Monday, April 5, 2010

Oil price,inflaton and interest rates.

Crude oil surged to the highest level in 17 months as growth in American jobs and service industries signaled that the economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s.
The U.S. is the world’s largest energy-consuming country. Prices surged to a record $147.27 a barrel in July 2008 as the recession worsened and demand waned. They subsequently fell to $32.40 a barrel in December 2008.
The price of oil and inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause and effect relationship. As oil prices move up or down, inflation follows in the same direction.
The impact will be greatest when a country is (a) a large-scale importer of oil and (b) has many industries that use oil as an essential input in the production process.
Of greater impact are the knock-on effects of increased costs through the supply-chain. The second-round effects on inflation are more complicated, as businesses pass through higher costs. A doubling in oil prices would have many other inflationary effects: increasing the cost of heating oil and aviation fuel, plastics, chemicals, as well as raising the material costs of all firms (which would likely be passed onto consumers).
Firstly, an increase in inflation acts to reduce the growth of real incomes putting downward pressure on consumer demand. Higher inputs costs will also squeeze company profit margins which together with a slower growth of demand will lead to cutbacks in planned investment spending.
The monetary policy authorities might respond to rising oil prices by increasing short-term interest rates which acts to dampen down spending. A rise in interest rates is by no means automatic, because the Bank of England for example takes a full range of inflation indicators into account when setting interest rates. But if policy is tightened, we would expect to see slower economic growth, a possible rise in unemployment and a diminution in the ability of workers to ask for pay increases that keep pace with inflation. Deflationary policies designed to control cost-push inflation will have the effect of reducing real national output below potential (creating a negative output gap). Indeed if a slowdown becomes a recession, then the demand for oil will decline putting downward pressure on international oil prices.
Meanwhile, Australia’s central bank again raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.25 percent and signaled further increases, dismissing warnings that higher borrowing costs are already eroding consumer spending.
The Dow Monday is 9 market days to index/options futures expiry.
Nikkei futures expiry 4 market days to go.
9:30am:--Bullish spillover open but was immediately pulled back as returning holiday participants took profits.
10:30am:--Bullish sentiment continues to find session high,bullish dragonfly doji seen.
11:30am:--Pulledback to bullpivot,bearish hangman noted.
12:30noon:--Hoovering at the bull pivot.Bearish dojis.
1:30pm:--Bearish shooting stars.
2:30pm:--After hitting the MAV support,a technical rebound,spinning indecision dojis.
3:30pm:--A graveyard doji star and another attempt to hit the MAV support line.
4:00pm:--Bullish retracement but with a hammering warning sign.
Market participants have pushed the stock market to a fresh 52-week high as a positive bias continues to permeate trade.
Energy led the commodities space and equity markets higher this session. The move higher has been attributed to better-than-expected economic data (this morning and Friday's Nonfarm payrolls). A generally positive reaction to the jobs numbers helped give the major equity averages a positive start to the session.