Recession eases.

The Fed confirmed what Wall Street has already concluded: The U.S. recession is starting to ease.

Investors were encourage by a rebound in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and a decline in business inventories. On President Barack Obama's 100th day in office, the GDP report at least provided signs that the nation is seeing its economic slide start to moderate.

In a bull market, the market ignores bad news. Today, we ignored extremely bad news.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,29/04/09
9:30am:--Bullish 80.0 points spike with an early spin pullback.

First quarter GDP declined 6.1%, which is much worse than the 4.7% decline that was widely expected, but up slightly from the 6.3% drop that was experienced in the fourth quarter.

10:30am:--Bullish spin with spike up up session high.

The upbeat tone was undeterred by a worse-than-expected GDP reading, which showed that first quarter economic activity declined 6.1%. The consensus called for a 4.7% decline. However, news that personal consumption swung from a 4.3% decrease in the fourth quarter to a 2.2% increase in the first quarter has some participants feeling encouranged.

11:30am:--Bearish spin pullback as usual for lunch break.

Stocks have been trading with solid, broad-based gains for the entire session.

12:30noon:--An inverted bullish hammer noted.

Participants await the FOMC's latest policy directive (2:15 PM ET), which is expected to keep the target interest rate between 0.00% and 0.25%.

1;30pm:--Bulls still holding at session high.

The Fed said that household spending has seen signs of stabilization, but will continue to be pressured by job losses, decreased housing wealth and tight credit conditions.

2:30pm:--Bullish spike up on FOMC news.

The FOMC believe that inflation will remain subdued, with a risk of persistent inflation at levels below those that promote economic and price stability.
The vote to leave the fed funds rate and quantitative measures unchanged was unanimous.

3:30pm:--The normal practice,pullback to day's MAV.

The DOE crude oil inventories report this morning revealed a build of over 4 million barrels.
4:00pm:--A breakway bull.

Bullish follow through

The advance first quarter GDP report indicated that the U.S. economy fell 6.1% between January and March. A drop of 4.7% had been expected. Despite the ugly headline number, participants weren't deterred from bidding stocks higher.

The Dow Index is now about at Pivot month peak and we are in a bear rally.

Any pullback in the next half month will be back to month's MAV.

The road is still bumpy ahead of banks stress test results.

Stress Methodology

The 19 companies that hold one-half of the loans in the U.S. banking system won't be allowed to fail -- even if they fared poorly on the stress tests.
The Federal Reserve on Friday said the government is prepared to rescue any of the banks that underwent "stress tests" and were deemed vulnerable if the recession worsened sharply.
The Fed reinforced its view that major financial firms are "too big to fail," and the government must do The federal examiners—eventually comprising a team of more than 150 from the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.—have been working since late February on the analysis of bank holding companies with more than $100 billion in assets at the end of 2008. The banks collectively hold two-thirds of the assets, or more than half the loans, in the U.S. banking system, according to the Federal Reserve. whatever is necessary to save them, said former Fed examiner Mark Williams.

The analysis looked at the banks' ability to withstand two economic scenarios: one mirroring the consensus of economic experts on the course of the downturn through 2010 and the second modeling a worse-than-expected course of economic activity.
The Federal Reserve, in its Apr. 24 white paper on the methodology behind the stress test>, noted that "the assessment is a 'what if' exercise intended to help supervisors gauge the extent of additional capital needs across a wide range of potential economic outcomes." The central bank noted that the need for more capital "is not a measure of the current solvency or viability of the firm."
Among the factors considered in the stress test scenarios were gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, and the direction of housing prices. The stress tests measure how the banks will perform if unemployment rises to between 8.8% and 10.3% in 2010; the economy grows by 2.1% and 0.5%; and home prices drop by 4% to 7%. To determine a bank's capital needs, regulators looked at a host of different measures, including Tier 1 capital.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,24/04/09.


9:30am:-a 70.0 points bull spike.
Durable goods orders slipped in March, but fell far less than Wall Street expected.
10:30am:-no sign of gap-up refill.
Bullish candle.Sales of new single-family homes dropped, but inventories plummeted at a record pace.
11:30am:--Session high breakout.
American Express shooting up nearly 21 percent to $25.30 a day after reporting results that topped analysts' expectations, helped by aggressive cost cutting.
12:30noon:--Still holding at session high but with hangman.
Somehow or rather must pullback to MAV at this hour.Ford Motor Co also posted a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss and said it was on track to at least break even in 2011 and did not expect to seek U.S. government loans, sending its shares up 11.4 percent to $5.
1:30pm:--Bearish hammer,sign of pullback to MAV.
Software giant Microsoft Corp provided the biggest boost to the Nasdaq, up 10.5 percent at $20.91, after investors cheered cost-cutting efforts.
2:30pm:--The bullish engulfing after completing the MAV.
Shares of online retail giant Amazon.com, up 4.8 percent at $84.46, gave another lift to the Nasdaq after beating profit and sales estimates.
3:30pm:--Hammer and bearish top spin.
The Federal Reserve said the top 19 U.S. banks need to hold a "substantial" amount of capital above regulatory requirements to weather a potential worsening of the economic recession, according to the Fed's white paper on bank stress tests.
4:00pm:--A nearly 80.0 points dive.
A fake last minute bull.We are in for another hefty pullback follow through.

Friday's inverted hammer fall short of penetrating Monday's full body.
Any pullback will be within the half naked body.
We are in the bullish zone.

Stressful market.

The Federal Reserve is expected to detail its methodology for the tests on Friday and release the test results May 4.
With all the major banks having reported first-quarter earnings -- which came in mostly better than expected -- all eyes are now on the stress tests, which are designed to determine which banks are healthy, which need more capital, and which might fail if the recession worsens.
Investors are worried that the results might reveal more pain in the industry than feared. Details of the tests could easily rattle a market that has become more upbeat over the past several weeks, driven by the hope that the economy was beginning to improve, or at the very least not worsening.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told a congressional panel earlier this week that the "vast majority" of banks have more capital than they need. But analysts warn that banks deemed to be weak could suffer at the hands of investors.

Tracking the Dow on Thursday,23/04/09

9:30am:--Open with a small bullish spin with bearish engulfing.

The upbeat tone follows much better earnings results from Apple (AAPL) than were expected. Apple earned $1.33 per share during its most recent quarter, but analysts were expecting just $1.09 per share.

10:30am:--Early pullback with bullish shortcover.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 totaled 640,000, which is spot on with economists' consensus estimate, but up 27,000 from the prior week.

11:30am:--Another session low with dragonfly doji seen.

The annualized number of existing homes sold during March fell 140,000 to 4.57 million from the prior month.

12:30noon:--Bullish candle.

Financial stocks continue to sport healthy gains.Action around bank stocks comes one day ahead of the Treasury's bank stress tests announcement.

1:30pm:--Near Day's opening high with inverted hammer.

Better-than-expected earnings results from several widely held stocks helped the major indices start the session on strong footing.

2:30pm:--Bullish spike up.

June crude oil rose this session to $49.50 per contract, up 1.3% for the session.

3:30pm:--Pullback to session MAV with another bullish spin.

Bank stocks bounded as participants prepare for the Treasury's announcement regarding bank stress test measures. The announcement is scheduled for tomorrow, but actual stress test results won't be released until May 4.

4:00pm:--Breakaway bulls.

Bulls will be on rampage again.
The other half body of Monday's candlestick is waiting to be covered aggressively.The various spinning jenny in the last two session are on standby mode.

Go shopping for stocks now.

Black Monday blues.

Bank of America claimed a $2.2 billion gain due to accounting adjustments related to its Merrill Lynch acquisition in January. BofA also notched a $1.9 billion gain from selling its stake in a Chinese bank.BofA, for instance, lost $1.77 billion on credit cards - one of its most important businesses - in the first quarter.
In all the bank's results declared so far credit quality has deteriorated especially in the housing and credit card portfolios. We anticipate the losses to rise further through the end of [the year.]"
In addition to bailout money, most banks are benefiting from the availability of short-term loans from the Federal Reserve at interest rates as low as 0.
Recent earnings reveal little about efforts to get billions in money-losing mortgage-backed securities off the banks' balance sheet - the problem that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's public-private rescue plan is intended to solve.
And Geithner - chief administrator of the bank "stress tests" - said that before the economy recovers, "there's going to be a period where it's going to feel very bad still and very uncertain."

Tracking the Dow on 20/04/09.(start of new futures month)

9:30am:--A 120.0 points gap down.

The bears are back.The White House will focus on credit card abuses.

Bearish bottom spin.
10:30am:--No sign of gap covering.

Now at session low.Bank of America (BAC) announced first quarter pretax, preprovision income of $19 billion, exceeding expectations. Enthusiasm for the bottom line results has been put into check since Bank of America increased its credit loss provisions by nearly $5 billion since the fourth quarter.

11:30am:--Graveyard dojis seen at this session low.

Just hitting news wires, leading economic indicators for March showed a decline of 0.3%. A decline of 0.2% was expected.

12:30noon:--Hangmans waiting at lunch break.

European Central Bank President Trichet that indicated any future cuts to Europe's target interest rate would be by 25 basis points.

1:30pm:--Bearish spinning bears.

Losses among small-and mid-cap stocks are outpacing those of the major headline indices.

2:30pm:--Graveyard doji again.

Stock market participants dump other bank stocks en masse just because of Bank of America announcement.

3:30pm:--It's injury time.Difficult to score any more goals.

Gold prices are also being bolstered by a strengthening dollar.

4:00pm:--It's a hell day.

It's the great work of the hedge fund vultures.Today financials hammering is ahead of Obama's stress test result.

They've cleaned up the whole week profits by selling on good news which they've priced in thru their various prior warnings.

Soon they are going to short-cover again when the bad news comes in.
They are very satisfied to bring the index back to the month's MAV.

The stress test.

Congressional hearings are scheduled next week on the risks posed by large financial institutions and the role of local governments in administering stimulus funds.
In an attempt to assess banks' capital needs, the U.S. government is testing how they would fare under more adverse economic conditions than are expected. The results are due at the end of April.
Once the "stress tests" are finalized and the capital needs are determined, banks will have six months to raise capital in the private market or could take an infusion of government funds.
The Obama administration is finding itself in a potentially no-win situation as it prepares to release details Friday about the methodology used in the tests, and at least partial results May 4. The so-called stress tests will determine whether the banks need more government bailout money and the $700-billion rescue fund needs to be replenished.
No banks will fail the test, administration officials have said, but the results will determine whether they have to raise more capital. If they can't do that in six months, the government will step in with funds to shore up operations at the banks, which are deemed too big to fail.

Tracking the Dow on Friday,17/04/09(Futures Expiry Day)

9:30am:--20.0 points spike up.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed that U.S. consumers have more confidence in the economy than they have had since the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, the latest in a spate of data suggesting the economic slump may be easing.

10:30am:--Gap fully covered,low with inverted bull hammer.

GE and Citigroup both posted better-than-expected results.

11:30am:--Ascending soldiers to near session high.

"The rate of deceleration in the economy is slowing," said David Lutz, managing director of trading at Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets in Baltimore.

12:30noon:--Spike down with a bullish engulfing.

General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Fritz Henderson said Friday that a bankruptcy filing is "probable" because of the restructuring goals GM must meet to get more government loans, but that isn't the company's preferred option.

1:30pm:--Day's high breakout.

In a conference call with reporters, Henderson said GM is working on two parallel plans: one that involves bankruptcy and one that doesn't.It would need $4.6 billion in the quarter, and that hasn't changed, he said.

2:30pm:--Shooting star high.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that financial innovation is good for the economy but must be accompanied by proper regulation.

3:30pm:--The pullback to MAV.

An investment company run by the head of the Obama administration's auto task force has been accused of paying more than $1 million to an aide to New York's former comptroller in a bid to win a lucrative deal with the state pension fund.

4:00pm:--A bearish hammer below the MAV.

A cautious follow through of bears.

Friday's spinning top is covering the top portion of the candlestick.Any further pullback will be covering back the white bodies of Wednesday & Thursday candlestick..

Meanwhile we have to be resilient to such temporary pullback.

Votality swing today also due to Futures expiry.

We have penetrated to bull pivot and day's ahead will still be quite safe despite all the threatening speech by some of the hedge fund managers.

The start of Bank Rally.

Financial stocks will be in the spotlight Friday as banks continue to issue earnings reports that show surprising profits, and even growth, in the midst of recession and write-downs.
Citigroup will be closely watched as a barometer of the industry, and the economy. If it does poorly, investors might dismiss gains by Wells and Goldman as company specific.
The suprisingly strong earnings reports have led the Financial Select SPDR ( XLF - news - people ), an exchange-traded fund that tracks financial stocks, to advance 19.2% over the past five trading days, well ahead of the 2.7% gain made by the S&P 500 index.see any signs of improvement would be a more positive sign for the broader economy.

Tracking the Dow on 16/04/09.(The Eve of Dow Index Futures Expiry)
9:30am:--A 50.0 points gap-up with bearish doji.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted first quarter earnings of $0.40 per share, which is better than the $0.32 per share that was widely expected.

10:30am:--Gap fully filled with another bearish hammer.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is below the 660,000 claims that were expected.

11:30am:--Inverted bullish hammer.

March housing starts totaled 510,000, falling short of the 540,000 starts that were expected.

12:30 noon:--Dragonfly doji hoovering at session MAV.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for April came in at -24.4, which isn't quite as bad as the -32.0 that was expected. Though the reading remains negative, it did mark an improvement from the -35.0 reading that was seen last month.

1:30pm:--Bearish 2nd session opener with another dragonfly doji.

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated in a speech that a modest economic recovery is likely to occur in the second half of this fiscal year, but that job losses threaten consumer confidence.

2:30pm:--The ascending soldiers.

The Nasdaq continues to outperform its counterparts, while the Dow remains a laggard.

3:30pm:--Day's high with a shooting star.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.24, +0.68) provided leadership to the financial sector for the entire session after the company announced first quarter earnings results of $0.40 per share, which bested the $0.32 per share that was widely expected. The company reminded investors that all isn't well just yet by reporting higher loss provisions.

4:00pm:--Bearish hammer.

A follow through lower open.

Investors, encouraged by recent signs the economic slump may be abating, bet that technology earnings would show upside surprises.

The Dow index futures expiry tomorrow Friday will see the breakout zone again.
People are starting to feel that maybe there's a slight chance this is not just a bear market rally
In a sign that investor fear may be receding, the CBOE Volatility Index (Chicago Options:^VIX - News), or VIX, dropped for a third straight day, hitting its lowest close since late September.

Rich be richer.

Robert Kiyosaki :
"Only cheap people buy on price," "Just because something is cheap doesn't mean it's worth the cost."
Jon Stewart of 'The Daily Show' :
He was right in saying he thought it "disingenuous" to advise people to invest for the long term through their retirement plans while knowing full well that traders could steal Americans' retirement money by trading in and out of the market.
Jim Cramer:
Most traders like Cramer realize that investing in mutual funds for the long term is financial suicide.

The Fed's fear.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting expressed concern about downside risks to an outlook for activity that was already weak.
Federal Reserve officials feared the U.S. economy might fall into a self-reinforcing cycle of rising unemployment and slumping business and consumer spending, making credit tighter in a weak financial system.
The outlook prompted the Federal Open Market Committee in a unanimous vote to boost its open-market purchases of bonds by $1.15 trillion, continuing its unprecedented increase in money supplied to the economy. The U.S. central bank has used its own balance sheet to provide financing for markets in commercial paper, asset-backed securities and mortgage bonds, markets it deems critical for financial stability and economic recovery.
Their projections showed “the unemployment rate rising more steeply into early next year,” the minutes said. Policy makers expected further job cuts “though perhaps at a gradually diminishing rate.”

Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,08/04/09

9:30am:--Mild gap-up of 30.0 points.

The absence of any new headline or economic release.

10:30am:--Gap fully covered.

An inverted bullish hammer.The Treasury plans to extend bailout funds to struggling life insurance companies, which is helping lift shares of beaten down companies like Lincoln National (LNC) and Hartford (HIG).

11:30am:--Resistance line broken.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is currently holding an open meeting to discuss possible short sale restrictions.The first recommended approach to regulate short selling uses a short sale price test approach, while the second uses circuit breakers.

12:30 noon:--Bullish spike up.

Earnings season began unceremoniously last evening when Dow component Alcoa (AA 7.78, -0.01) reported a deeper-than-expected loss. The shares are currently trading in mixed fashion.

1:30pm:--The height with a shooting star.

Just hitting news wires, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 meeting indicate that the committee members felt that as the U.S. economy was deteriorating, foreign activity was softening, according to Reuters.

2:30pm:--Bearish spike to MAV line.

Financials have been a focus of the recent selling effort.

3:30pm:--The days low followed by ascending soldiers.

Despite the strength of insurers, the financial sector, as a whole, lagged the broader market for virtually the entire session.

4:00pm:--A small bullish hammer.

Shorties are again hitting the market.

The support line has been breached and rebounded.This pair of candlestick is the morning star.The other half-naked body will be covered again very soon.

Insurance and technology shares led the market higher in a volatile day Wednesday, breaking a two-day slide. But a dim view of the economy from the Federal Reserve and jitters over looming earnings reports kept buyers in check.

The mini-rally.

Where's the epicentre?
Mark-to-market accounting rules, the long-despised bogeyman keeping banks' toxic assets from being sold, were altered substantially, kickstarting the Wall Street rally.
The Group of 20 world economic summit yielded a $20 billion pledge to resuscitate the global economy.
Auto sales numbers, while still dauntingly low, beat expectations and analysts foresee more lending to get the sales pace accelerated.
Add some stabilizing in housing numbers and improvement in investor sentiment to the mix and you had both technicians and analysts of fundamentals cheering on the surge that has welcomed in the second quarter.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,03/04/09 (10 market days to Dow Expiry)
9:30am:--An opening bearish doji.

Upper shadow shorter than bottom.The play for today.

Unemployment zoomed to 8.5 percent last month, the highest in a quarter-century, as employers axed 663,000 more workers and pushed the nation's jobless ranks past 13 million.

10:30am:--Lower shadow penetrated & below.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank will do everything it can to stabilize banks.

11:30am:--Inverted bullish hammer from low.

Financial stocks rose after Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said the Fed will use "all of its tools" to stabilize markets.

12:30noon:--The usual noon session slowdown to around MAV level.

It's hoovering in the bull county with a graveyard doji looking for pullback.

1:30pm:--The bullish harami.

Report from the Institute for Supply Management showed the U.S. services sector shrank for the sixth straight month in March as recession-weary consumers tightened their belts.

2:30pm:--The shooting star.

Strong movers:-Magna International Inc., up $4.48 at $33.70

-Kimco Realty Corp., up $1.91 at $9.40

-Dow Chemical Co., up $1.06 at $11

3:30pm:--Pullback to MAV with a dragonfly doji.

4:00pm:--Artificially spike up top close positive.

Financial stocks were the last minute Benarnke's tool in this spike.
Research in Motion (RIMM) posted robust fourth-quarter results and lifted the tech stocks.
The Hammer,the April Fool Trap.
Despite all the rotten economic figures,the indicies still climb which by right be reflective of a pullback.

As the first quarter earnings season begins, a debate rages over whether stocks will be able to rally on or instead roll over on weak corporate profits and dismal economic news.
In the coming week, first quarter earnings kicks off with a report form Alcoa [AA 8.17 -0.01 (-0.12%) ] on Tuesday. A handful of other reports are due during the week, including Bed, Bath and Beyond [BBBY 27.60 0.95 (+3.56%) ]Tuesday, and Constellation Brands [STZ 12.20 0.02 (+0.16%) ]and Family Dollar [FDO 31.90 -0.23 (-0.72%) ]Wednesday. Chevron [CVX 70.48 0.17 (+0.24%) ]gives an interim update on Thursday.