Tuesday, March 23, 2010

A very wealthy nation by the Caspian Sea.

The Republic of Azerbaijan is located on the south-eastern corner of the Europe, bordering on the north with Russia, north-west with Georgia, west with Armenia, and south with Iran. On the east the Caspian coastline stretches north to south for 800 km. In the south-west, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan, separated from the mainland by Armenia, has also a small (17 km) border with Turkey.
Azerbaijan is a predominantly Muslim country with deeply rooted secular traditions.It regained its independence in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR.
This energy-rich Caspian nation, where oil was first drilled in 1848, is now the locus of Europe's effort to wean itself from dependence on Russian natural gas.
Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is booming: gross domestic product growth was more than 9 per cent last year; the hundreds of big, shiny commercial and residential buildings under construction are a result of its oil and gas wealth. Prince Andrew has visited the city often over the past six years, as he tries to promote British business interests in the region.
The capital is also at the centre of one of the most important geopolitical issues of modern times, the security of the European Union's energy supplies. Azerbaijan, with the BP (BP)-led Shah Deniz-2 field, is expected to be the major natural-gas supplier to the Nabucco pipeline, which will run 3,300km from Erzurum, Turkey, to Austria.
The Dow Tuesday 23/03/10.
Asian index futures rollover of contracts to start.
9:30am:-Bullish spike open due tothe President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,who offered an encouraging impression regarding the state of the economy by saying the U.S. economic recovery is on track and that labor data should look better in March and beyond.
10:30am:--Opening gap being filled immediatel and rebounded to session high.
11:30am:--Pullback to bear pivot,February Existing Home Sales down 0.6% from January .
12:30noon:--Retracement to morning high again with slight pullback hanging at bull pivot.
1:30pm:--Session new high with bearish hammer.Uncertainty about the EU's support for Greece.
2:30pm:--Another rebound due to a pullback in the dollar,
3:30pm:--Ascending bulls to new day's high.
4:00pm:--A slight half-body pullback to be expected.
A surge in buying interest overruled early reports discussing a rift developing in the eurozone with respect to EU-funded aid for Greece should it be needed. The headlines on that matter changed by the hour, yet the headlines tended to favor the notion that Germany will ultimately come around to support an EU plan for Greece should it be needed.
The Dow is about 200.0 points more to breakout the 52 weeks high.The stock market remained biased toward the long side.

Friday, March 19, 2010

A homecoming delay.

President Obama delayed his visit until June to Indonesia so he can focus on a health care bill currently hung up in Congress.
Obama spent part of his childhood living in the Jakarta neighborhood of Menteng.
Menteng , the “ Beverly Hills ” of Indonesia , is known as a neighborhood for bureaucrats, diplomats and crème de la crème of Jakarta . Supported by easy access to service centers and nearby to the central business district, Menteng is one of the most exclusive areas for residential real estate in Jakarta .
Most of the boulevards are lined with shadowy old trees that earn the label for Menteng as the first park town in Indonesia. Designed by the Dutch Colonial Government in 1920s, Menteng still retains its graceful existence with its beautiful parks, cozy street cafés and luxurious housing complexes.
Obama's late mother came to Indonesia with her young son in the late 1960s to join her second husband knowing next to nothing about the huge, developing Southeast Asian nation. In Jakarta, Obama went to a Catholic school and then State Elementary School Menteng 01, attended by pupils of many faiths in a posh leafy suburb. The school was founded in 1934 as Carpentier Alting Stichting Nassau School (CAS) by the Dutch colonial administration and was reserved for the children of the Dutch and Indonesian nobility.
Dow on Friday,the index/options expiry,Quadraple witching day.
Asian index futures expiry:31/3/10
9:30am:--Bullish 40.0 points spike up and was immediately gap filled,a bad sign.
10:30am:--Further bearish spin at session low.
11:30am:--Another new low with a bulish hammer.
12:30noon:--Consolidation hour,no sign of retracement to MAV,bearish spin.
1:30pm:--Bearish hammer,now at session low.
2:30pm:--A technical rebound to the bear pivot resistance,bearish evening star.
3;30pm:--Spike down to find a new low of the day.
4:00pm:--A retracement to the bear pivot looking for further rebound.
An extremely high turnover volume on Friday,as a result of the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500 and a quadruple witching options expiration, which means that contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire at the close.
The Greece bailout problem is still clouding on the financial markets and in the event of a pullback,the MAV support line will be tested.
Friday's candlestick closed above the bull pivot and within the previous day's body denoting that the bulls are still in control but the bearish spin at the high overall is a bad sign also.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Forcing the yuan to revalue.

A stronger Chinese yuan will eventually hurt US exporters and cost US consumers more, said two US foreign exchange experts in an article published Tuesday by the US Foreign Policy journal.
Their comments came as Washington politicians are raising pressure on China to strengthen its currency.
"The escalating calls for China to re-balance its currency are based on deeply-flawed assumptions and will only make Americans pay more for their favorite products -- like iPhones," said Dan Newman, an economist in Seattle, and Frank Newman, former deputy secretary of the US Treasury.
In the article titled "Hands Off the Yuan", the two experts said the notion that a stronger yuan against the US dollar would boost the US domestic production and reduce the US trade imbalance is based on wrong assumptions.
By imposing a 27.5-percent tax on Chinese products imported into the United States,the American consumers will have to pay even more in the event of the yuan's appreciation.
Increasing the value of the yuan does not increase US exports by making them cheaper abroad. If the yuan rises in value, it does not spur Germans to start driving Fords.
The Dow on Wednesday 17/3/10 is 2 market days to index/options expiry.
Asian futures expire 31/3/10
9:30am:--Bullish 30.0 points gap-up.
10:30am:--Session pullback to bull pivot.
11:30am:--New morning high followed by graveyard doji.
12:30noon:--Pullback to bull pivot,bullish dragonfly doji.
1:30pm:--Spike up to another high with a bearish shooting star.
2:30pm:--Bears at double top.
3:30pm:--Spike down to bear pivot.High volatilty due to roll over of futres contract prior to expiry day normally happens 3 days before.
4:00pm:--Retrace to the MAV,a small hangman pairing.
Wednesday's candlestick position has found a new high with an inverted bullish hammer.The strength of the bulls are unquestionable.Seems to be a breakaway summer bull ready for a new race.
The bulls are satisfactory reacted to the latest FOMC policy statement, which aims to keep targeted interest rates at exceptionally low levels for an extended period of time.
The Producer prices for February fell 0.6%, which was a sharper drop than expected.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

The US and UK ratings.

The meaning of rating is an opinion of the ability and willingness of an issuer to make timely payments on a debt instrument, such as a bond, over the life of that instrument.
Ratings companies like Standard and Poor and Moody are the big names in the US.
Ratings are not recommendations to buy or sell, nor are they a guarantee that default will not occur.
Investors use ratings to help price the credit risk of fixed-income securities they may buy or sell. Many also use ratings as limits on their investment parameters and as means for expanding their investment horizons to markets or security types they do not cover by their own analysis. Because major investors globally rely on Moody’s ratings, the ratings help to provide issuers of debt with stable, flexible access to those sources of capital.
This is the description of Moody's ratings:-
Investment Grade:-
Aaa - “gilt edged”
Aa1, Aa2, Aa3 - high-grade
A1, A2, A3 - upper-medium grade
Baa1, Baa2, Baa3 - medium grade
Speculative Grade:-
Ba1, Ba2, Ba3 - speculative elements
B1, B2, B3 - lack characteristics of a desirable investment
Caa1, Caa2, Caa3 - bonds of poor standing
Ca - highly speculative
C - lowest rating, extremely poor prospects of attaining any real investment standing

The U.S. and the U.K. have moved “substantially” closer to losing their AAA credit ratings as the cost of servicing their debt rose, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The U.S. government will spend about 7 percent of its revenue servicing debt in 2010 and almost 11 percent in 2013, according to the baseline scenario of moderate economic recovery, fiscal adjustments in line with government plans and a gradual increase in interest rates, Moody’s said.
The U.K. is likely to spend 7 percent of revenue servicing debt this year and 9 percent in 2013, rising to almost 12 percent under the adverse scenario, Moody’s said.
The Dow,Monday is 4 market days to index/options expiry.
Asian index/options expiry 31/03/10.

9:30am:--A flat mild opening gap down with a bearish morning star.
10:30am:--A bearish spin at session MAV.
11:30am:--Morning session low with bullish short-cover.
12:30noon:--Retrace to bear resistance.Inverted bull noticed.
1:30pm:--Usual consolidation time.Holding near the MAV resistance line with reluctance to pierce through,a shooting star.
2:30pm:--Pullback to bear pivot support,a dragonfly doji.
3:30pm:--MAV resistance line broken,heading for the high.
4:00pm:--A bullish fresh candlestick closing with no upper shadow.
Last Thursday's candlestick body has been covered for the second time leaving a long lower shadow and a new candlestick body spinning at its high.
A good result from The Empire Manufacturing Index and industrial production for February also aided the market move.
Concerns about an overheating economy in China have fed persistent concerns about tighter monetary policy which affected Asian trading today.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

The bottom line is sales target.

It's the Toyota cars gaining the main highlight in the USA.
US lawyers are instituiting legal actions against this Japanese automaker and are seeking billions in damages.
Toyota needs to compensate the millions of people who saw the value of their vehicles drop in the wake of a series of mass safety recalls.
There will be a whopping eight to 10 million Toyotas in a nationwide class-action lawsuit.Wow,that's fantastic enough to create a kamikaze.
The Charges:--"Toyota deliberately misled its customers about the safety of its vehicles and should be convicted of racketeering and fraud charges. Toyota sacrificed innocent, trusting lives for profit and hubris."
This is a civil complaint filed on Wednesday in a Florida court.
The complaint accuses Toyota of concealing information about problems with sudden, unintended acceleration it has known about since 2002 and lying to the public about the true cause in order to “minimise the effects on future sales and leases and to minimise the recalls’ effects on their profits.”
The Dow,Thursday 11/03/10 is 6 market days to index futures expiry.
Nikkei futures expiry Friday.Monday is the Pivot Day of the month.
9:30am:--A bearish start looking for pullback 7 days before index futures expiry.
10:30am:--Hammered to near the MAV support line of the month.A morning star struck out futher slide.
11:30am:--Retracement to near session high with a pullback to the bull pivot.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time,the MAV support.A bullish engulfing on check.
1:30pm:--Retracement to near session high again with bullish inverted hammer.
2:30pm:--A second pullback with a rebound to strike the session high.
3:30pm:--A new day's high.Bullish ascending soldiers.
4:00pm:--Ending with the highest point of the day.
Seems that the market makers have their monthly itineary that never miss.Seven days before the Dow Index expiry,anything with prior high level needs to pullback to or at near the MAV of the month and vice-versa.
Since the current month starts on a very bullish note,the pullback only covers Friday's half candlestick body otherwise if it were to hit the MAV support line without leaving it,expect the bears to corner the market.
The above principles also applies worldwide.
The fear game plan used today is China's consumer and producers price index skyrocketting and the monetary tightening expectation ahead.No more Greek fear.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

An environmental friendly hybrid car.

Fancy an environmental friendly hybrid car that performs at 50mpg?This is the new third generation Toyota Prius costing about USD22,000.
It is roomier, quieter, more advanced and has more equipment. It even has a moonroof equipped with a solar panel located over the rear seating area. As previously speculated, the solar panels only powers the air circulation fan for the air conditioning system, not even the whole air conditioning system! This fan can function while the car is unoccupied, which means it can keep the car’s interior cool while it is parked under the hot sun.
The body uses aluminium in the hood, rear hatch, front suspension axle and brake caliper to reduce weight.
The Atkinson cycle engine under the hood is now larger and more powerful, clocking in at 1.8 liters on the displacement scale and putting out 98 horsepower at 5,200rpm and 142Nm of torque at 4,000rpm. The electric motor puts out 80hp and 208Nm of torque, but combined output of the two systems are 134 horsepower. Power from the two “engines” go through an electronically controlled CVT transmission. The hybrid battery pack is still a NiMH (no move to lithium ion yet). The Prius can run in 3 modes – EV, Eco and Power. EV is an electric-only mode (which can run for about 1.6km, good for short trips to the shop or mamak), while Eco and Power should be self explanatory.
This four-door hybrid has become a hit with consumers because of its stellar fuel economy, relatively uncompromised driving and acceleration characteristics and reasonable price.
The Toyota Prius (its name comes from Latin and means "to go before") exists as a partial solution to the automobile's problem of tailpipe emissions.
The Prius, like other hybrid vehicles, has a special powertrain that combines a gasoline-fueled internal combustion engine with an electric motor. This powertrain, along with other advanced features, allows the Prius to deliver higher fuel economy and lower emissions compared to regular cars.
An elegant and stylish dashboard,very aerodynamic.
Toyota has the knowledge and experience with nickel metal hydride(NiMH) battery packs.The prototype battery system weighs about 220 lbs. more than the current production Prius pack and intrudes into the trunk so that that’s there’s only room for about two medium size suitcases.
The prototypes can operate on electric power for a range of about 7 miles and can re-charge in three to four hours using a 110-vlot outlet. Under the hood is the current Prius’s 1.5-liter inline four. The electric motor generates 50kW, which combined with the more powerful pack, allows the Prius prototype to reach 62 mph on electric-only power. Current cars can only hit about 25 mph before the gasoline engine cuts in.
The Dow,Tuesday 9/03/10 is 8 market days to Quadraple Witching.
Nikkei futures expiry:12/03/10
9:30am:--Bearish unshaven top 30.0 points down.The greenback is the primary culprit; it is currently up 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies.
10:30am:--Opening gap-down fully recovered.Bullish spin at near session high.Texas Instruments (TXN) improved its outlook.
11:30am:--Bullish dragonfly doji at current high.
The US Dollar Index pulled back gave renewed strength to the majority of the commodity.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time.No sign of any pullback now at new high.A bearish engulfing warning.
1:30pm:--Another top this time with a powerful bearish engulfing.
2:30pm:--The hangman,triple top bearish engulfing.
3:30pm:--Pierced through the MAV support line hitting the bear pivot covering the opening gap.
4:00pm:--Retracement ending with a small bullish inverted hammer.There wasn't any economic data today.
A lack of upbeat headlines and a stronger dollar left buyers with little reason to get back into the action.The current pair of candlestick resembles a spinning top which is inside the body of last Friday.Any pullback will be near the half body before it retrace again.
Tomorrow brings monthly wholesale inventory data and the Treasury's monthly budget statement which is a non-event so expect another tri-star formation.
Meanwhile it's reported job openings rose sharply earlier this year, evidence that employers are slowly ramping up hiring as the economy improves.So the next jobless claims report on the 18/03/10 will be another boost to the index.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

The Dow's crash anniversary.

It was 6th of March in the year 2009,the US market tumbled below 6,600 for the first time since April 1997, it fell 281.40 points, or 4.1%, to 6,594.44.
The culprit is the beleaguered auto giant General Motors aided by its accomplice JPMorgan Chase’s giving it a bad credit rating cut.
It's a real bloodbath rattling throughout the world financial markets like a domino.
It also happens during the transition period of a newly elected US President.Bush passes the baton at 7,400 points while Mr Obama completed the 100th days finishing line with the spike down to usher in the new millenium of his Presidency.
TODAY,the 5th of MARCH 2010 is exactly close to one year being the anniversary of the Leap Year Dow crash.The Dow has just surpassed the 52 weeks bull pivot resistance and the previous high of 11,022.10 points will be achievable maybe in the next 100th days.
The Dow,Friday 5/01/10 is 10 market days to Quadraple Witching.
The Nikkei Futures expires in 5 days time.


9:30am:--A 50.0points bullish spike up.
10:30am:--No sign of opening gap-up being filled,an inverted bull within the upper shadow looking for futher light.
11:30am:--A slight pullback at session high holding above bull pivot.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time but still held steady at bull pivot support line.
1:30pm:--The second hour bulls still holding its breath at the bull pivot.
2:30pm:--The third time still holding at bull pivot and this time an inverted powerful bull sighted.
3:30pm:--The high of the day being established followed by mild profit taking.
4:00pm:--Ending the day with a bullish harami.
Friday's positive mood was aided by the government's official Nonfarm Payrolls Report which showed 36,000 job losses for February.(actual consensus 68,000)
The Federal Reserve reported that consumer borrowing rose by $4.96 billion in January, surprising economists who were looking for borrowing to decline by $4.5 billion. It was the first gain after a record 11 straight declines and it was the largest increase since July 2008.
Technically,the 52 weeks bull pivot resistance has been pierced through and the bullish strength is likely to be maintained except for some intermittent air-pockets descend.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Cambodia's new casino.

A Cambodian tycoon named Kith Thieng,the owner launched a $100 million casino near the country's border with Vietnam to attract foreign tourists and develop the country's fast-growing entertainment industry.
The Titan King Casino opens its doors on Feb. 26 in Bavet, a town in Svay Rieng province, about 120 km (75 miles) from Phnom Penh, covering 2.5 hectares of land and employing some 6,000 people.
Kith Thieng, whose business interests include hotels, fast food restaurants, a mobile phone operator and stakes in a bank and television station, said he wanted to help Cambodia's entertainment sector rebound after the global economic crisis. Cambodia generated revenues of $19 million from its 29 casinos in 2008, according to Finance Ministry data.
That fell to $17 million last year, with the decline attributed to a fall in tourist arrivals and rising border tensions with neighbouring Thailand.
Thais are a vital part of Cambodia's casino industry. Most forms of gambling are forbidden in Thailand, but thousands of Thais regularly visit massive casino complexes located along their shared border.
Kith Thieng said Bavet was fast becoming a regional centre for entertainment "much like Las Vegas and Macau".
Hear Sopheaktra, an assistant to Kith Thieng, said the casino would list on the Cambodian stock market, which was due to open later this year.
NagaCorp (3918.HK), is currently the only casino operator in Cambodia, with a licence to run any number of casinos within 200 km (124 miles) of Phnom Penh until 2065.
The company said last week it expected revenue in 2010 to grow by 30 percent as the global economy recovers, and forecast future growth would be driven by a surge in Chinese visitors.
The Dow Tuesday,02/03/10 is 13 market days to Quadraple Witching.
Nikkei Futures Expiry:8 market days to go.
9:30am:--A 40.0 points opening gap-up with a bearish spinning top.
10:30am:--Opening gap being filled partially,bullish engulfing checked the slide.
11:30am:--Retracement to near session high,bearish harami hammering.
12:30noon:--Pullback to near MAV pivot support.Bullish harami holding it on.
1:30pm:--Bull pivot resistance failure attempt,hangman and graveyard doji noticed.
2:30pm:--Dived down piercing through the MAV pivot support with further bearish hammer.
3:30pm:--The lowest point of the day being established.A morning star.
4:00pm:--Bullish hammering out the low.
A bullish start for March,an unshaven opener.A real low point has not been formed yet.Previous lower shadow of Thursday's region will be the expectation.
More merger activity and a plan by Qualcomm Inc. to buy back stock brought reassurance that business leaders expect the recovery to continue.
Markets got a lift from upbeat economic reports abroad and growing hopes European leaders will come up with a bailout for Greece. The Greek government is scheduled to detail deeper spending cuts on Wednesday.