Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The Fed's Minutes.

Federal Reserve officials strongly suggested they won't be inclined to cut interest rates further even as they sharply downgraded their forecast for economic growth this year, citing damage from a housing slump, credit crunch and galloping energy prices.
Fed officials viewed economic activity "as likely to be particularly weak in the first half of 2008; some rebound was anticipated in the second half of this year," the documents stated.
The Fed also forecast higher unemployment and inflation for this year.
"Most members viewed the decision to reduce interest rates at this meeting as a close call," the documents showed. "Although downside risks to growth remained, members were also concerned about the upside risks to the inflation outlook, given the continued increases in oil and commodity prices."
Tracking the Dow on wednesday,21/05/08
9:30am--A weak bull
Awaiting the April 30 FOMC meeting minutes.Crude oil hit an all-time high of $130.47 per barrel ahead of the government's weekly energy inventory report at 10:30 ET.
10:30am--Graveyard Doji.Main Candlestick a bearish inverted hammer.
The early high was noted.Just hitting the wires, crude oil inventories for the week ended May 17 fell 5.32 million barrels, snapping four straight weeks of inventory builds.Open a sell-short position.
11:30am--Rebound but a bearish spin.
Boeing (BA 82.10, -3.04) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 45.42, -1.04) come under selling pressure.
12:30pm--The bears in command.
Crude oil prices spiked from the unchanged mark to a gain of 2.4% at $132.08 per barrel marking an all-time high.
1:30pm--Main candle still an inverted hammer.
Index hoovering near the low.
2:30pm--A longer bearish formation.
Market participants are concerned over the negative FOMC meeting minutes, with the Fed cutting its growth forecast and raising its inflation expectations. Several FOMC members said that it was unlikely that they will ease policy in the near term, even if the economy sees a contraction.
3:30pm--Another graveyard doji.
Decided to hang on position till closing.A day's low was set here.
4:00pm--A 4-legged doji.
Close buy-long postion.The 4-legged frog is waiting to leap again.
The FOMC released the minutes from its April 30 meeting around 2:00 ET, which sent stocks tumbling. The Fed noted its decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was a "close call" given the current inflation risks. The Fed expects 2008 real GDP growth of between 0.3% and 1.2%, which is down about 1% from their previous forecast. The 2008 inflation outlook was increased, as was the unemployment rate forecast. Several FOMC members said that it was unlikely that it would be appropriate to ease monetary policy in the near term, even if the economy sees a contraction given the current inflation environment.Wednesday indicies are just an inch below the 52 weeks MAV. and should retrace again.