Saturday, May 16, 2009

Sell in May and go away.

The market is tired.
It's the Halloween indicator.
The old "sell in May and go away" adage may be only partially true this year: Investors may sell a bit but aren't likely to stray very far after they do.
It's a natural pullback to happen along the way.There's going to be some profit-taking. That's the kind of market that we're in.
Wall Street's ability to shrug off bad news--like Thursday's unemployment numbers and Wednesday's drop in gross domestic product--that not so long ago would have triggered major selloffs.
The economic cycles have changed so much in the last 12 months that it's kind of difficult to pinpoint seasonality.
Investors may be wiser to "turn a deaf ear this year.Therefore, one should be open and positioned for this possibility.
This is not an eternal buy-and-hold situation. You have to have a true level of active management.
Recovery isn't going to happen until the real stimulus kicks in.From an economic standpoint that's end of summer, early winter.
Greed is starting to trickle in a little bit,once greed trickles in it's as big an emotion as fear. It will be interesting to see if the (sell in May) adage is real.
So be cautious and on lookout:-June Dow Futures expiry on 19/06/09 is the TRIPLE WITCHING DAY.Seven days before this actual day clear all positions and stay away.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,15/05/09(Futures Expiry Day)
9:30am:--An opening hangman with a weak 40.0 point spike up.
The Treasury decided to make $22 billion in TARP funds available to a number of life insurance companies.
10:30am:--The bullish high with a bearish harami.
In economic news, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat month-over-month, which is in-line with expectations following a 0.1% monthly.
decrease for March.
11:30am:--The bearish engulfing cover back to the day's open.
Financials are also under pressure in the early going.Utilities stocks continue to trade with the most weakness.
12:30noon:--The bearish hammer & engulfing at session low.
This session's lack of direction is largely the result of a lack of leadership.
1:30pm:--Another session low with bearish inverted hammer.
Financials, which have been instrumental to the broader market's advances in recent months, failed to garner support and are now trading with a 2.5% loss.
2:30pm:--Bearish spike down,another session low.
Weakness remains broad-based as stocks trade near their session lows.
3:30pm:--The technical rebound time with a bullish doji spin.
Energy commodities faced significant selling pressure this session.
4:00pm:--Bullish harami.
The healthy pullback has completed on time for the Dow expiry today.Time for a rebound and short-covering.
The Dow index has pulled back right down to the bear critical pivot.If this pattern condition persist till end of month,look to liquidate all positions.
It will form a graveyard doji.
Meanwhile the May candlestick todate is a replica of graveyard doji (white body) but the chances of covering back the long upper shadow is also very promising.A rebound will bring us right to the half section of the shadow only.