Saturday, May 17, 2008

Fed's circuit..

On Tuesday, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn speaks in New Orleans on the economic outlook at 9am. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh speaks Wednesday on using the federal funds rate in extraordinary times at 1pm. Fed Governor Randall Kroszner speaks at 9pm Thursday on the prospects for recovery and repair of mortgage markets at a conference of state bank supervisors in Florida.
The FOMC minutes are on Wednesday at 2pm.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that financial markets are "considerably calmer" now than they were two months ago. He predicted the economy will be rebounding by the second half of this year.But he did forecast that the stimulus checks going to 130 million households would help spur growth in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, the United Nations warned the world economy could see a severe downturn, with growth of just 1.8% expected this year, as a result of the U.S. housing and financial market bust.

Tracking the Dow on Friday:16/05/08


9:30am--Bearish Spin.
Open with 10.0 points gap down. The Commerce Department's report that home construction jumped 8.2 percent in April.Oil sets record near $128; pump price at high, too
10:30am--Inverted Hammer
(H13,000+L12,945)/2=12,973(MAV).Index is now at MAV,risks opening any positions at MAV.
11:30am--Hammer a downtrend.
(H13,00+12,900)/2=12,950(MAV).It's a better range play so open a buy-long position.There is a dragonfly doji here.
12:30pm--A spinning bottom.
It's near and at the MAV just coming up from its bottom.Morning session discipline must clear around here.No hesitation.
1:30pm--Bearish marubozu.
The main index candlestick is a black bar so this pullback here being held above the bear pivot is a time to open long position again for the new afternoon session.A double spinner seen.
2:30pm--Bullish marubozu.
The 2 spinning dojis above the MAV followed by a spike up is now in favour of the 2nd session bulls.U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was upbeat about the credit crisis but said that housing problems are the biggest risk to the economy.His speech helped the spike up.
3:30pm--Bullish marubozu
The options expiry kicked in during the final moments of trading. Today is the 3rd Friday of the month.Index still holding strongly.
4:00pm--Bullish Harami.
Traders squared positions before the weekend.The bullish engulfing candlestick is a good sign of ensuing party.

It's an ascending chart.The unshaven white candlestick as noticed in the 3 instances are sheer sign that the market transformation is taking place.It's no more the fake bulls,but real ones.