Monday, August 17, 2009

Grizzly Bears at Jackson Hole.

It's an annual event three days before the Federal Reserve meet at this mountain retreat,the grizzly bears of Jackson Hole will always ransack Wall Street to get their best piece of meal.
Comments from various policymakers at Wednesday's Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, will be crucial in highlighting divergent central bank responses to the improved global outlook, which gives trading opportunities.
Central banks, faced with different stages of economic and financial stabilisation, are not taking a uniform approach to exit strategies.Central bank response functions will be varied. The global recession did not strike all economies the same way, and this will become increasingly clear in the recovery phase.
Norway and Australia have already been hinting at raising interest rates, whereas New Zealand could still ease policy.
The Bank of England stunned markets last week by expanding its quantitative easing plan to 175 billion pounds.
The Bank of Israel has become the first central bank to announce the end of unorthodox monetary easing by ending the bond and FX buying programme over the past few weeks.
Tracking the Dow on Monday,17/08/09.(4 market days to Dow Futures Expiry)
Asian Index Futures Expire 31/08/09.Rollover contracts starts 24/08/09

9:30am:--Down goes humpty-dumpty with 150.0 points scrap.
A global selloff, which was spurred by disappointing economic growth in Japan.
10:30am:--Damage has been own,no way to fill up the opening gap-down.
The New York Manufacturing Index showed its first positive reading, which indicates expansion, since April 2008 and its best reading since November 2007.
11:30am:--A slight pre-noon retracement.
The Fed announced it has extended its Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) as part of its ongoing effort to improve credit and liquidity conditions.
12:30noon:--Failed to reach even the bear pivot and the hangman waiting.
Despite the good announcement,nothing much can lift investors spirits in this session.
1:30pm:--It's the bears meal.
Weakness is widespread.
2:30pm:--Still holding below the day's bear pivot.
Crude is trading 2.8% lower at $65.61 per barrel.
3:30pm:--Bears engulfing.
Losses remain significant.
4:00pm:--A bearish engulfing checking the spinning bulls.
The start of second half August,the beginning of Nikkei 225 futures new contract month(august),the slotting of poor Japanese economic report at the right timing with an excuse to sell the skyrocketing market which in turn helps the Dow to find a lower shadow because it has a bald shaven August opening.Goldman Sachs Japan,you're damn good.
So the Dow's candlestick to date has a long upper shadow which will be short-covered in due time.