Monday, July 7, 2008

Virgin with lots of money.

Guess which place was China's second highest supplier of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first five months of this year? With negligible foreign trade with China, curiously enough, it's British Virgin Islands.
With a population of merely 20,000 but registered companies exceeding 290,000, the famous global offshore financial center poured $7.39 billion into China in these past five months.
As a center of international hot money, quite a number of FDI coming from British Virgin Islands are merely hot money seeking a new destination for arbitrage purposes.
Although China's trade surplus has started to shrink this year, its foreign exchange reserves are growing at an ever faster pace. In April, forex reserves grew by $74.5 billion, the biggest one-month jump in the country's history. This amount equals half of the total reserve growth for the first three months of the year.
Going by a standard formula to calculate "hot money" - foreign exchange reserves minus FDI, trade surplus and interest income - the residual $44.2 billion can be assumed to be the speculative capital that China received in April.
Hot money is defined as the funds that flow into a country to take advantage of a favorable interest rate regime in order to obtain higher returns. They influence the balance of payments and strengthen the exchange rate of the recipient country while weakening the currency of the country losing the money. Such funds are held in currency markets by speculators, as opposed to national banks or domestic investors. Thus they are volatile and shift to another foreign exchange market at the drop of a hat in response to changes in relative interest rates.
map of the british virgin islands and british virgin islands map ...
Tracking the Dow on Monday,07/07/08
9:30am--A mild gap-up.
Uncomfortable news,Merrill Lynch (MER) may be closer to selling its stake in a few of its holdings to raise cash ahead of expected write-downs.
10:30am--Ascending Top.
No sign of gap filling back.A bit of caution.There's a shooting star,graveyard doji seen.
11:30am--A second graveyard doji near the top.
Credit Suisse (CS 42.12, -2.00) and UBS (UBS 19.44, -0.88) to raise additional capital, according to Reuters.Bad news again on subprime.Sell,short the market.
12:30pm--The suicide squad.
San Francisco Fed President Yellen stated that core inflation is likely to rise as businesses pass on higher costs to consumers and housing prices likely fall well into 2009. The confluence of inflation and depressed home values has a dampening effect on consumers' spirits as families spend more despite a diminished sense of wealth.
Close buy back position for the morning session.
1:30pm--Congestion,main candlestick bearish inverted hammer.
Depressed oil prices are lending support to the session’s buying in the absence of market-moving earnings reports. Crude futures are now below $140 per barrel, offsetting last week’s ascent.
Open buy,long position for aftrenoon session and look to sell at MAV or half way in between.Punting,scalping.
2:30pm--Spinning bottom with two bullish shaven ascending soldier.
The major indices remain entrenched in negative territory, led there by an ailing financial sector and held there by a dearth of leadership.The reversal in the dollar's earlier fortunes has helped oil prices bounce off lower levels. After hitting $139.50 at their low today, oil prices are back to $142.87.
3:30pm--The ascend.
Only the technology sector is sporting a gain, currently up 0.4%. Tech has been helped by shares of Yahoo! (YHOO 24.04, +2.69), which are trading higher on speculation of a possible major transaction.
Sell,close position at MAV.
4:00pm--Doji star at the bottom of bear.
An idecision as to direction of next day.It can dig another grave or make another short-covering.
A lack of concerted leadership during trading contributed to the broad-based declines Monday. Financials were the worst performer yet again. The financial sector had been up more than 1.0% early on, but fell to a loss of 4.0% in the afternoon. It closed 3.2% lower. Fannie Mae (FNM 15.74, -2.99) and Freddie Mac (FRE 11.91, -2.59) were two notable laggards in the sector. The two outfits encountered concerted selling pressure on chatter that accounting changes could force the companies to bring off-balance sheet assets on to their books, thus requiring large capital raises. Selling pressure eased, though, on the realization that Lehman Brothers noted the mortgage lenders would likely be exempt from the requirement.