Thursday, July 9, 2009

The Thai Kingdom

American-born King Bhumibol, 81, whom many Thais regard as semi-divine, ascended the lotus throne in 1946, when Harry Truman was in the White House and Josef Stalin ruled the former Soviet Union. He has been the lone stabilizing presence in a land that has been rocked by 15 successful or attempted coups d’etat, 16 different constitutions and 27 changes of prime minister during his reign. The stern-faced monarch with few official powers but much influence has at least twice intervened to halt bloodletting.
Street demonstrations organized by the rival factions led to the occupation of Bangkok’s two main airports in November and triggered the cancellation of an April meeting of Asian leaders -- events that brought unwelcome publicity to the Land of Smiles.
Amid the chaos, some investors see opportunity in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy behind Indonesia.
Marc Faber who manages $300 million in Asian shares at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. has been buying shares in Thai banks and food producers this year.
Swiss-born Faber first visited Thailand 36 years ago and moved his home there in 2000. Today, he lives in baronial splendor, surrounded by first editions of books such as Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, in a teak house on the banks of the Ping River just outside the 1,000-year-old walled city of Chiang Mai.
Tracking the Dow on Thursday,09/07/09.(5 market days before Dow Index Futures expiry on 17/07/09)
9:30am:A bullish 40.0 points lift-off but a spin at the upper shadow blew the lights -off.
According to the latest government statistics, 565,000 initial jobless claims were filed for the week ending July 4. That is short of the consensus estimate, which called for 603,000 claims
10:30am:--After filling the opening bulls santuary,the bears have penetrated further down.
Just hitting news wires, wholesale inventories for May decreased 0.8%, which is less than the 1.0% decrease that had been expected. Wholesale inventories for April were revised slightly higher to reflect a 1.3% decrease.
11:30am:--The morning session new low has been completed and it's time for a rebound to the MAV line.
Amid the rebound, financials have emerged to trade with the most handsome gains of any major sector; they are up 1.4%.
12:30noon:--It's consolidation time at the MAV indecision line getting ready for the 2nd session assault.(we have the shooting stars,hangmen and bears)
Crude oil prices have surrendered early gains and now trade with a 0.8% loss at $59.65 per barrel. Should the loss hold, oil will log its seventh straight loss.
1:30pm:--An opening bearish harami warning.
Part of the Dow's relative weakness stems from weakness in big pharma stocks like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 56.49, -0.59) and Merck (MRK 26.94, -1.10), which were actually leaders in the previous session.
2:30pm:--A sudden spike up retracing to the day's high(double top) with a bullish hammer.
A bull trap.Dow component Alcoa started earnings season last night by reporting a loss for the second quarter, but the shortfall wasn't as bad as what had been expected. That has helped the broader market make modest gains in the face of choppy, listless trading.
3:30pm:--Pullback to bear zone but a bullish harami checkmate the slide.
The U.S. dollar has fallen under increasingly stiff selling pressure, which has taken the Dollar Index to a 1.2% loss. The dollar's decline has provided a boon for commodity prices.
4:00pm:--A bullish harami.
There might be some good economic news Friday.(export and import price data for June ,the trade balance report for May, the preliminary consumer sentiment survey for July is due from the University of Michigan .)
Volumes have spiked up on Wednesday,the usual bullish retracement time before index expiry.
The double spinning stars are awaiting to pierce through the bear pivot.
Thursday gains were tempered by weak sales reports from retailers and evidence that the labor market is still hurting.