Thursday, April 16, 2009

The start of Bank Rally.

Financial stocks will be in the spotlight Friday as banks continue to issue earnings reports that show surprising profits, and even growth, in the midst of recession and write-downs.
Citigroup will be closely watched as a barometer of the industry, and the economy. If it does poorly, investors might dismiss gains by Wells and Goldman as company specific.
The suprisingly strong earnings reports have led the Financial Select SPDR ( XLF - news - people ), an exchange-traded fund that tracks financial stocks, to advance 19.2% over the past five trading days, well ahead of the 2.7% gain made by the S&P 500 index.see any signs of improvement would be a more positive sign for the broader economy.
Tracking the Dow on 16/04/09.(The Eve of Dow Index Futures Expiry)
9:30am:--A 50.0 points gap-up with bearish doji.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted first quarter earnings of $0.40 per share, which is better than the $0.32 per share that was widely expected.
10:30am:--Gap fully filled with another bearish hammer.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is below the 660,000 claims that were expected.
11:30am:--Inverted bullish hammer.
March housing starts totaled 510,000, falling short of the 540,000 starts that were expected.
12:30 noon:--Dragonfly doji hoovering at session MAV.
The Philadelphia Fed Index for April came in at -24.4, which isn't quite as bad as the -32.0 that was expected. Though the reading remains negative, it did mark an improvement from the -35.0 reading that was seen last month.
1:30pm:--Bearish 2nd session opener with another dragonfly doji.
Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated in a speech that a modest economic recovery is likely to occur in the second half of this fiscal year, but that job losses threaten consumer confidence.
2:30pm:--The ascending soldiers.
The Nasdaq continues to outperform its counterparts, while the Dow remains a laggard.
3:30pm:--Day's high with a shooting star.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.24, +0.68) provided leadership to the financial sector for the entire session after the company announced first quarter earnings results of $0.40 per share, which bested the $0.32 per share that was widely expected. The company reminded investors that all isn't well just yet by reporting higher loss provisions.
4:00pm:--Bearish hammer.
A follow through lower open.
Investors, encouraged by recent signs the economic slump may be abating, bet that technology earnings would show upside surprises.
The Dow index futures expiry tomorrow Friday will see the breakout zone again.
People are starting to feel that maybe there's a slight chance this is not just a bear market rally
In a sign that investor fear may be receding, the CBOE Volatility Index (Chicago Options:^VIX - News), or VIX, dropped for a third straight day, hitting its lowest close since late September.