Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Bush inheritance of budget deficit.

The US government's budget deficit will surge past a half-trillion dollars next year, according to gloomy new estimates, a record flood of red ink that promises to force the winner of the presidential race to dramatically alter his economic agenda.
Good luck to the new president would be Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain.
That figure is sure to rise after adding the tens of billions of dollars in additional Iraq war funding it doesn't include, and the total could be higher yet if the economy fails to recover as the administration predicts.
McCain promises to renew the full roster of Bush tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 and add many more for businesses and upper income people who pay the alternative minimum tax. The Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2010 and renewing them would soon cost well over $200 billion a year. Eliminating the alternative minimum at the same time would cost almost as much.
Obama would repeal tax cuts on wealthier taxpayers and investors but would leave most of the Bush tax cuts in place while seeking additional cuts for senior citizens, the middle class and the working poor. And he also wants lots of new spending for health care, education and many other federal programs.
Monday's figures capped a remarkable deterioration in the United States' budgetary health under Bush's time in office.

Tracking the Dow on Monday,28/07/08

9:30am--Gap Down 50.0 points.
News that federal regulators seized two more failed U.S. banks late last week triggered this morning fear.
10:30am--Bearish Engulfing.
Fear of more credit and housing market turmoil battered financial shares and a mixed bag of quarterly results added to uncertainty the outlook for corporate profits.Open Sell position.
11:30am--Hangman,Bear & Graveyard.
A triple blow,session low.Candle pattern is a long bearish shaven top.Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on supply concerns, further unnerving investors and renewing some worries about inflation and consumer spending.
12:30pm--Bearish engulfing.
Still hoovering at morning session low.
1:30pm--Graveyard dojis.
Among the hardest-hit shares were Merrill Lynch down more than 11 percent; Citigroup off over 7 percent and Lehman Brothers down more than 10 percent.It's another session low,nearly 170 points down.
2:30pm--Inverted hammer.
Looks like a technical rebound but maybe shortlive in view of the long bearish bar.Buy-back and close position.
3:30pm--Hangman & bearish hammer.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, stumbled after a Merrill analyst said the firm may post a third-quarter loss and face a round of fresh write-downs on its residential mortgage portfolio.
4:00pm--Bearish Engulfing.
Closing at near day's low.

The sell-off came after a rally last week that lifted many banks' shares 40 percent or more.
According to a Bush Administration official cited in an Associated Press report, the next U.S. president will inherit a record budget deficit approaching $490 billion. The official said the deficit was being driven to an all-time high by the sagging economy and the stimulus payments being made to 130 million households in an effort to keep the country from falling
into a deep recession.

Bonds soared Monday as investors ran to a safe haven from the falling equities market. The two-year Treasury rose 08/32 to 100-11/32 for a yield of 2.57%; 10-year notes gained 24/32 to 98-30/32 for a yield of 4%; and the 30-year bond added 1-08/32 to 96-10/32 for a yield of 4.61%.