Monday, June 15, 2009

The worst slide in a month.

1) regional manufacturing data dented optimism about the economy's health and resource shares fell alongside commodity prices.
2) investors are looking for more definitive signals of its improving health.
3) the New York Fed's Empire State index survey showed the factory sector shrank at a much more severe rate in June than the previous month.(this monthly index is very important)
In light volume, the indexes racked up their biggest one-day percentage loss since mid-May.The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX - News), known as Wall Street's fear gauge, closed above the 30 level for the first time since early June, suggesting more turmoil could be in store. The VIX jumped 9.5 percent to end at 30.81, its biggest percentage gain since late April.
This week marks quadruple witching, a term used to describe the quarterly expiration of June equity options, index options, single stock futures and index futures. This can bring more volatility as players adjust or exercise their derivative positions.
Tracking the Dow on Monday,15/06/09.(4 market days to Quadraple witching.)
9:30am:--Bungee jump 110.0 feet gap-down.
Index got entangled at the bear foot.The spinning dojis follow suit.
10:30am:--No sign of retrace to fill opening gap.
It's at session low.There is broad-based selling .Overseas markets also showed weakness.
11:30am:--Another new low with a bullish marubozu.
The 10-year Treasury Note is being quoted 10 ticks higher with a 3.75% yield and the 30-year Bond is up 14 ticks and yielding 4.62%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up almost 0.8%.A Russian official indicated the dollar will remain the primary reserve currency of choice.
12:30 noon:--A second bullish marubozu,the fallen bulls are recuperating
A stronger dollar has led to a weak commodities and basic materials trade.
1:30pm:--The tri-star recovery.
Crude oil prices are down 1.9% to $70.70 per barrel; they are still up almost 60% year-to-date, though.
2:30pm:--Intermittent technical pullback,a graveyard doji.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner stated that it is too early to withdraw stimulus.
3:30pm:--Retracement with bullish engulfing.
Most of the weakness among commodities and materials stocks stems from a 1.5% jump in the Dollar Index, which has gained in the wake of supportive comments regarding the greenback's status as a reserve currency from a Russian official ahead of a meeting of BRIC nations. That is, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
4:00pm:--A half-hearted profit taking.The spinning doji within the white candlestick looking forward to short cover.
June candlestick to date is an inverted bullish hammer.Overall this bear rally is still bullish.
The pullback has completed its mission right to this month bear pivot point.
The long upper shadow is a short-covering zone.
So now look forward to a rebound towards the MAV line(green) and take profit once near the bull pivot.(yellow line) High Volatility this week prelude to index expiry.
There might be a surprise witching day bull again.