big holding companies such as Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC), that own both traditional, deposit-taking banks and securities-trading units. But giving federal regulators a greater mandate won't be enough because the giant financial institutions' reach extends around the globe.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,08/05/09.(7 Days to Dow Futures Expiry)
9:30am:-Hefty 90.0 points gap up.
Bullish unshaven bottom with bullish upper shadow spin.
10:30am:A shooting star hangman followed by opening gap filling to half body.
This dictate that it has completed its low.
11:30am:--An inverted hammer at session MAV.
The results of the widely publicized stress test, which showed 10 of the 19 banks that were subject to the test will be required to raise additional capital buffers totalling ~$75 billion, were largely taken to be better than expected.
12:30noon:--The ascending soldiers are taking a lunch break pause.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 539,000, beating the consensus estimate of -600,000.
1:30pm:--A dragonfly doji at bullish zone.
March wholesale inventories declined 1.6% after falling 1.7% in February. The decline was worse than the consensus estimate of -1.0%.
2:30pm:--Dragonfly dojis aiming for day's high.
BofA plans to raise $17 billion in a common stock issue, with the remaining coming from preferred stock to equity conversion and asset sales. Wells Fargo is issuing common stock (~$7.5 bln announced this morning), retaining earnings and utilizing other internally generated sources. Citigroup will expand its previously announced conversion of preferred to common. GMAC said it may issue new common equity, issue mandatory convertible preferred shares or convert existing equity into a form of Tier 1 common equity.
3:30pm:--Pullback technical correction.
The remaining five banks that need more capital are regional banks: Regions Financial (RF 6.53, +1.30), $2.5 billion; SunTrust Banks (STI 20.77, +2.25), $2.2 billion; KeyCorp (KEY 6.97, +0.19), $1.8 billion, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 8.49, +3.14), $1.1 billion; PNC Financial Services (PNC 53.08, +8.61), $600 million.
4:00pm:--Bullish harami with bullish hammer.
It's no joke,the bear rally has completed 3/4 of the 52 weeks range before conversion to a full scale bull rally in the 2nd half year.
Grab stocks now and boogey.
U.S. jobs data and the results of U.S. government bank tests sparked investor optimism throughout the week.
The bulls are on rampage overwhelming the bears and never look back.
Evidence is piling up that the worst part of the recession has ended. But that doesn't mean the pain is over.
The economy remains vulnerable to further shocks, and 13.7 million people are unemployed. The jobless rate rose to 8.9 percent in the new report and still seems headed for a stinging 10 percent.