Subprime suspect.

The Justice Dept. and the SEC are investigating Ralph Cioffi,a quiet boy raised in a vermont town 310 miles (500 kilometers) from the Madison Avenue headquarters, who ran the Bear Stearns funds that ignited the credit crisis.
Cioffi joined Bear Stearns in 1985, selling so-called structured products such as bonds backed by mortgages or other loans.Cioffi established a second fund, the High Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, in August 2006 because of demand from investors who couldn't get into his first fund.
Mr. Cioffi holds a B.S. degree in Business Administration with distinction from Saint Michael's College - Home , Vermont.
The former manager of the two Bear Stearns (BSC) hedge funds whose collapse last summer sparked the credit crisis. Federal prosecutors are expected to decide by June whether or not to bring charges against him and members of his team. Wall Street is watching closely: If the Justice Dept. can't make a case against Cioffi, a prime figure in the mortgage mess, other criminal investigations may hit a dead end as well.
Investors should not be pulled by the nose from those financial instituitions marketing their exotic products,the values of which were based on internal models deemed fraudulent rather than actual values.
Tracking the Dow on Tuesday,29/04/08.


9:30am--Consumer confidence drops in April on inflation, job worries.Dow component Merck (MRK) is acting as the main drag in the early-going. The company announced the FDA denied approval of its Cordaptive cholesterol drug.Gap-down about 30 points followed by an immediate full-gap recover.The early high set here resembles a graveyard doji.
10:00am--The number of U.S. homes heading toward foreclosure more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier.Bearish spin again.Open a sell-short position.
11:00--Buy-back and close position.Knowing the (H+L)/2=MAV,move-in to long-position waiting to sell at or around MAV.
12:00noon--Buyers are not showing much interest. Market participants were also cautious.Still hold on position.
1:00pm--It has touched the MAV-clear position.
2:00pm--Index still hanging on MAV,cautious about direction.
3:00pm--It's the double top,open a sell-short position.
4:00pm--Close out for additional gain.The final bell saw another bearish spin.

One,two bear spin.The lower half-shadow being done,what about the balance half?Are they going to fill it up and set for the short-covering rebound?yeah,it's always the case.The market-makers are always good at doing it.So gear up for rebound again.
Overall we are still in the bull country.

Mergers and Acquisitions

Huge merger and acquisition news will be in the spotlight again.The latest being Warren Buffet and Mars Inc. offering $23 billion for Wrigley.Kurk Kerkorian's Tracinda fund considering to substantially up their stake in Ford and Microsoft vying to take over Yahoo!

All these M&A will soon transform the beneficiaries into a global leader economic powerhouse.

Tracking the Dow on Monday,28/04/08.

9:30am--A 25.0 points gap-ups.Not much of economic news.

10:00am--The gaps have been fully covered early and a low being set.At this stage the MAV=(,920+,860)/2...will get 12,890.Open a long position to sell anything above MAV.

11:00am--Take profit. Saw the hangman and shooting stars(10:30am)

12:00noon--Into the 2nd session of trading.Ha,a spinning bottom at the MAV.Should I buy again?How to determine?The morning candlestick pattern overall is a white spinning doji and no real high set as yet,so move in without hesitation.

1:00pm--Another shooting star@12:30pm,clear earlier position wait to gauge again,very highly volatile today.

2:00pm--The day's high was flagged here,so it's time to short-sell the market.

3:00pm--Index still hoovering at a wide distance from MAV which I'm expecting to close position around here.Ha,,news just in Warren Buffett,the new 'chewing gum man' wriggle the market.He frightened the floor traders,quote:"the American recession is going to be a long and winding one"

4:00pm--His mouth is venomous,the market dived at closing bell.Closed position with hefty gains.

The bearish engulfing spin in Friday's candlestick body.Be wary of the long lower tail which is subject to coverage.

Stimulant payment booster.

"Beginning Monday-four days earlier than expected, the effects of the stimulus will begin to reach households," President Bush said Friday. "This money is going to help Americans offset the high prices we're seeing at the gas pump and at the grocery store."
Who gets a payment?
$600 to singles making less than $75,000
$1,200 to couples making less than $150,000
$300 rebates per child
As of next week, 800,000 tax filers daily will begin to have their checks directly deposited Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. No checks will be distributed Thursday, and 5 million payments will be made Friday.
Payments to taxpayers slated to get paper checks will start to go out May 9 - one week earlier than originally planned.
Checks are being distributed to people who file 2007 tax returns. Those who opt for direct deposit with the Internal Revenue Service will start getting payments before those who use the mail.

Tracking the Dow on Friday,25/04/08


9:30am--opening gap-up nearly 50 points.Any gaps-up will normally be followed by closing it back again.
10:00am--the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in with its lowest reading since the early 1980s,the excuse to sell but normally at this time I'll open a long-position.
11:00am--Got hammered down lower.Couldn't manouver as postion hasn't close-out.Calculate:(High+Low)/2=MAV and watch closely the pattern in the next few hours.
12:00noon--index has approached the MAV.
1:00pm--it's still hoovering inches below MAV--no intention to close out,noticed many (+)dojis,sign of indecisions.
2:00pm--A bullish new long candlestick has made a breakout of MAV.What's up!traders has overcomed concerns about consumer confidence and inflation.
3:00pm--The advancing soldiers.Great!!
4:00pm--Close-out position.The final bell again saw a strong inverted bullish hammer.Great days ahead.

Friday's candlestick has a long lower shadow which is possibly kept for shorties in the event of bad news.Anyway the closing is half filling Thursday's upper-shadow waiting to move upward again.
With the FOMC in focus on Wednesday,the bets on rates cut is on again.
The main indicies are lying above the Bull Pivot,a sign of bullishness.

Strong US Dollar,lower oil.

Data on Thursday showing signs of resilience in the U.S. labor market and weak German business sentiment boosted the dollar, which held its gains in early Asian trade. Signs of of a sound dollar and U.S. economy are good news for Asia's exporters, who count on strong demand for their products, and for investors, who have been nervously watching for any fresh omens of the U.S. economy slowing further.
A sliding dollar had devalued U.S. financial assets then, prompting funds to move into oil and commodities.Oil and other dollar-denominated commodities came under pressure after data showed U.S. jobless claims down sharply last week, boosting the dollar by more than 1 percent against a basket of major currencies.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson cited encouraging signs of progress in calming financial markets, which he said made it possible to turn more attention to measures aimed at stimulating a slowing economy.
Paulson said the Treasury was accelerating its schedule for distribution of tax rebate checks under a $152 billion economic stimulus package, sending out the first payments on Monday instead of in early May.

Tracking the Dow on Thursday,24/04/08.
9:30am--A small 15.0 points gap-up.Cheering the drop in jobless claims.The drop in new homes sales pulled the reverese trigger.
10:00am--A 'harami'signal, YouTube - Freddie Aguilar -- Anak - Filipino Karaoke ...get ready into the maternity ward.
11:00--yeah!the 'dragon-fly doji' (T)confirms.Open long position,get ready the diapers.
12:00noon--Broken the early session high ,noticed the parade of advancing nurses.Hang-on...babe!
1:00pm--The 'shooting star'--sell short position and close. (When A Child Is Born )
2:00pm--Now into the 2nd half,Ford Motor (F) unexpectedly posted a narrow profit and it's still pumping-up.Should I chase a long-position?I think NO...time to closing too short as any time now a profit-taking might happen since it's too wide above MAV.
3:00pm--Ha..the High side & the 'graveyard-doji'.Open a short-position,you're safe.
4:000pm--close position for the day.Two black drumstick at the final bell augurs well for a short-covering.

Its the Damn Cool Pics: San Fermin Bull Run Fiesta at Pamplona.Wall Street bulls will be taking to the streets of the Spanish capital.It's the breakout.

Commodity Bubble.

The soaring prices of crude oil and other commodities have become impossible to ignore.$120.00 per barrel crude-oil is grizzly and cruel to the daily lives of the modern world.
Up from just $70 back on Labor Day of 2007.
Prices of metals such as copper and zinc and foodstuffs ranging from corn and wheat to oats and rice have soared as well, a fact hammered home by reports of food riots in cities in Egypt and Haiti.
Some of the rise in commodity prices can be explained by simple supply and demand. People in places like China and India are eating richer diets as their economies expand, and energy use is surging as industrialization moves forward.
Prices also reflect other factors, such as subsidies, trade barriers and tariffs. The U.S., for instance, has earmarked a substantial amount of its corn crop to the production of ethanol - a decision that has made corn scarcer as a foodstuff at a time when global demand for grain is increasing and stockpiles are at longtime lows.
Billionaire investor George Soros said that "a new bubble is developing in commodities" and that this is leading to rising food costs and other inflation pressures.( Soros says 'commodity bubble' is still in growth stage )
The guys who screwed up the mortgage markets are bringing their awesome skill sets to bear on physical commodity markets.These investors are buying commodities in part because of Bernanke's rate-cutting spree. Inflation kills.


9:30am--Gap-up nearly 40.0 points.Tech stocks providing the leadership.
10:00am--Early Low.(open long-position).Morning star.
11:00am--High.(close-position)A long shadow of graveyard doji.
12:00pm--Bearish engulfing.(open short the market)
1:00pm--Take profit,close out position.
2:00pm--Day's (High+Low)/2=mav.At this stage,anything below MAV--you buy long,if above must Sell short.
3:00pm--Time factor,limited prospect
4:00pm--Noticed two ascending soldiers.

The inverted hammer is holding near the weekly MAV.It can be translated to recover the long upper shadow of the candlestick.

Crisis equals opportunity?

As a result of the recent market crashes, a lot of retailer players have been staying away from the stock market. Although the present market may be showing some uptrend, not many retailers are confident about investing.
ACCORDING to Stephen Vines in his book titled Market Panic, there are four types of market panic – phoney panic, end-of-cycle panic, contagious panic and real panic.
Phoney panic refers to that caused by some negative events which have no impact on the fundamentals of companies or the overall economy. For example, even though such panic causes heavy selling, it is short-lived and will recover within a short time, as the crash does not cause changes to the economic fundamentals.
End-of-cycle panic refers to panic selling as a result of the end of a market rally. This is a healthy pullback, as the market needs to consolidate before it can resume its upward momentum. However, such panic normally takes time to recover.
Nevertheless, if the crash is confined to the local market, it will be less severe compared with contagious panic.
Contagious panic usually refers to cross-border and international contagion.
For example, the terrorist attacks on World Trade Centre on Sept 11, 2001 led to the crash in the US market spreading throughout the world markets, including Malaysia.
The last type of panic – also the most dangerous – is real panic, which is triggered by the possibility of an economic recession, corporate failures or financial crisis.
The market will take longer to recover from these crashes as they are due to worries over economic recession and company fundamentals.
For instance, if the Fed did not cut interest rates on Jan 22 (before the market opened), we might have ended up with a global market crash, as the Asia-Pacific as well as European markets had already experienced big crashes before the US market opened.
Even though this crash relates more to real panic, it was also the result of end-of-cycle panic plus contagious panic, combining all three types of panic.
Buying panic
James L. “RevShark” DePorre, in his book Invest Like A Shark, introduced a new investing approach called “shark investing”. He says we need to invest like sharks because sharks have certain characteristics that can keep them away from danger and yet they are highly efficient eating machines.
Sharks are patient while they wait for opportunities. Given that the recent market panic may take longer to recover, we need to wait for opportunities. Unless we encounter strong buying opportunities that enable us to buy good quality stocks at very cheap prices, we need to be patient in waiting for the right timing.
Sometimes, the best buying opportunities arise when the outlook is at its worst. Unfortunately, except for institutional investors, most retailers will shy away from the market.
Sharks plan their attacks. We should consider buying stocks when certain companies are selling far below their intrinsic value or their businesses are temporarily facing business difficulties and should correct them over time. Capital gains mean buy low, sell high.
For good quality stocks, we can only buy low when there is a lot of bad news. Unfortunately, most analysts focus on the bad news and seldom look at long-term prospects.
Lastly, sharks are risk-averse and do not hesitate to swim away when danger lurks. If our economy falls into recession (although most experts say it is quite unlikely), we need to hold more cash than stocks and wait until the worst is over.
However, we should hold on to good quality stocks that pay good dividends. We should not liquidate all stocks while waiting for the market to crash further as we will never know whether we have seen the worst.

Tracking the Dow on Tuesday,22/04/08

9:30am--Opening spike down again nearly 50.0 points.Who's the culprits?...Texas Instrument,disappointed earnings oulook.

10:30am--A bullish engulfing candlestick seen,take a long position.Having known the low here,add (High+Low)/2=MAV and get rid of position slightly above MAV..

11:30am--The apache helicopter hoovering above too near the MAV which is now the support line.Saw a hangman with a spinning bear.Yeah! confirm a deep graveyard Doji--shoot the zhombies.

12:30pm--The descendants,look out for short-covering position.Another new low here with a new MAV.

1:30pm--Retracement,close position.(MAV+Low)/2=Bear Pivot.

2:30pm--Time factor,unable to gauge the direction,stay out too many negative news.The Amex Airline Index (-12.3%) got hammered and hit a fresh 52-week low.Crude hits a fresh all-time high of $118.45 per barrel. An attack in Nigeria has disrupted supply.

3:30pm--Still hoovering around the Bear pivot,not sure what their plans.

4:00pm--The bulls were trying to bring it up.Saw the dragonfly doji with an inverted hammer.Favourable sign.

High energy costs melted the candle.It has put a damper on any type of economic recovery, but after a certain point in time, the consumer is just going to have to stop spending.

The profit-taking has wiped-off nearly the whole of Friday's candlestick right to the Bull's support-line.

Both the dark unshaven hammering candlestick are signs of another weakness.

Biggest-ever Euro rights issue soon.

Royal Bank of Scotland,Britain's second-biggest bank will seek to raise up to £12 bil (US$24bil).It is also considering selling assets, including a train leasing business and possibly its insurance arm.
RBS is also expected to unveil a writedown of between £5bil and £7bil on tarnished assets, including those previously owned by ABN Amro, the sources said. The bank marked down its assets by £2.4bil last year.
Once RBS acts, other British banks – following in the footsteps of their US rivals – are likely to consider moves to bolster their balance sheets, which are among the most stretched in Europe. Barclays, HBOS, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley will keenly watch the reaction of RBS shareholders.

Tracking the Dow on Monday,21/04/08.
9:30am--Bank of America disappointing results spoil the day.The overnight army command post was disabled.Nearly 70.0 points Gap-Down.
10:30am--The fallen heroes were grounded,awaiting medical autopsy.This is the usual time for pullback.Best action to take long position for advancement.
11:30am--All system go,proceed to frontline(the MAV) and shoot at sight.Clear off the path and wait for the next session.
12:30pm--Surveillance time.
1:30pm--Too many resistance fighters,the shooting stars,the hammers at the MAV top.Take a short position.
2:30pm--That's it,enemy fire has cool-off.Build-up long position again.
3:30pm--Hang on for unwinding position for the day.
4:00pm--The closing bell saw a very long bearish candlestick on the back of a graveyard doji.The bears spillover.

The Hangman Doji is holding close to the bull-pivot.It is trying to cover back the half-body of Friday's candlestick.
Today is the beginning of a new futures & options trading month expiring on the 3rd Friday of May.
So they've started the ball-rolling by having a weaker start and projected to close with a higher ending.

Chinese Stocks Bubble.

It's a very real brutal bear market in China which most people have overlooked and ignored.In keeping with that odd behaviour, while the US market has now fallen less than half the distance of the Chinese market (from their respective October 2007 tops), most people are more concerned about the US markets.
Part of the explanation is that the US markets are obviously much larger and have more significance on the world stage, but still, a bear market is a bear market. And over in China they are grappling with a big one.
Friday,19/04/08 closing:3,094.68 down 128.073(-3.97%)
China's CPI leaps to 8.7% in February, 11-year high.
The Chinese stock market has gone through bubbles before. This time it only multiplied by a factor of 6 in less than 2 years! This recent mania was so strong that it shrugged off a trading stamp tax increase last summer and continued to rally for a few months. Usually such state manipulation would have meant a quick death to the mania.
Since the bull market in Chinese shares lasted longer than most predicted, it is safe to say that the bear may last longer also. The next level of support is around the 3000 level. After that, the resistance levels from 2000-2001 will come into play at the 2000 price levels.

A set of new trading measures was announced overnight on Sunday night to help stabilize the market by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. A ban was also imposed on large-scale sales 30 days prior to the release of annual or biannual reports.This move was seen as an attempt to boost dwindling investor confidence after the country's market has nearly lost 50 percent since peaking in mid-October. The flooding of previously untradable shares was blamed as a key culprit for the meltdown.
INSIDE CHINA.
About 93 million Chinese, or 7.18 percent of the total population are hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers, the Ministry of Health (MOH) said on Monday.People in western and interior provinces are more likely to carry the virus than people in eastern and coastal provinces, said Hao Yang, deputy director of the Ministry's disease prevention and control bureau, at a press conference.
Travel China:China World Heritage---Amazing Photos of China---China Photos, Pictures
Teresa Teng Asian Love Song

Winter bears gone!

The equity markets end a strong week fueled by earnings, and the Dow breaks through February highs and a key resistance level.Thanks to Google Inc.(The Wild Geese (1978) ) and IBM Corp. (ICBMs =Intercontinental ballistic missiles)providing reassurance in a season dominated by economic concern.The firing of salvo by the two Dow component stocks are enough to pound on the bears back into the woods of The Rocky Mountains of Wyoming
Commodities are all about oil and grains this week.Oil hits a new closing record close of $116.69 on supply threats from Nigeria on Friday, and gas, diesel and natural gas are all at record levels.-Riots are happening around the globe from Haiti to Indonesia, over rice trading at record levels due to bad harvests and record fuel costs. The cost of food will top the U.N. agenda at its meeting in Switzerland later this month.-Rice is up over 70% in 2008. The biggest risk to the global boom presently is that commodity prices might continue to super-spike as panic hoarding spreads from rice to other grains, and even to metals."
The dollar gains against most major currencies on strong US earnings news. The signs of renewed confidence in the US economy and financials could continue to strengthen the dollar next week as earnings season continues.

Tracking the Dow on Friday 18/04/08

9:30am--Google's good news trounched the opening bell with a tremendous Gap-Ups,nearly 180 points.It follows by another smaller platoon of green berets holding the frontline to prevent any enemy backfire.
10:30am--The invisible camouflage,pullback to bunker.It's one hour into trading,having gauge the potential backup of armoury,went in open long position.Plan to hold till closing.
12:30pm--The first victory flag planted.
11:30am--Pullback to new bunker.
1:30pm--The Eagles has landed at Devil's Tower, Wyoming Attractions, America's Attractions
2:30pm--Time for pullback.
3:30pm--Scalper fire pullback.
4:00pm--The watch tower is in place for further action.

Enroute to a new American powerhouse.The USD to JPY has strengthen--103.68 ¥.The inverted Head has now being constructed and the next phase is the inverted left shoulder which should be a muscular biceps and triceps.
The journey for the final lapse of the presidential election campaign arm-twisting will see the jabs and more gap-ups in a heated coming weeks.
So accumulate equity positions at the sight of a pullback.

Last waltz at Wall street.

Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius said the credit-market crisis that's caused $245 billion of losses at banks and brokerages is "near the end," according to a Bloomberg report. Mobius joins the chief executives of JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers Holdings., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group in predicting that the worst of the credit crisis has passed.
The fund manager, who oversees $47 billion in emerging market equities, said he has been buying shares of banks including Bank of China and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. Malaysian equities are also becoming “more and more attractive”, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Thursday.
“Most of the bad news is already in the market,” Mobius, 71, said. “The writedowns are coming in fast and furious.” Energy stocks are his biggest investment because of rising oil prices, he said. He also added shares of Sweden’s Oriflame Cosmetics SA to his holdings recently. His $376 million Templeton Emerging Markets Fund gained 15% in the 12 months through Wednesday, compared with a 19% advance by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Great investing tips from Mark Mobius

Tracking the Dow on Thursday,17/04/08

9:30am--
Jobless claims for the week ending April 12 totaled 372,000(forecast:375,000)Less filings so inflation concern.Opening gap-down low.Black day.
10:30am--Retraced in its old fashion to find its High.(vice-cversa)
11:30am--Pullback to restart a launching pad for the 2nd half session.
12:30am--the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey came in at -24.9, which is below the reading of -15.0 economists came to expect. The survey is a regional manufacturing index.Spotted the inverted hammer,take a long position.
1:30pm--Take profit,the bearish harami and wait for chances below the MAV.
2:00pm--The usual time for any economic announcement.: After hovering near the unchanged mark, the Dow and S&P 500 fall back into the red as a Fed official gives some cautious comments. Losses are slight.
Dallas Fed President Fisher said interest rate cuts may "compound the bad" and warned against "inflating our way" out of the credit turmoil. Fisher notes he has a strong reluctance to continue to ease rates. These comments are not too surprising, considering Fisher along with Philadelphia Fed President Plosser dissented against the March 18 rate cut of 75 basis points, preferring less aggressive easing.Open a long position.
2:30pm--Take profit.Saw the' evening star.'
3:00pm--The 3 black-crows complete near MAV, time for a rebound.
3:30pm-- The 3 white musketeers completed the grilled crows.Close all positions and come back next day.
4:00pm--The closing bell.The bears are going to hammer again.

That's a spinning top again.Don't tell me that they are going to blow-off the light of a nice candlestick!!!

Panic buying coming?

(surprise, surprise) that the NYSE has reached bottom or is close to reaching one.
First, the economic figures from countries across the globe are generally still reassuring in spite of the panic on Wall Street and despite the weakening US economy.
The economic conditions outside the US are still pretty healthy, even in Europe where the euro has strengthened against almost all currencies.
The current fall is a long overdue correction, with the latest round of financial panic probably triggered, ironically, by the rescue of Bear Stearns. Instead of sending out messages of comfort, the rescue was perversely seen by investors that the condition of the US financial institutions is worse than what is being imagined.
The financial history of the US shows that the current financial upheaval is not the first financial panic experienced in the US. In 1907, there was severe financial panic where the NYSE plunged 50% in about a year. Within nine months, there were three episodes of panic.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,(mid-pivot week)16/04/08
9:30am-Hefty gap-up.Intel,the most influential stock,reported adjusted earnings of $0.29 per share, besting the consensus estimate by four cents.
10:30am-No sign of pullback to fill the gaps.The opening bell long candlestick not an inch being covered.Avoid shorting.
11:30am-The continuous army of pattern formation are steady with no spike down.Take position at this point,scalping.
12:30pm onwards the indicies never look back.It continues on its upward trail.At the end of the day,the army were nearly half dead--noticed the 'hangman dojis' They were in need of a break.

The submarine has alighted from beneath the ocean floor and the captain is peeping through his periscope to catch the first light.
They still need to break the bull pivot in order to berth on the surface and enjoy the sparkling bars ashore.
The dow index is undergoing a process of forming the inverted head.
It's good time for accumulation of equities.

The empire strikes back.

The U.S. Empire State manufacturing index improved to 0.6 in April from a record low -22.2 in March. The index was much stronger than the -17.0 reading that markets had expected. Employment was flat, after rebounding to 4.5 in March, while new orders rose to 0.1 from -4.7 the month before. Prices paid increased to 57.3 from 50.6 in March, while prices received rose to 20.8 from 15.7. The six-month ahead index slowed to 19.6 from 25.8 in March.
The data were in-line with expectations, and the steadiness in the index since the beginning of the year could suggest some bottoming in the beleaguered housing market.
YouTube - The Empire Strikes Back/ Luke vs Vader

Tracking the dow on Tuesday,15.04/08


9:30am-This morning’s economic data helped spike up the Dow at the opening bell.Take a short-position bearing in mind the long white bar signify that it's a bulls day.
10:30am-As usual this is the pullback time.An early high being set so it must find its low by covering the gap-up.
11:30am-Time to fill up the gap.
12:30am-Confirm that the bullish low has been found.There were 2 strong inverted hammers at 12:00noon.Cover back short-position and long 2 lots.
1:30pm-Retrace to the MAV.A regular phenomenon at this time.
2:30pm-Close out position.This is the PIVOT hour of the afternoon session where pullback will occur.The morning session PIVOT hour is at 11:00am.
3:30pm-Pullback near the day's opening also the bear pivot.Avoid taking position due to time factor.
4:00pm-retrace to the bull pivot.What's that final candlestick...looks like a toppish spin might pullback next day.


Looks like they are faking this mini rally.The candlestick has a weekly lower shadow.they might intend to establish another low for the week as this 3rd Friday is the index futures and options expiry date.Meantime caution again.

Voyage to the bottom of the sea.

Stocks edged lower on Monday after an unexpected quarterly loss from Wachovia Corp dragged down the financial sector, overshadowing strong gains in energy companies as oil closed at a record .Goldman Sachs hinted an "awful" quarterly earnings .
A surprising rise in U.S. retail sales also helped, after data showed a modest increase in March, pushed up by a jump in gasoline sales, according to a government report.
Tracking the Dow on Monday,14/04/08.
It's another scary day at wall street.What is going on to Ms Dow and Mr Jones!!They seemed not to be in good engagement terms.
The bullish spanish fiesta is supposed to be underway but the dow index has now found a deep trough to form a big inverted bull head.
As usual the morning pull-back occurs one-half hour after the opening and retraced in the following one-half hour.After which the shorties control the afternoon session.In the final half hour before closing were three-black-crows completing the final pull-back to set the stage for a recovery.This can be seen with a shaven bottom inverted hammer at the closing bell.
Ole, a break from the massive selling we saw on Friday.There is sign that the slumping U.S. economy is hurting companies overseas.
These pair of "morning star" candlestick pattern is a temporary relief from the pain and suffering we are undergoing.It's now at the Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea

Credit woes spillover.

The market really is focusing on the extent to which problems in the credit markets are spilling over into the real economy.Earlier this week saw disappointing results from aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. and a warning from chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
On Friday,GE injected anxiety into a market by posting a disappointing smaller-than-expected profits.Adding to the salt was a weaker-than-expected reading showing consumer confidence at a 26-year low subdued any positive sentiment.
Early clues on the direction of the economy and markets in the months ahead will see Merrill (MER) and Citi (C), which both reporting on Apr. 18,
Big industrial firms such as Caterpillar (CAT) and United Technologies (UTX) have seen strong sales overseas will see their report results on Apr. 17 and Apr. 18, respectively.
U.S. Bancorp (USB) has been relatively unscathed by the credit crunch will have its earnings report on Apr 15.Other large, mainstream banks such as PNC Financial Services (PNC) on Apr. 17, Wachovia (WB) on Apr. 18, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Apr. 16 .
There were concerns surrounding the specter of further write-downs in the financial sector, rising inflation and deteriorating profit prospects.The first quarter report and outlook from Dow component General Electric (GE), which plummeted nearly 13% added further stress.The final bell candlestick was a Gravestone Doji ,another bad omen.
Friday's candlestick is about 124 points close to the bear main support line.If it penetrates below this main determinant,we will see the sinking of the Titanic .

Mixed Signal

Dismal economic news is no longer acting as a big depressant on stock prices.
A recession seems imminent. Corporate profit growth continues to slow. Yet stocks now go up or trade sideways when bad news strikes.
Two reports released Apr. 10 presented some mixed signals on the U.S. economy.

1.) Initial jobless claims for the week ending Apr. 5 fell 53,000, to 357,000, pulling back from the prior week's 410,000

2.) The U.S. trade deficit widened to $62.3 billion in February, from $59.0 billion in January.Exports were up $3.0 billion, to $151.4 billion, while imports jumped $6.3 billion, to $213.7 billion.

S&P 500 PERFORMANCE IN RECESSIONS

Though stocks tend to slump in the first half of a recession, in the nine recessions dating back to 1953, the last half of the slump has usually been good to investors. Performance of S&P 500 during the past five recessions:
Recession 1st half 2nd half Total
Dec. 1973-March 1975 -17.4% +5.1% -13.1%
Feb. 1980-July 1980 -6.9% +14.5% +5.8%
Aug. 1990-March 1991 -9.5% +16.5 +5.4%
April 2001-Nov. 2001 +4.4% -5.9% -1.8%
Avg. since 1953-1954 -8.6% +13.2% +3.1%
Source: Citigroup Global Markets
Tracking the Dow on Thursday,10/04/08

Intel Corp shares jumped 3 percent

and helped lift all three major U.S. stock indexes after Banc of America Securities upgraded the U.S. semiconductor sector, saying a modest inventory buildup has eased.

Adding to investor confidence, Goldman Sachs Group Inc Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said on Thursday that financial markets are likely in the late stages of the credit crisis that began last summer.So in the last half hour before the closing bell we saw the onslught of three small infantry of advancing Deep Purple - Soldier Of Fortune

Engulfing candlestick.Mr Dow & Ms Jones engagement cocktail party.The heat is on.

Peabo Bryson & Roberta Flack - Tonight I Celebrate My Love

IMF annual reporting.

The U.S. economy will end the year mired in recession before mounting only a weak recovery in 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF has sharply lowered its growth forecasts for both the U.S. and global economies. The fund now predicts that the U.S. economy, hobbled by fallout from the housing market collapse, will grow at a barely perceptible annual rate of 0.5% this year and 0.6% in 2009.
All major components of domestic demand will be sickly in 2008," the report said.
The IMF forecast painted a sober portrait of a global economy struggling to shake off "the largest financial shock since the Great Depression." After five years of robust global growth, the fund predicts world growth will slow to an annual rate of 3.7% this year.
The global outlook is at risk from "financial strains" that could prove deeper than expected. The IMF says there is already a 1-in-4 chance of a worldwide recession, which the fund defines as growth below an annual rate of 3%. That last happened in 2002 as the U.S. was suffering through a sharp slowdown following the collapse of a speculative bubble in technology stocks.
In the USA, consumers will remain under pressure this year amid continued financial market turmoil and home price declines. By the end of 2008, house prices in the USA will have fallen 14% to 22%, the fund says.
As the U.S. clears away its housing and financial market wreckage, the sluggish economy will take a toll on jobseekers. The IMF expects the unemployment rate, currently 5.1%, will reach 6.3% in 2009.
The fund applauded recent actions by the Federal Reserve aimed at containing the crisis. But it said the Fed, which already has cut its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points since September, may need to continue cutting rates for some time. It said policymakers also may be forced to take more drastic steps, including using taxpayer money to support the U.S. housing market.
To reduce the risk of greater turmoil, banks need to quickly write off their losses and seek new capital, including from foreign government-backed investors known as sovereign wealth funds. Policymakers should draw up contingency plans to prevent "fire sales of impaired assets" from fueling a longer market crash, the IMF says.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,09/04/08.

The opening bell bulls:-in response to a report from The Wall Street Journal that Citigroup (C 23.58, -0.18) is close to selling $12 billion in leveraged loans and bonds to a group of private equity players. Investor sentiment remains largely depressed in afternoon trading.
Oil has hit a new intraday high of $112.15 per barrel and United Parcel Service Inc slashed its earnings forecast has caused the market spanking.

The closing bell candlestick:- inverted bullish hammer on the back of a Morning Star .

Week open High.Mid-week (Pivot Day) has established its low.What's next....retracing back to MAV and close the week on higher note.Not much of major economic news movers in the next two days except for jobless claims & international trade on Thursday.
Maybe General Electric(GE) quarterly reporting on earnings will provide another booster.

Already in recession.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan contended that he had little to do with the housing bubble or credit crisis despite criticism that the Fed kept interest rates too low under his watch.The Fed cut rates from 6.5 percent in late 2000 to 1.0 percent in mid-2003.
Greenspan said the cuts were aimed at increasing liquidity in the financial system and heading off deflation, not boosting the housing market.
Greenspan said "we are in the throes of a recession" but that it was too early to tell how deep it would be.
“We have not confronted a situation like this in over half a century," he said. “And we don’t know the dynamics because we have no real information. What we are looking at is basically a tug of war between the real economy--both in the United States and the rest of the world--and the financial systems.”
"The core of the subprime problem lies with the misjudgments of the investment community," he wrote.Subprime-mortgage securitisation exploded because it appeared mis-priced and there were few delinquencies and defaults, "creating the illusion of great profit opportunities.

Tracking the Dow on Tuesday.08/04/08

2:30 pm : The stock market falls to its worst level of the session following the March 18 FOMC minutes. Traders were disappointed to hear that many Fed officials felt that a contraction was "likely." Although somewhat sterner words, this should not come as too much of shock, as Bernanke noted in his testimony before Congress last week that the economy "could" contract .

Towards the closing bell were seen two spinning Jenny,ready for looming into a nice fabric for Ms Dow to serenade.

The Tuesday's low was very well syncronised right to previous Thursday and Friday lows hence forming the neckline.
It's being beautifully dressed up where the knight with his right arm sword hammering the door to leave the castle.The journey to the Northern Light begins.