Wednesday, May 5, 2010

The European May Day Halloween.

Historical market data indicates that all of an investor's gain would have been generated during the winter season's six months. Further, researchers have found that this seasonal impact is pervasive – present in numerous countries, significant in size, and statistically robust over time.
Wall Street has long been aware of this seasonality trend, generating an old maxim to “SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY”.
It was reported there that in 36 of 37 countries studied, average stock market returns from Halloween through May Day (the so-called "winter" months) were significantly higher than equity returns from May Day through Halloween (the "summer months").
In fact , the study found, the summer months' returns have averaged so much less than those of the winter months that almost all of the stock market's long-term returns have been produced during the winter months . That implies that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk -- a winning combination that would show up in a much improved risk-adjusted performance.
Over the last ten years (since 1997), the "Sell in May" strategy for the U.K. FTSE All-Share index has gained 95 per cent, while the "Buy in May" strategy has lost 19 per cent. The All-Share is up 57 per cent for those who remained continuously invested.
The seasonality factor and the cyclical re-rating of equity markets appears to have run its course and seems to be also the influential factor.
The Dow Wednesday is 12 market days to index/options expiry.(Pivot month 2nd Q)
Nikkei futures expires 14/05/10.
9:30am:-- Hefty 150.0 points bearish gap down.
An uninspiring latest ADP Employment Report added to the continuing rout.
10:30am:--Opening gap down fully covered by the bulls.
11:30am:--Slight pullback to session bull pivot support.
12:30noon:--After finding the morning high,index is now pulling back to the MAV support level.
1:30pm:--Bearish harami near the MAV support line.
2:30pm:--Index pullback to the day's low for a second bottom.
3:30pm:--A retracement to the MAV resistance failed.
4:00pm:--Bullish spin near the low.
Finally the whole of April's bullish candlestick has been wiped off by the bears to find a lower shadow since it has an unshaven bottom at that time.
Now the cleansing is over and time for a healthy rebound.
This market is deliberately being set upon by the halloween vampires,a season where S & P ratings,the Moody's ratings start their mischief of downgrading here and there.This is also an indirect insider trading assisting the short- sellers and their cronies.By harping about worrying and concern about the European debts,these are just their common gimmicks.The IMF and the Germans have already come to their rescue.