Monday, June 8, 2009

Bonds surge.

Long-term Treasury bond yields continue to creep toward 4%, a level they haven't traded at since mid-October.
Is the recent surge in bond yields merely confirmation that the economy is starting to recover or will the increase in long-term interest rates imperil any chance of an economic rebound?
It probably depends on how much higher bond rates go.
Treasury prices have fallen sharply in the past few months, coinciding with the massive rally in stocks. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so that has pushed rates on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury up to about 3.9%, from a low of 2.04% in mid-December.
If the recession is really nearing an end, it would make sense that bond prices would fall. Investors should be more willing to bet on riskier assets such as stocks in a period of economic expansion and sell some of the bonds they had bought in a proverbial flight to quality rush.
Rising yields are often a sign that the bond market is more focused on inflation.
Tracking the Dow on Monday.08/06/09 (9 market days to Quadraple Witching)
9:30am:--50.0 points bearish gap-down.
Regulators are expected to approve today the capital-raising plans of several banks, according to The Wall Street Journal, while the Fed is expected to announce which financial firms will be allowed to repay TARP funds.
10:30am:--A morning star spin.
One hour into trading and no sign of opening gap being filled.Financial stocks are showing relative strength in the early going.
11:30am:--A technical rebound but with a bearish engulfing still short of the MAV resistance line.
Weakness remains widespread.
12:30noon:--Another bearish session low.
The failure to move higher on relatively encouraging data has led some to question whether positive economic news is already being priced into stocks.
1:30pm:--The bears still reluctant to budge.
Weakness has been particularly noticable among airline stocks. As such, the AMEX Airline Index is down 2.8%. According to The Wall Street Journal some expect that worldwide losses for airlines could total $9 billion in 2009.
2:30pm:--A bullish hammer of a downtrend.
Meanwhile, crude oil finished the session fractionally lower at $68.28 per barrel.
3:30pm:--A three bullish candlestick spike up covering the opening bearish gap.
An evening doji star being the high if the day has put a brake.
4:00pm:--A three black crow ending the day.
A mild catch up to follow.
The witches have started their foreplay.
June 3,the bearish unshaven hammer signalled the start of the short-sellers game.
June 4,the bullish hammer.The intention of hammering whenever the market rebounded.
June 5,the doji spin.An evening star pair.
June 8,another doji star this time with a long lower shadow,a section reserved for hammering.
The 52 weeks bear rally resistance(R1) of 8,806.60 have been pierced through twice this week.Is this the turning point of the bear rally to pullback to the bear pivot point again?The witching day might give the answer.