Sunday, October 17, 2010

Hot money and currency war.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in remarks at a Boston Fed conference that the central bank may expand asset purchases or change the language in its statement, while saying “nonconventional policies” have costs and limitations. “There would appear -- all else being equal -- to be a case for further action,” Bernanke said.
The central bank will release on Oct. 20 its Beige Book survey of regional Fed banks. Last month, the report found the economic rebound showed signs of slowing. Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting released on Oct. 12 indicated that policy makers were poised to take more easing steps “before long.”
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will delay a report on international currencies, including China’s yuan, while citing progress in the acceleration of the pace of the yuan’s rise.
The yuan advanced 0.5 percent this week and touched 6.6406, the strongest level since the central bank unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993.
The report will be delayed until after the meetings of the Group of 20 nations in the coming weeks, according to a statement from the Treasury.
The greenback has tumbled 5 percent against the yen since Sept. 15, when Japan acknowledged intervening in the market by selling the currency to prevent its strength from undermining the nation’s export-dependent economy.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),quoted that "There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon.
"Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery," he said.
Unilateral action by one central bank can, therefore, set off or fuel disputes in other parts of the world. Although America sees itself as a victim of global currency intervention, many people argue that its own policies are the cause.
Meanwhile short-term capital flows(hot-money) are disturbing emerging economies and it can be a catastrophe.The US is the epicentre, causing chaos over the rest of the world by printing cheap money.
Tracking the Friday's Dow,(Index Futures Expiry Day)
Asian Index Futures expiry,29/10/10.Pre-rollover contracts,22/10/10

09:30am:--A bullish 40.0 points gap-up with a bearish dark cloud cover.
10:30am:--Index nosedived to session low,bullish hammering out the low.
11:30am:--Rebound to MAV resistance line,graveyard doji confirmation.
12:30n00n:--After pulling back to the bear pivot support,a rebound at this moment failed to kiss the MAV resistance line.Hangman checkmate.
1:30pm:--A second attempt to test the resistance fall short of target.Graveyard doji again.
2:30pm:--Another rebound that failed the MAV resistance test.
3:30pm:--Fallback to bear pivot support line,morning star followed.
4:00pm:--A third MAV resistance attempt,complete failure.Bears overwhelmed the bulls in today's tug of war.
Two bearish dojis,covering back the whole of Wednesday's candlestick body greeted the Index/options futures expiry day.
On the whole the three pairs are still hoovering above the bull pivot support and it's still a bullish play.
Friday's early bulls cheered the market after a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to another round of monetary easing from the central bank.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October thus giving the bears a bigger leeway to find a reason to sell the market.