Monday, December 27, 2010

Latest China IPO box office.

Youku.com Inc. American Deposit (NYSE:YOKU),is an online television/online video portal which operates as a Chinese Internet video Website. It offers user-generated and professional video content in China and internationally. The company also provides Youku Index, an online video ranking to track the popular videos in real-time. In addition, it offers Partnership Plan 3.0, a strategic map aimed at rationalizing and developing an online copyright market for China. The company enables Chinese Internet users to watch and share videos. Youku.com Inc was formerly known as 1Verge, Inc. and changed its name to Youku.com Inc in 2008. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Beijing, China.
It was listed on the 8th December 2010 with an opening price of USD27.00(priced 15.368 million shares at $12.80).The company has its headquarters on the fifth floor of the Sinosteel Plaza building in Haidian District, Beijing.It was founded by Victor Koo, former President of Chinese Internet portal Sohu.
Tracking the Dow on Monday,27/12/10
Asian Index Futures Expiry:31/12/10
09:30am:-- Bearish 40.0 points gap-down.China's central bank tacked on another 25 basis points to its target lending rate and deposit rate.
10:30am:--A retracement to session MAV resistance,dark clouds.
11:30am:--Holding near MAV resistance,finding a support at the bear top.
12:30noon:--A breakout of the resistance line.Bulls in sight.
1:30pm:--Another bullish rebound.Inverted hammer.Tech stocks are the main supporter.
2:30pm:--Ascending soldiers on scene reaching the bull resistance line.
3:30pm:--Shooting star at the bull resistance line.
4:00pm:--Bearish engulfing.Traders are still on vacation judging from the thin volume.
A post holiday season hangman candlestick.Pullback to follow,the spinning top on Thursday is also a concern as this might blow off the lighted candlestick.
China's central bank Christmas gift to the Dow, another 25 basis points to its target lending rate and deposit rate. The decision, which is intended to stave off inflation, rekindled concern about slower growth in China and, in turn, a more sluggish global economic recovery.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Live fire drill near axis of evil.

North Korea is an authoritarian regimes and a one party state.Recently they have a missile called "the Musudan."
The Musudan is now playing a starring role in reports this week prompted by WikiLeaks' release of U.S. diplomatic cables. One of the documents says that Iran has obtained 19 of the missiles from North Korea, prompting news reports suggesting that the Islamic republic can hit targets in Western Europe and deep into Russia - farther than Iran's existing missiles can strike.
However, experts who analyzed Oct. 10 photographs of the Musudan said it appeared to be a mock-up. Such documents sources are a bit muddy.
A large quantity of Soviet naval ballistic missile parts were shipped to North Korea during the Soviet collapse of the 1990s and the Musaban might have its origin.
The latest news that sends shivers throughout the financial market is that South Korea plans to carry out a planned firing drill from an island near the border with North Korea from Monday morning.North Korea has threatened reprisals if the drill goes ahead.
The North Koreans will just keep their Taepodong Missiles for display purposes and strike hard to its neigbours and the foward deployed South Korean armies and US forces by employing lethal chemical weapons that virtually all the fire support systems in its inventory could deliver.
Tracking the Dow,3rd Friday being Quadraple Witching Day.
09:30am:--Bearish Open gap-down.Renewed concerns about the euro zone debt crisis after Ireland's credit rating was slashed.Bullshit:Funds unwinding position for year end book closing.
10:30am:--Holding near session bear support.Graveyard dojis.
11:30am:--After finding a morning session low,index is hoovering now near MAV resistance line.
12:30noon:--Still hoovering near the MAV resistance line.
1:30pm:--A bullish breakout of the MAV resistance line.
2:30pm:--Attempts to break the day's highest failed.Bearish hangman noticed.
3:30pm:--Day's bullish support line being hit.Bearish engulfing.
4:00pm:--A last minute short-covering near day's high.
Stocks were very volatile as quarterly "quadruple witching"occurs during the session with stock index futures, stock index options, stock equity options and single stock futures expiring. Investors typically reduce their positions in the run up to Christmas creating low volumes in the markets, which could add to the volatility.
Friday's candlestick depicts that of a hangman and could see further profit taking below the lower shadow.
Don't worry,those ratings downgraders will be using their theme to playdown the markets.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Fed's hidden agenda.

In the mid-2000s, Alan Greenspan was the hero of the financial world. With his blunt philosophy of inflation, Greenspan was credited for turning the tech-bust into a real estate and financial boom.
Following the 2008/2009 meltdown, Greenspan morphed from hero to scapegoat similar to some of the traders at some of the reputable financial instituitions and hedgefunds that blame their fund managers for making huge losses.
Bernanke carried on the torch of fearless Keynesian Fed Presidents and made it on the cover of Time magazine within his first term.
According to Bernanke (quoted in the Washington Post), inflating stock prices is the golden grail of today's monetary policy: 'Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.'
So by inflating asset prices,the main benefacto will be the Wall Street bankers.Hence,retail investors have to bail out from mutual funds and start chasing after stocks.He has been artificially depressing interest rates takes away wealth from savers and distributes it to borrowers.
The effects:-
August 2007: Fed lowered discount rate, unemployment rate at 4.7%
December 2008: Fed reduced rates to just north of zero, unemployment rate at 7.4%.
March 2009: Fed launches QE1, unemployment rate at 8.6%.
November 2010: Fed launches QE2, unemployment rate at 9.6%.
Tracking the Dow,Friday 10/12/10.(5 market day s to Quadraple Witching)
09:30am:--Opening bull but was shortlived.
10:30am:--Pullback to find early session low.Bulls hammering the bottom.
11:30am:--A retracement to session MAV resistance.Bearish shooting star.
12:30noon:--A breakout of the morning MAV resistance line,bulls showing their spinning colours.
1:30pm:--Currently holding at bull support line.Inverted bulls.
2:30pm:--Another pullback to the bull support line,a double bottom.
3:30pm:--Another pullback to bull support line for the 3rd time.Morning star noted.
4:00pm:--Last minute spike up with a bearish hammer close.
It's time for the rollover of contracts prior to the index/options futures expiry.
Eight days before the contract expiry,the high volatility starts.The following weeks will see the bulls creeping up Tuesday's upper shadow since last Friday it was holding superbly above December month bulls pivot support.
The markets benefited from strong trade numbers in the U.S. and China and hopes Congress will extend the expiring Bush tax cuts.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

A year end scramble.

The year 2010 will be coming to an end and it is normal that most of the big funds and financial instituitions will be reviewing their portfolios.
The portfolio managers are "all trying to scramble to catch up. They have performance risk, they have bonus risk and ultimately they have job risk."
Regular investors burned by the credit crisis are finally ready to embrace this stock market rally, bond exchange-traded funds recorded their first outflow since the equity bull market began in March of 2009.The ETFs, which track Treasury, municipal and corporate bonds, posted a net outflow of $501 million in November.Regular investors have refused to jump into this equity rally headfirst and opted for the low return safety of bonds are also
reviewing their positions.
Ironically, the ETF outflows began just as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a quantitative easing plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities. Many investors feel the well-telegraphed move by Bernanke was already priced into the fixed income market and that economic improvement may mean the Fed Chief won’t even have to complete this buying program.
Tracking Friday's Dow.(10 market Days to Quadraple Witching)
09:30am:--Bearish 40.0 points opening gap down.Disappointing jobs report for November
10:30am:--After filling up the bearish opening gap,index fallen again but holding steadily at the bear support line.
11:30am:--Pullback again after earlier rebound to near morning high.
12;30noon:--Consolidation time,holding at the bear support line.A bullish hammer of the bottom noted.
1:30pm:--Rebound to MAV resistance line.Big Lots Inc.,the close-out goods retailer reported a 42% drop in net profit for its fiscal third quarter and lowered its outlook for the year.
2:30pm:--A bullish engulfing seen,improved risk appetite prompts investors to pick up more equities, small and midcap shares .
3:30pm:--A last half hour bullish spike up.Jobs report data a bit doubtful,ADB report says good earlier while the government says bad.
4:00pm:--A bearish hangman awaiting.
The first week of December ended on a very bullish note.A very long white candlestick.Any intermittent pullback is negligible unless another geo-political fear seeps in again.A very good Thanksgiving Day indeed.
Wall Street has shown its ability to hold onto gains, or quickly recover from losses this week despite Europe's debt woes, suggesting that investors are confident of a sustained rally.
When things don't fall apart on bad news, you know that the market is no longer vulnerable. The overall sentiment is pretty solid