Saturday, December 8, 2007

Guessing Uncle Ben's rate cut.

The heats is on and that comes Tuesday's.....the FOMC meeting. Our' financial idol',none other than Ben Bernarnke-the Fed Chairman will be the attention of the world financial markets.

Just how much of Santa goodies is he going to discount for the Christmas presents?

The median estimate for Tuesday's Fed result shows a quarter-point cut to 4.25%, as expected by 87% of respondents; the remainder anticipate a half-point cut to 4%. Another quarter-point easing to 4% is expected at the Jan. 30, 2008, FOMC meeting, though estimates range from 4.25% to 3.75%.

The Dec. 7 U.S. jobs report largely narrowed the range of risks for the Fed. The labor market remains too strong to be consistent with the more dire views of the economy by some market participants. Yet the figures further confirm enough moderation in growth and labor market slack to provide the Fed some wiggle room to debate a 25- or 50-basis-point cut at Tuesday's FOMC meeting.

Let's hope that he make adjustments in the various collateral rules to loosen reserve availability further and send a signal of additional accommodation to the markets as we approach month-end.

Be on the lookout before Quadraple Witching Day....Now, with less than a week before the start of the next earnings season, analysts and investors are betting that this quarter's results could be just as bleak.
Morgan Stanley (Charts, Fortune 500) and Bear Stearns (Charts, Fortune 500), both of which are expected to post steep losses in December after warning last month they would take multi-billion dollar writedowns this quarter.Merrill Lynch (Charts, Fortune 500), the nation's largest brokerage, will not report results until January.
Only Goldman Sachs (Charts, Fortune 500) and Lehman Brothers (Charts, Fortune 500) are expected to post a profit, with their results at, or just below, where they were a year ago.
Tracking the Dow on Friday 7/12/07.
Looks like there were many long white candlestick depicting that the bulls have overwhelmed the bears.
The day ended with a short-covering bounce despite the heavy profit taking unwinding for the weekend,a usual phenomenon on nearing weekend.
A white spinning doji candlestick is seen hoovering within the upper shadow of previous day's candlestick signalling it's about to light up again.The President is passing the baton to his Top Gun and the chopper is about to lift off on a prime target mission.
Dow Futures on Monday will be bullish.