Thursday, July 23, 2009

Dow's lightning speed.

Driven by better-than-expected profit reports from the likes of Ford, eBay and AT&T, the Dow Jones Industrial Average leapt 188.03 points to 9069.29, surging back above 9000 for the first time since early January.
The bear rally is heading for a breakout to the upside.Investors in US stocks will soon be able to realised their return of equity investment back to their net worth and intrisic value.
I have noticed that some of the stocks of late have undergone a series of reverse share-split and thus enhancing its value again.
example:AIG previously USD1.16, FAS previously USD9.65, FAZ previously USD4.85.All these just a few weeks ago prices.Is this the hints of the pre-planned moved by Obama's economic team to somehow or rather push the Dow index back to pre-crisis level?Are they using this shadowy Dow index tool to offset the weak dollar?
So when the Dow goes higher and will crude-oil as well but the dollar will remain weak.
The USDollar is an international currency and when the dollar is weak countries would be able to purchase more quantity of oil with lesser currency...however this is only when OPEC keep the prices stable.
Crude oil is mainly traded in US dollars, and when the US dollar weakens the crude oil market participants (speculators, producers, refineries, etc.) push the price of crude higher on the expectations that oil producers are entitled to at least the same prices as before in their own currencies, after exchanging US dollars into their currency. In economics such relationships are explained by Purchasing Power Parity theory.
So in the end oil consumers will suffer with high inflation thus forcing central banks to raise interest again.
Stocks will start falling again when we see signs that the Fed grumble too much about inflation.That's the time we have to bail out from stocks completely and aim for bonds.
Tracking the Dow on Thursday,23/07/09.
9:30am:--A small bullish hammer from overnight low with no gapping play.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 totaled 554,000, which is slightly less than the 557,000 initial claims that were widely expected.
10:30am:--The bulls charges with strong spike up.
On the evening of July 14, Intel (INTC 19.22, +0.08) posted one of its best quarterly reports in years and induced buying in the broader market.
11:30am:--Morning high with a graveyard doji pullback being checkmate by the bulls.
Among equities, small-cap and mid-cap stocks are seeing some of the best gains this session.
12:30noon:--The pullback time for the 1st half session is still clinging near the high.
It will be very difficult for the index to pullback to the MAV level judging from the very big range.
1:30pm:--A bullish spike to another high with some mild profit-taking.
The major indices are taking a breather from their ascent and are now trading sideways. Gains remain impressive and widespread.
2:30pm:--The pullback is again being checked by the bulls.
Existing home sales in June increased 3.6% month-over-month to an annual rate of 4.89 million units, which is generally in-step with what was expected and marks a third straight increase.
3:30pm:--Bearish profit-taking.
Better-than-expected earnings announcements from a wide range of industry players have helped fuel broad-based buying.
4:00pm:--The closing day doji star indecision ended with a bull.
Commodities also benefited from broad-based buying, which pushed the CRB Commodity Index 1.8% higher in its best percentage gain since mid-June.
The Dow is just inches away from the 52 weeks MAV>(9,186.79)
The breakout is going to see the demise of the bear rally.
The real bulls party are about to begin.
With the US equities going back to previous years level,the Americans will be having more money to spend again and thereby boosting airline travels and tourism.The pensioners will be more happy to cheer again after all their 401k fund have diminished in value during the financial turmoil.
There are many cheap airline stocks which have been hammered to scout around like Thai Airways,Cathay Pacific,Qantas to name a few.