Sunday, July 11, 2010

Interest rates are rising.

Asian markets closed higher after the Bank of Korea became the fourth Asian central to hike rates in the past month, unexpectedly raising its benchmark rate from 2.0% to 2.25%. A Treasury report stopped short of saying China is a "manipulator" of its currency, the yuan, but did say the currency was undervalued.
Today, the Bank of Korea joined India, Malaysia, and Taiwan in raising their benchmark interest rate, fueling hopes the global economy is strengthening.
Bank Negara Malaysia, the Malaysian central bank, raised its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent on Thursday.
While the developed countries are keeping ultimate low interest rates, any further increase of policy rate will make Malaysia's interest rate spread widened even further and this may attract more hot money to flow into the country.
An interest rate hike also brings about the appreciation of ringgit, the Malaysian currency.
This year, the ringgit has appreciated 6.9 percent against the U.S. dollar, the highest among Asian currencies.
As an export-oriented country, the appreciation of ringgit against the U.S. dollar will slow down Malaysia's exports because the Malaysian goods and services are made relatively more expensive and less appealing.
With a ballooning expenditure and weaker fiscal revenue, the Malaysian government is also unlikely to increase public expenditure.
Tracking the dow Friday,5 market days to index/options expiry.
9:30am:--Bearish hammer opener.The early market action has caused the VIX to fall another 1.6% to 25.30.
10:30am:--Rebounded to session high,bullish hammer and a morning star.
11:30am:--A bearish graveyard doji earlier stopped the party,currently pulback to near opening bell level.bullish dragonfly doji checkmate.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time,drifting sideway near session MAV resistance.
1:30pm:--A second bullish spin sighted.Today, the Bank of Korea joined India, Malaysia, and Taiwan in raising their benchmark interest rate, fueling hopes the global economy is strengthening.
2:30pm:--Holding for the third time at MAV resistance level.Participation remains extremely light as less than a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the floor of the NYSE.
3:30pm:--A breakout with intermittent pullback.The focus will shift to Q2 earnings next week.
4:00pm:--Bullish closing at the day's high.
Investors returned from the Independence Day holiday this week in the mood to buy shares that had been battered in a two-month selloff.
The bull's strength seems to taper off as seen by the small bullish candlestick body.Friday is also the 3rd day of the ascending bull and a slight pause can also be noted by the hammer pattern.
While there haven't been many positives on the economic front, there's been some optimism that companies will still be able to continue to make profits, even with the economic strain.
Analysts currently expect year-over-year growth of 27%, according to the latest figures from Thomson Reuters. Dow components Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and GE (GE, Fortune 500) are all due next week.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

The circuit breaker tested.

An experimental circuit breaker for stock markets that was put in place after last month’s so-called flash crash kicked in for the second time on Tuesday after an erroneous trade caused a sudden plunge in the price of Citigroup shares.
Trading in the shares of Citigroup, one of the most heavily traded stocks in the United States, was paused for five minutes at 1:03 p.m. after an over-the-counter trade of about 8,821 shares was posted at a price of $3.3174, or 12.7 percent lower than the $3.80 price of the previous trade.
The trade was later canceled, according to Nancy A Condon, a spokeswoman for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which regulates brokerage firms. Even so, Citigroup shares closed 5 percent lower for the day, at $3.79.
Personally I feel that this must be an inside job.
On June 18,2009,three resolutions were passed and adopted by all common stockholders.
1.) increase in authorised shares from 15bln to 60 bln.
2.) eliminating the voting rights of all common stock holders.
3.) Authorized(But do not Require) the Board of Directors to effect a reverse stock split, at any time prior to 30 June 2010 at one of seven reverse split ratios as determined by the Board of Directors.(1 for 2)(1 for 5)(1 for 10)(1 for 15)(1 for 20)(1 for 25) OR (1-30)

Since the dateline was not complied to,they just hit the price to the point near where the Treasury has purchased at the rescue price.The administration has to date cleared 2.6 billion shares, another 5.1 billion to go.An obligation since the government officially acquired a controlling interest in Citigroup after the Treasury Department pumped $45 billion into the company through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
Treasury said Thursday it will continue to sell stock in an orderly fashion after the blackout period surrounding the company's second-quarter results ends. Those results are scheduled to be released July 16.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,02/07/10
Nikkei Futures expiry:5 market days to go.
9:30am:--Mild bullish open,markets in Europe have rebounded but a graveyard doji follow suit.
10:30am:--Bearish engulfing cum bearish hammer. Nonfarm payrolls for June fell by 125,000, which is a little sharper than the 100,000 decline that had been expected.
11:30am:--Bearish hammer.Factory orders for May fell 1.4%, which is sharper than the 0.6%.
12:30noon:--A slight retracement but bearish hangman still noticeable.Persistent selling pressure in the wake of a disappointing jobs report has the stock market on track for its ninth loss in 10 sessions.
1:30pm:--Bullish harami after finding its session low.The sideways and generally lackluster trade precedes the long, holiday weekend (U.S. markets will be closed Monday in observance of Independence Day).
2:30pm:--A retracement to the bear pivot resistance.Intermittent bearish pullback.Stocks are still stuck in range bound trade with broad-based losses.
3:30pm:--Bullish inverted hammer at the MAV resistance line.Energy commodities were especially weak.
4:00pm:--Bearish pullback to the MAV support line.An unshaven top and bottom candlestick.Pattern similar to that at 10:00am and 11:30am might occur.
This must be a premeditated planned pullback to close at the 52 weeks MAV support line.The two bearish spinning dojis are hoovering slightly above the critical MAV support line.A half yearly unwinding of positions and window dressing afterall June is the mid-year(pivot) as well.
This is also coupled with the Treasury being the main shorties all this while,a dateline by June in which they must sell their first tranche of Citigroup shares.