Saturday, May 10, 2008

High Yuan-Exporters hit.

The rapid appreciation of the Chinese currency against the US dollar is taking a big toll on Asian companies using China as base for exports to the United States, according to a top US business official.
The yuan has risen 18 percent against the dollar since China abandoned a peg in July 2005, and the currency breached a key psychological level of 7.0 yuan to one dollar on April 10.
The higher yuan makes US exports more competitive with Chinese goods in their home market, while business costs for largely Asian companies producing and exporting from China will rise as they pay more local currency for labor and raw materials and sell their products to the US market in dollars.
Companies from Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore selling to the US market had shifted their production to China over the last 10 years or so to be more cost-competitive.
The exchange rate change and other cost increases happening in China now are having an impact. That is a different set of companies than US companies, most of which invested in China for the China market.
The yuan's rise, partly permitted by Beijing to contain soaring inflation, is a bit of an irony.
The prices of China-made goods in the United States have gone up, but not as much as the yuan appreciation, while Chinese exports are growing much less rapidly.
In 2007 China recorded an enormous current account surplus of 378 billion dollars, or 12 percent of its gross domestic product.
However, China's inflation has kept rising, partly because of the mounting current account surplus. China's central bank needs to flood the market with more yuan bills, in order to take reserve of all foreign currencies. Expanded liquidity of the yuan has extended liquity, and made inflation worse. China's inflation hit 8 percent in the first 3 months.

Tracking the Dow on Friday,09/05/08.

9:30am--A big spike down of nearly 130 points at the opening bell.AIG reported it lost $7.81 billion -- its second straight quarterly loss -- and revealed plans to raise $12.5 billion in the coming months.
10:30am--(12,850+12,730)/2=(12,790MAV or Half Gap).The mini bull spin here justified a BUY/LONG position as it will close the half-gap.Clear position by selling/short without fail at the half gap.
11:30am--A Very Bearish Harami(Engulfing).SELL/Short here.
12:30pm--An hour has passed yet indicies hanging dangerously sideways below the MAV.Here noticed another bearish harami.Hold on earlier position.
1:30pm--A new session low set.So the new MAV is now 12,788.The dragonfly doji seen here justify to buy/long position again as the retracement is about to start.
2:30pm--The overall day's candlestick is a black bar (bearish).Hence any rebound is a must to sell.
3:30pm--It finally choose this time to bring it to the MAV of the day.Sell/Short position.
4:00pm--The many spinning dojis here again signify the grave-diggers are still at work.

This is the third session low with alternating spinning bullish dojis.The nature of the 3rd spin on Monday will determine whether the bulls plan to short-cover again.
Rising crude oil prices remained a source of worry for investors.
Earnings season draws to a close next week with Wal-Mart and Hewlett-Packard the remaining Dow Components still left to report. Is there a last minute earnings trade here?