Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Shanghai 'bund' crash.

China’s benchmark stock index posted the biggest gains among the world’s markets from Jan. 1 to Aug. 4, more than doubling from the low in November. Shares had surged as the government unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package and new loans by banks surged to a record in the first half. The gauge remains 53 percent below the all-time high on Oct. 16, 2007.
The index has slumped this month, paring the year-to-date advance to 57 percent, after new lending in July tumbled to less than a quarter of June’s level, while losses at Yunnan Copper Industry Co. and Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. revived concern that earnings will deteriorate.
The equities rally also faltered as the securities regulator allowed initial public offerings after a nine-month moratorium.
The main catalyst for the recent plunge was the July IPO of China State Construction Engineering Corp.
“It drained liquidity from secondary markets.”
(photo :Shanghai Stock Exchange building)
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,19/08/09
Asian index futures roll-over contract start 24/8/09.Expiry:31/08/09.

9:30am:--A early 50.0 points gap-down with a small bullish gap fill.
A spillover of renewed selling pressure overseas especially Shanghai Stock Exchange.
10:30am:--The bearish opening gap-down has been fully filled.
A bullish inverted hammer on hold.The Bank of England surprised many when it revealed Wednesday that its rate-setting committee was split on how far it should increase its money supply program via asset purchases.
11:30am:--Hoovering at morning session high waiting for breakout.
Oil prices are down 1.1% to $68.45 per barrel in the first few moments of pit trading.
12:30noon:--The breakout into a bullish stance is now holding at session high with a bullish engulfing.
Investment guru Warren Buffett's prediction in a New York Times article that the U.S. economy is on a slow path to recovery now that it is out of the emergency room.
1:30pm:--Bearish hangman at new session high.
While stocks are now up in broad-based fashion, Treasuries have lost some of their initial luster.
2:30pm:--The three bearish crows are beginning to pull it down but the chances is to feed at the bullish pivot not the MAV.
The major averages continue to trade with fairly strong, broad-based gains with energy and healthcare two of the best performing sectors.
3:30pm:--The bull pivot being touched and a rebound.
There has been some "market chatter" circulating regarding the possibility of a second economic stimulus package, which some participants believe was a positive catalyst for the stock market.
4:00pm:--A final retracement to near day's high with mild profit-taking.
August candlestick status is a bullish inverted hammer to date.
Monday's pullback has been fully filled and the bulls will continue its rampage just in time for the Asian index futures roll-over to corner the shorties.
But the volume was light, even for late summer, which traders say suggests little conviction on the part of buyers. Light volume also makes stocks more volatile.