Sunday, July 11, 2010

Interest rates are rising.

Asian markets closed higher after the Bank of Korea became the fourth Asian central to hike rates in the past month, unexpectedly raising its benchmark rate from 2.0% to 2.25%. A Treasury report stopped short of saying China is a "manipulator" of its currency, the yuan, but did say the currency was undervalued.
Today, the Bank of Korea joined India, Malaysia, and Taiwan in raising their benchmark interest rate, fueling hopes the global economy is strengthening.
Bank Negara Malaysia, the Malaysian central bank, raised its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent on Thursday.
While the developed countries are keeping ultimate low interest rates, any further increase of policy rate will make Malaysia's interest rate spread widened even further and this may attract more hot money to flow into the country.
An interest rate hike also brings about the appreciation of ringgit, the Malaysian currency.
This year, the ringgit has appreciated 6.9 percent against the U.S. dollar, the highest among Asian currencies.
As an export-oriented country, the appreciation of ringgit against the U.S. dollar will slow down Malaysia's exports because the Malaysian goods and services are made relatively more expensive and less appealing.
With a ballooning expenditure and weaker fiscal revenue, the Malaysian government is also unlikely to increase public expenditure.
Tracking the dow Friday,5 market days to index/options expiry.
9:30am:--Bearish hammer opener.The early market action has caused the VIX to fall another 1.6% to 25.30.
10:30am:--Rebounded to session high,bullish hammer and a morning star.
11:30am:--A bearish graveyard doji earlier stopped the party,currently pulback to near opening bell level.bullish dragonfly doji checkmate.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time,drifting sideway near session MAV resistance.
1:30pm:--A second bullish spin sighted.Today, the Bank of Korea joined India, Malaysia, and Taiwan in raising their benchmark interest rate, fueling hopes the global economy is strengthening.
2:30pm:--Holding for the third time at MAV resistance level.Participation remains extremely light as less than a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the floor of the NYSE.
3:30pm:--A breakout with intermittent pullback.The focus will shift to Q2 earnings next week.
4:00pm:--Bullish closing at the day's high.
Investors returned from the Independence Day holiday this week in the mood to buy shares that had been battered in a two-month selloff.
The bull's strength seems to taper off as seen by the small bullish candlestick body.Friday is also the 3rd day of the ascending bull and a slight pause can also be noted by the hammer pattern.
While there haven't been many positives on the economic front, there's been some optimism that companies will still be able to continue to make profits, even with the economic strain.
Analysts currently expect year-over-year growth of 27%, according to the latest figures from Thomson Reuters. Dow components Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and GE (GE, Fortune 500) are all due next week.