Friday, April 8, 2011

Impact of a government shutdown.

A government shutdown is what happens when lawmakers can't agree on a budget and don't implement a continuing resolution as a stop-gap measure. A government shutdown is what happened in 1995 and was, by all accounts, disastrous.


Sectors being affected:


1) The Internal Revenue Service would suspend tax audits.


2) the Small Business Administration’s processing of loan applications would be halted


3) national parks would close.


4) suspension of loan guarantees by the Federal Housing Administrations.


5) Environmental Protection Agency reviews of construction projects.


About 800,000 government workers out of 2 million total would be affected by a shutdown, the official said. Military, law enforcement, homeland security and other personnel deemed essential would remain on duty, though their paychecks would be delayed until the government reopens.


Current spending authority for government operations is set to expire on April 8, and lawmakers remain at odds on approving a budget for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. The government has been operating on a series of temporary spending measures, and Obama has said he is opposed to another extension unless a full agreement is reached by the deadline.


While government agencies are indeed scrambling to put together lists of emergency security employees to fight potential hacker attacks from China and elsewhere, there's one problem. The federal government works at the speed of bureaucracy. Implementing lists of last-minute essential personnel to stay on staff during a shutdown requires considerable office jujitsu and cross-agency coordination.


With only five working days remaining before the potential shutdown, there is a strong likelihood of a lapse in the federal government's network security infrastructure. All federal agencies are required to have emergency plans with lists of critical-need personnel. However, these emergency plans often lie unchanged for years and are written by individuals with little knowledge of security or IT needs.


In such scenerio,the president has the power to seize temporary control of private-sector networks applying the so-called Cybersecurity Emergency Act 2009 .The bill would create a major shift of power away from users and companies to the federal government.

Dow Index Futures is 5 market days to expiry. Economic report:Wholesale earnings.

Quantitative Earnings Expiry:2months 15 market days. US Presidential Election:6 November 2012. 9:30am:--Bullish gap up.Japan worries faded.Crude oil price spike is hampering the advance.A bearish shooting star inside the candlestick body. Hourly candle:Graveyard Doji. 10:30am:--Bears negotiating at session low.Ongoing budget negotiations among lawmakers who promised to work up to their midnight deadline to avoid a government shutdown. Hourly candle:Bearish Hammer 11:30am:--Bullish spike up.Normal mid morning retracement but managed only the bear pivot resistance.Still very weak the sentiment. Hourly candle:Bullish Inverted. 12:30noon:--Hoovering near the bear pivot resistance.Hangman around. Hourly candle:Bearish Engulfing. 1:30pm:--Bears in control at new session low. Hourly candle :Bearish hammer. 2:30pm:--Oil Spikes Toward $112, Hourly Candle:Bearish Crows. 3;30pm:--Last hour short-coverings. 4:00pm:--Healthy close near the day's MAV resistance line.


The first week of April remains bullish for the Dow despite the unforseen quake jitters from Japan.

The price of oil is inching higher day by day and yet there is no price shock to equities as seen in the earlier months. Failure to reach an agreement between the Democrats and Republican on Federal Budget will cause a government shutdown so hopefully this will be avoided. We are now in a pre-election rally phase not only in the US but also in all other countries in Asia.