Sunday, June 7, 2009

Crude oil price versus Dow index

Investors use stock markets as a bellwether for the economy, and a stronger economy demands more energy. In recent months, oil prices have largely tracked stock markets because investors bet that as the economy goes, so goes demand for oil.
As stocks surged, Treasury prices fell and the dollar weakened. Government debt and the greenback are both perceived as investor safe havens, but as recovery hopes gain strength, investors move funds into higher yielding assets.
The weakening dollar boosted oil prices. Crude is traded in the U.S. currency around the globe, and so a weaker dollar pushes the prices of oil up in relation to other currencies.
The weakness in the dollar was also a result of inflationary fears in the wake of the unprecedented spending initiatives from the government to spur the economy into recovery.
For example, the government has committed another $30 billion to GM to fund operations during its reorganization, on top of the initial $19.4 billion that the government has already invested in the Detroit automaker.
The buying of General Motors and another $30 billion dollars to finance GM's bankruptcy is just the latest in nonstop spending that is shaking the confidence in the fate of the U.S.; credit rating
Tracking the Dow on Friday,05/06/09.(10 market days to Qudraple Witching)
9:30am:--An early 90.0 points gap up followed by spinning top.( evening star)
The employment report for May, and it didn't disappoint. Nonfarm Payrolls came in at -345,000, well below the -520,000 consensus estimate, while the prior two months saw positive revisions.
10:30am:--Opening bulls gap being fully filled and a bullish spinning low followed.(morning star)
It marked the fourth straight month that the pace of layoffs slowed.
11:30am:--A shooting star at near session high with bearish pullback to MAV.
The increase in the nation's unemployment rate from 8.9 percent in April underscores the difficulties that America's 14.5 million unemployed are having in finding new jobs.
12:30noon:--A technical rebound met with resistance.
Bank of America Corp. on Friday named four outsiders to its embattled and newly expanded board of directors, after two others resigned from the board over the past week.
1:30pm:--Bearish hammer near the MAV line.
A U.S. appeals court conditionally approved Chrysler's sale of most of its assets to Italy's Fiat Friday, but is keeping the deal on hold until Monday to allow an appeal to the nation's highest court.
2:30pm:--The MAV support line broken with the bears being engulfed by the bulls at the moment.
Bond yields jumped again on Friday as a sell-off in Treasurys continued, an ominous sign for anyone looking to buy a home or refinance their loans.
3:30pm:--Retracement to MAV resistance line but the graveyard doji star put a brake on it.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s new President and CEO Mike Duke pledged to shareholders Friday that the world's largest retailer will speed efforts to improve its operations as it aims to hold onto customers when the economy improves.
4:00pm:--A bullish spin embeded with a slight profit-taking.
A follow through bull.
A mixed Friday closing with lower volume but it managed to hold above MAV line which is in the bull county.
It is attempting to break higher as it is now just a quarter section to reach the 52 weeks MAV line of 9,595.44 points.
The overall candlestick for June to date is a very bullish near unshaven bottom and top.
The bear rally is going to be over once a total of 800 points is being fully covered.Just guess how long will it takes?At this time crude oil might be back to USD120.00 per barrel.Hyper-Inflation is back and interest rate up & the Dow falls for the cold winter month of halloween.