Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Inflation to cause global recession

Slower growth is spreading around the world with inflation being main threat to causing global recession, U.S. Conference Board said.
Vice President and Chief Economist of U.S. Conference Board Bart van Ark told a press briefing that with U.S. consumer confidence hitting the lowest level since 1992, and employment trends index showing no relief in short term, U.S. economy is in a solid slow growth mode, with little perspective to move much in rest of 2008.
Meanwhile, Europe and emerging economies in Asia are also showing significant slowdown in economy growth, he said.
Van Ark pointed out that the main downward risk comes from global inflation. While U.S. and European inflation trends may come down as demand eases, the global trend, in particular for emerging economies remains worrying, he said.
"Even after speculative bubbles burst, inflation rate may not come down to level before the increase," van Ark said. "Demand- supply mismatches will not be easily relaxed, and protectionist backlashes may distort global growth."
Established in 1916, the U.S. Conference Board is the world's preeminent business membership and research organization, best known for its monthly U.S. Consumer Confidence Index and the Leading Economic Indicators.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,09/07/08
9:30am--20.0 point gap up.
Crude prices are up 1.1% to $137.52 per barrel, which follows two consecutive sessions of steep losses.
Alcoa (AA 33.69, +1.36) reported a drop in earnings that met estimates.
10:30am--Evening stars.
The financial sector (-1.2%) is under selling pressure after its 6% advance yesterday.Main candlestick shape is a doji.
11:30am--Another shooting star.
Looks like a double top with a candlestick pattern of a bullish hammer.Sell-short position.
12:30pm--Three black crows having aerial tussle.
Boeing (BA 66.69, +0.77) and Northrop Grumman (NOC 66.09, -0.08) are going to recompete over the disputed air refueling tanker contract.
1:30pm--More evening stars.
Buyers have not shown much interest following yesterday's late session rally.
2:30pm--Hangman.
The main candlestick pattern is a black bar with unshaven bottom.
3:30pm--Hangman around the guillotine.
Market bulls are disappointed that there was no follow-through from yesterday's rally.
4:40pm--The Darkness.
A Midsummer Night's Dream (1999) oracle completed.
Stock market bulls are not happy with the market's performance on Wednesday. Stocks plummeted, led by weakness in financials and tech, giving up the market's entire advance made in the previous session. News was slow, with only one major company reporting earnings and no economic reports.
Let's see the double bottom here should translate into a rebound & short covering.