Friday, October 8, 2010

Easing the economic pain.

Economists — at least some economists — believe that when you want to improve the economy you need to get more money out there, circulating around.
Hence the government must spend money or the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates, which makes it cheaper to borrow. So people borrow more, buy more, build more new things.
But with this financial crisis, for the first time in U.S. history, those two tools won't work.
With quantitative easing, the Fed comes along and do the midas touch--Create new money, get it out there, everyone wins.
The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a monetary policy used by central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system.
A central bank implements QE by first crediting its own account with money it creates ex nihilo ("out of nothing").It then purchases financial assets, including government bonds, agency debt, mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions in a process referred to as open market operations. The purchases, by way of account deposits, give banks the excess reserves required for them to create new money, and thus induce a hopeful stimulation of the economy, by the process of deposit multiplication from increased lending in the fractional reserve banking system.
The Dow is 5 market days to index futures expiry.
Monday,11/10/10 is Columbus Day.
9:30am:-A 20.0 points opening gap up.
A loss of 95,000 nonfarm jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 9.6% holds back an early trust.
10:30am:--Pullback to find an early session low with a morning star.
11:30am:--Retracement to morning high again,bullish inverted hammer noted at the 11,000 mark for the first time.
12:30noon:--Bulls are still holding tightly near the high.A combination of modest private-sector job growth combined with dragging employment on the state and local government levels could be a trend that continues for many months ahead.
1:30pm:--Bearish engulfing pullback to the MAV support line.
2:30pm:--Technical rebound.The October crash anniversary is now celebrated with a bullish reversal,contrary to the annual belief.
3:30pm:--A new session high.A weak jobs report increases the possibility the Fed would pump more money into the financial system—known as quantitative easing—to help spur growth.
4:00pm:--Profit taking to the bullish support line.
The Dow is now very near to the 52 weeks high of 11,309.00
The bulls general pattern to date:
Nov'09:--Bear crash.Dec & Jan bulls.
Feb'10:--Bear crash.Mac & Apr bulls.
May'10--Bear crash.Jun & July double dip.
Aug'10:--Bull .
September:--Early anniversary crash.
October Bull & November pre-election bull.
December:--Year end dip,post election??
The Fed,mind your language,too sensitive to market.