Thursday, May 20, 2010

Filling the candlestick lower shadow.

The free fall on the 6th of May was a computerised settings by certain authorities in the exchange and not a human error.
Compared to July'09 till Nov'09 session,whenever the market falters either the President or Federal Reserve will come out with some goodies.
As seen from the chart,between November'09 and at end February'10,the use of Dubai crisis theme wipe off the whole quarter.
Whereas between March till May,the use of Greece crisis theme was used to wipe off the same quarter.
The candlestick pattern long lower shadow is now in play with many aftershocks.They have plans to complete the lower shadow coverings before Memorial Day.
Investor confidence was rattled by Germany's decision to ban risky bets on bonds, stocks and credit protection.
On the 6th May was a hangman,and the whole chart scenerio was to complete the head and shoulder pattern.

A toppish hangman candlestick was also formed.Yesterday's candlestick has completely covered the lower shadow of this week Monday's pattern.Meanwhile, France and Germany have moved to present a unified front on EU market regulation.
London's Footsie yesterday has also completely covered Monday's candlestick lower shadow.It is now at the neckline.
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will confer with finance officials in Britain and Germany next week about ways to restore global confidence in the financial system.

Monday, May 17, 2010

The super fast high tech traders.

It is the hot new thing on Wall Street, a way for a handful of traders to master the stock market, peek at investors’ orders and, critics say, even subtly manipulate share prices.
It is called high-frequency trading — and it is suddenly one of the most talked-about and mysterious forces in the markets.
Powerful computers, some housed right next to the machines that drive marketplaces like the New York Stock Exchange, enable high-frequency traders to transmit millions of orders at lightning speed and, their detractors contend, reap billions at everyone else’s expense.
These systems are so fast they can outsmart or outrun other investors, humans and computers alike. And after growing in the shadows for years, they are generating lots of talk.
Nearly everyone on Wall Street is wondering how hedge funds and large banks like Goldman Sachs are making so much money so soon after the financial system nearly collapsed. High-frequency trading is one answer.
And when a former Goldman Sachs programmer was accused of stealing secret computer codes — software that a federal prosecutor said could “manipulate markets in unfair ways” — it only added to the mystery. Goldman acknowledges that it profits from high-frequency trading, but disputes that it has an unfair advantage.
Yet high-frequency specialists clearly have an edge over typical traders, let alone ordinary investors.If an individual investor doesn’t have the means to keep up, they’re at a huge disadvantage.
Powerful algorithms — “algos,” in industry parlance — execute millions of orders a second and scan dozens of public and private marketplaces simultaneously. They can spot trends before other investors can blink, changing orders and strategies within milliseconds.
High-frequency traders often confound other investors by issuing and then canceling orders almost simultaneously. Loopholes in market rules give high-speed investors an early glance at how others are trading. And their computers can essentially bully slower investors into giving up profits — and then disappear before anyone even knows they were there.
It’s become a technological arms race, and what separates winners and losers is how fast they can move.Markets need liquidity, and high-frequency traders provide opportunities for other investors to buy and sell.
While markets are supposed to ensure transparency by showing orders to everyone simultaneously, a loophole in regulations allows marketplaces like Nasdaq to show traders some orders ahead of everyone else in exchange for a fee.
Tracking the Dow,Monday 17/05/10.(4 market days to index/options expiry)
9:30am:--The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 19.1 in May from 31.9 in April to record its worst reading since January.A shooting star opener.
10:30am:--Bearish candlestick coupled with hangman.
11:30am:--A new session low,another hangman. The financial sector fallen under a sudden bout of selling pressure.
12:30noon:--A technical rebound,but was flat .
1:30pm:--Attempt to retrace to MAV resistance line fall short.
2:30pm:--Commodities came under sharp pressure this session.A second attempt to break the MAV reistance.Bullish.
3:30pm:--Resistance penetrated and now pullback to MAV support.An indecision doji followed by the bulls.
4:00pm:--A weak bullish closing.
A bullish dragonfly candlestick formation after completing the pullback of the whole body of 6th of May candlestick.The long lower shadow was utilised a quarter part of it failing to reach the pivot of 10,336.99 points.
The 3rd day before index expiry will see more aggressive short covering of rollover contracts.

Stocks move in tandem with the index.

The Dow 5 days weekly Chart.(5 days to index/options futures expiry.)
The 7th day before the index expiry, the market makers created a bull trap and subsequently hammered it down completing the previous day big crash(X6/5/10) candlestick body.The person or authorities involved have also intelligently chosen the middle of month (the Pivot)--Battle of Midway.
So who says it is technical glitch or some golden fingers that causes the error?They'll be investigating.Don't count on it.They'll be using market traders short- memory to sweep it under the red carpet.
This particular stock(Citigroup) peaks on the 26th April 2010 when it started announcing its first quarterly results.Thereafter begins to slide and never look back.
The U.S. government owns 27 percent of the bank's shares, a stake it acquired when it gave Citi $45 billion in bailout money in 2008 and 2009. Citi has paid back $20 billion in preferred shares, but another $25 billion was converted to common stock last year.The Treasury on even date announced that it is selling its 27% stake.So they must have given a hand for the shorties and market makers to further executed the crash(X6/5/10).
Citi's candlestick chart shows that those manipulators have completed their shorting right up to the crash day lower shadow.Great job indeed.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Short sellers cartel at work.

In an age of technology, truth has started to take its stand against the mammoth cartel of the spider web of giant Investment Banks and Dealer Networks who are fronts for the governments and shadowy agencies whom they represent. Truth shall win and they better know this for their own sake.
The Gold and Silver Manipulation spanning decades (going back well back into 1980s) has now taken mammoth proportions, one that could bankrupt not just a few banks but entire countries along with their central banks. Prime in this network are the Bank of England and the FED reserve who have been caught on the wrong side.
Hitler spoke proudly about Gold manipulation “Gold is a state policy” meaning anyone found holding Gold will be punished. It is almost as if we are living in Hitler market in the precious metals pit.
For the first time now, the CFTC (The regulator) has a whistle blower testimony to make a legal move against the cartel of JPM and other trader network. In an incredible audio interview, the London based former Metals trader, Andrew Maguire, chronicled the silver manipulation, Trade by Trade in his running commentary to CFTC.
Tracking the Dow on Tuesday,11/05/10.(8 market days to index/options expiry).
Asian Index futures expiry:28/05/10
9:30am:--A bearish 100.0 points spike down.Worry about eurozone countries underlying problems unresolved.A bullish inverted hammer follow suit.
10:30am:--Opening gap down is now covered half body with a slight oullback.
11:30am:--Wholesale inventories for March increased 0.4%, which is slightly less than the consensus.Opening gap is now fully filled at session high.
12:30noon:--All three major indices have pushed into positive territory across the board.Hitting a new session high with bearish spin.
1:30pm:--A bearish hammer seen near the top.Eurozone worries still lingering.
2:30pm:--A new high of the day was soon being engulfed by three black crows back to the opening which is currently the MAV support line.
3:30pm:--Indicies got hanged back to the bear pivot.
4:00pm:--Bearish engulfing with attempt to test the bear support line.
The stock market showed signs of stability Tuesday as major indexes held on to most of their rebound from last week's big drop.
Tuesday bearish candlestick is a bearish spinning top so another pullback to the half body is necessary to form a pair.
The 7th day before the index/options expiry will see another volatility rebound.Signs of rollover contracts will start to emerge with further short-coverings.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Criteria to halt and suspend the market.

CIRCUIT-BREAKER LEVELS FOR Second QUARTER 2010
In the event of a 1050-POINT decline in the DJIA (10 percent):
Before 2 p.m.1-HOUR HALT
2-2:30 p.m.30-MIN. HALT
After 2:30 p.m.NO HALT
In the event of a 2150-POINT decline in the DJIA (20 percent):
Before 1 p.m.2-HOUR HALT
1-2 p.m.1-HOUR HALT
After 2 p.m.MARKET CLOSES
In the event of a 3200-POINT decline in the DJIA (30 percent), regardless of the time, MARKET CLOSES for the day.

NYSE Circuit Breakers
In response to the market breaks in October 1987 and October 1989 the New York Stock Exchange instituted circuit breakers to reduce volatility and promote investor confidence. By implementing a pause in trading, investors are given time to assimilate incoming information and the ability to make informed choices during periods of high market volatility.
The NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ OMX: NDAQ) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX) are committed to working closely with each other, the Securities and Exchange Commission, other regulators and all market participants to determine the cause of Thursday’s market plunge and to develop effective solutions promoting greater market stability, efficiency and transparency.
NYSE Euronext (NYX) is a leading global operator of financial markets and provider of innovative trading technologies.. The company's exchanges in Europe and the United States trade equities, futures, options, fixed-income and exchange-traded products.
The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. is the world's largest exchange company. It delivers trading, exchange technology and public company services across six continents, with more than 3,600 listed companies.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,07/05/10.(10 market days to index/options futures expiry).Japanese index futures expiry:14/05/10
9:30am:--Greece lightning contagion jitters spillover.Bearish 50.0 points gap down.
10:30am:-- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 290,000 in April.But the Unemployment Rate increased from 9.7% to 9.9%.The excuse to hammer down finding 1st hour low.
11:30am:--After breaking the MAV resistance line being hit by shooting star.
12:30noon:--Pullback to MAV support line with a bullish inverted hammer embeded.
1:30pm:--The afternoon session opens with a weaker note sslightly below the MAV resistance.Bearish dojis were overriden by the bulls.
2:30pm:--Volatility remains strong amid this session's whipsaw action.Instances of breakway bears but were holding well above the bear pivot support.
3:30pm:--The actual bear pivot support line has been hit with bearish engulfing candlesticks but a corresponding doji spin near the bottom noted.
4:00pm:--A bullish inverted hammer below the MAV resistance line.
The long lower candlestick shadow line is just an inch falling shy to be covered to the half shadow.
The shorties and market makers have finally make an early low settings for the year.
As till todate for MAY,the bears have scored -1,222 points versus the bulls +167 points.
Friday's bearish doji can signal to cover fully till the half shadow line.Since it closes slightly below the MAV resistance,it also has every opportunity to make a tremendous push into the bull county.

Friday, May 7, 2010

The Dow Miracle Plunge..

Never has been in the history of the Dow,an intraday plunge of 1,000 points.The world is really guessing and wondering why U.S. stocks plunged 9 percent in the last two hours of trading on Thursday before clawing back some of the losses.
Could it be the Greece crisis fear that is going to spread to other European countries and therafter spillover onto the US? Or maybe there is a genius who managed to hack the trading system with the help of hedge funds short sellers taking advantage of the slackening rules.Another financial conspiracy.What has happened to the circuit-breaker?
Some stocks dropped to nearly zero before rebounding. The following is a list of some of the biggest drops, as well as some large cap companies that had significant drops.
(COMPANY) (PREVIOUS PRICE) (LOW PRICE) (PCT CHANGE )
EEXCELON (EXC.N) ($34.68) ($0.41) (-99 )
BOSTON BEER (SAM.N) ($47.98) ($0) (-100)
CENTERPOINT (CNP.N) ($13.13) ($0.01) (-99.9)
BROWN & BROWN (BRO.N) ($15.93) ($8.04) (-49.5)
IOWA TELECOM SERVICES (IWA.N) ($15.67) ($2.66) (-83)
CASEY'S GENERAL (CASY.O) ($35.00) ($30.24) (-13.6)
EBIX INC (EBIX.O) ($14.26) ($1.01) (-92.9)
PROCTER & GAMBLE (PNG.N) ($59.41) ($39.37) (-33.7 )
APPLE (AAPL.O) ($240.63) ($199.25) (-14.43)
M (MMM.N) ($81.86) ($67.98) (-17 )

Regarding the Greece bailout package of USD145 billion loan,Germany will be contributing $29.6 billion(28%),France 16.8 billion euros(20.7%),Finland 1.6 billion euros while the balance will be managed by the International Monetary Fund.
In another scenerio, Goldman Sachs has agreed to pay $450,000 to settle regulators' allegations that it violated a rule related to short-selling of stocks in 2008-2009, it was announced Tuesday(4/5/10).
The banking company did not admit or deny wrongdoing in paying the civil penalties in agreements with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York Stock Exchange's regulatory arm.
While Goldman neither admitted nor denied the allegations, it did agree to refrain from future violations of the short-selling rule.

The SEC put in the short-selling rule as a temporary emergency measure at the height of market turmoil in October 2008 as the financial crisis struck with full force. The rule expired in July 2009 but the agency made it permanent that month.
Some financial industry officials have maintained that the SEC's rule brought unintended negative consequences, such as wilder price swings and turbulence in the market.
Former Goldman Sachs Programmer stole company's Proprietory Code.
Thursday,06/05/10,Dow Crashes on 11th day before index/options expiry.
Window dressing before the end of 1st Half Year Financial closing.
The huge intraday plunge on this Black Thursday 06/05/10 has totally wipe off the whole of this year's early quarter gains.
From the technical chart it can be inferred that this has been a set up by certain quarters.
The year started off with a bearish January month having covered last December's half candlestick body.
In February it should have covered it fully but never being fulfilled which means that there is still room for a pullback.
As March is the end of first quarter where most companies will be having tax filing and also financial year reporting month,a bullish unshaven bottom candlestick was formed.
April saw a doji star spinning top,blowing at the small upper shadow.Lights off.
When MayDay comes,some machos took advantage of current prevailing negative news and using the old myth of :"Sell in May and Go Away" settings to trigger this plunge.
Normally a plunge like this only happens in derivative trading where all stop loss orders are being hit and followed by a hefty intra minute rebound.
This is a very well executed agenda with the candlestick having a very long lower shadow which is intended to be used in further short-selling up till the level set.Never take this as a surprise,it's real which I 've encounterd in index futures trading.
Naked short selling allows market manipulators to drive down shares artificially.US hedge funds are on hand to launch a bear raid like today since the financial overhaul proposal by the Obama's Administration have not covered the regulatory on such instituitions.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

The European May Day Halloween.

Historical market data indicates that all of an investor's gain would have been generated during the winter season's six months. Further, researchers have found that this seasonal impact is pervasive – present in numerous countries, significant in size, and statistically robust over time.
Wall Street has long been aware of this seasonality trend, generating an old maxim to “SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY”.
It was reported there that in 36 of 37 countries studied, average stock market returns from Halloween through May Day (the so-called "winter" months) were significantly higher than equity returns from May Day through Halloween (the "summer months").
In fact , the study found, the summer months' returns have averaged so much less than those of the winter months that almost all of the stock market's long-term returns have been produced during the winter months . That implies that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk -- a winning combination that would show up in a much improved risk-adjusted performance.
Over the last ten years (since 1997), the "Sell in May" strategy for the U.K. FTSE All-Share index has gained 95 per cent, while the "Buy in May" strategy has lost 19 per cent. The All-Share is up 57 per cent for those who remained continuously invested.
The seasonality factor and the cyclical re-rating of equity markets appears to have run its course and seems to be also the influential factor.
The Dow Wednesday is 12 market days to index/options expiry.(Pivot month 2nd Q)
Nikkei futures expires 14/05/10.
9:30am:-- Hefty 150.0 points bearish gap down.
An uninspiring latest ADP Employment Report added to the continuing rout.
10:30am:--Opening gap down fully covered by the bulls.
11:30am:--Slight pullback to session bull pivot support.
12:30noon:--After finding the morning high,index is now pulling back to the MAV support level.
1:30pm:--Bearish harami near the MAV support line.
2:30pm:--Index pullback to the day's low for a second bottom.
3:30pm:--A retracement to the MAV resistance failed.
4:00pm:--Bullish spin near the low.
Finally the whole of April's bullish candlestick has been wiped off by the bears to find a lower shadow since it has an unshaven bottom at that time.
Now the cleansing is over and time for a healthy rebound.
This market is deliberately being set upon by the halloween vampires,a season where S & P ratings,the Moody's ratings start their mischief of downgrading here and there.This is also an indirect insider trading assisting the short- sellers and their cronies.By harping about worrying and concern about the European debts,these are just their common gimmicks.The IMF and the Germans have already come to their rescue.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Oil slick environmental devastation.

Oil from a massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico oozed into Louisiana’s ecologically rich wetlands Friday as storms threatened to frustrate desperate protection efforts.
The explosion of the rig Deepwater Horizon was due to a leak from a blown-out well a mile underwater thus causing the seafloor spill.Swiss-based Transocean Ltd's Deepwater Horizon sank on April 22, two days after it exploded and caught fire while finishing a well for BP Plc about 40 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The oil slick could become the nation’s worst environmental disaster in decades, threatening to eclipse even the Exxon Valdez in scope. It imperils hundreds of species of fish, birds and other wildlife along the Gulf Coast, one of the world’s richest seafood grounds, teeming with shrimp, oysters and other marine life. Oil swallowed by animals can cause anemia, hemorrhaging and other problems.
The spewing oil — about 210,000 gallons a day — comes from a well drilled by the rig Deepwater Horizon, which exploded in flames April 20 and sank two days later. BP was operating the rig that was owned by Transocean Ltd. The Coast Guard is working with BP to deploy floating booms, skimmers and chemical dispersants, and set controlled fires to burn the oil off the water’s surface.
Monday's Dow is 15 days to index/options futures expiry.
9:30am:--Bullish 60.0 points gap up.The EU & IMF will provide Greece with $146 billion in financial aid.
10:30am:--A slight session high pullback.Personal income and spending data for March in line with consensus.
11:30am:--The ISM Manufacturing Index for April came in at 60.4, which is slightly above the 60.0.Retracement to bull pivot resistance.
12:30noon:--A sudden bout of buying to new session high.
1:30pm:--Shooting stars seen.The tone of trade has been positive all session, despite a lack of help in the early going from overseas markets, many of which were closed.
2:30pm:--A flat session,just hoovering around the high.
3:30pm:--The relative weakness of the materials sector,partially due to the strengthening US dollar.
4:00pm:--A slight pullback towards the closing bell but held strongly near the bullish high.
The opening day of May started off on a bullish note and most likely to spillover on to the next trading day.
The Greek bailout, along with better-than-expected reports on manufacturing and construction spending in the U.S., overshadowed reports that China is boosting its bank reserves to counteract inflationary pressure.