Wednesday, July 16, 2008

A fragile US economy.

Despite the Fed's aggressive interest rate reductions and other fortifying steps,the fragile economy is facing "numerous difficulties" & "significant challenges".
All the economy's problems -- including slumping home values, which threaten to make people feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend in the months ahead -- represent "significant downside risks" to economic growth.
Over the rest of this year, the economy will grow "appreciably below its trend rate" mostly because of continued weakness in housing markets, high energy prices and tight credit conditions, Bernanke said.
"Given the high degree of uncertainty" about the Fed's economic outlook, Fed policymakers will need to carefully assess incoming information about inflation and economic growth, he said.
Tracking the Dow on 16/07/08.

9:30am--Flat starter.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is giving his semiannual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 ET, and the FOMC meeting minutes from the June 25 meeting are set for release at 2:00 ET.
10:30am--Candle pattern,a sword of justice.
Wells Fargo (WFC) reports better-than-expected earnings and raises its divided by 10%.Open buy,long position.
11:30am--Main Candle,white bar.
Hoovering near session high despite the bearish hangman.CPI is now up 5.0% year-over-year (consensus +4.5%) and core CPI is up 2.4%(consensus +2.3%).
12:30pm--Dragonfly doji seen.
Just hitting the wires, industrial production in June rose 0.5%, topping the expected 0.1% increase.
1:30pm--Bullish spike up.
Just hitting the wires, crude inventories for the week ended July 11 rose 2.95 million barrels, compared to the expected draw of 2.2 million. Crude prices were trading down 0.9% to $137.44 just prior to the release.
2:30pm--New session high,an unshaven top bullish candle.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is currently answering questions from Housing Financial Services Committee members.Of note, the chairman said the GSEs (Fannie Mae (FNM 7.91, +0.84) and Freddie Mac (FRE 5.93, +0.67)) are adequately capitalized and in no danger of failing. He went on to say that action by Congress is justifiable in order to raise confidence.
3:30pm--Another session high spike up.
The FOMC meetings showed that some Fed officials favored a rate rise very soon, fearing an "upward drift in long-run inflation expectations." Rates were left unchanged at the last Fed meeting, although there was a dissention that called for a rate increase.
4:00pm--Ascending soldiers.
A pause for next strategy.Close position.

On Wednesday, the financial sector soared the most in its 19-year history after Wells Fargo (WFC 27.14, +6.63) reported better-than-expected earnings, sparking a rally that was compounded by short-covering. As a result, the stock market posted a large 2.5% gain, as a steep drop in crude prices helped overshadow a disappointingly high inflation reading.
A prelude to the Dow Index futures expiry this Friday.A normal phenomenal rebound from its low.