The Fed meets.

The Federal Reserve is increasingly confident in the economy and about to end a US$600 billion program to support it. Now for the next step - figuring out how to keep inflation from taking off.
Since late last year, the Fed has bought government bonds to keep interest rates low.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are expected to signal this week that they will allow the program to expire as scheduled in June.
The end of the bond-buying program would mean that, aside from tax cuts, almost all the extraordinary measures the government took to prop up the economy are over.
Congress is fighting over how deeply to cut federal spending, not whether to spend more for stimulus.
Since the Fed announced the plan last August, worries that the economy would fall back into recession have all but disappeared. The private sector is adding jobs, and the stock market is at its highest point since the summer of 2008.
But higher oil and food prices pose a threat. If companies are forced to raise prices quickly to make up for escalating costs, that could start a spiral of inflation. Exactly how much of a threat inflation poses to the economy right now is a matter of disagreement within the central bank.
A vocal minority, including the Fed regional chiefs in Philadelphia and Minneapolis, believe the Fed may need to raise interest rates by the end of this year to fight inflation. The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008.
And, Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, argues that the Fed has done its job and should consider halting the bond program now, not in June. "Now we at the Fed are nearing a tipping point," Fisher told reporters earlier this month, referring to inflation.
The majority - including Bernanke, vice chairwoman Janet Yellen and William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York - believe interest rates should stay low longer, and the bond-buying program should run its course.
Bernanke has predicted that the jump in oil and food prices will cause only a brief, modest increase in consumer inflation. Excluding those prices, which tend to fluctuate sharply, inflation is still low, he has argued.
Bill Gross, who manages the world's largest mutual fund at Pimco, worries that rates on Treasury bonds will rise when the Fed stops buying them. If other buyers don't step in and there's less demand for Treasury bonds, then the rates, or yields, on those bonds would rise. That would drive down prices on bonds. Rates on mortgages, corporate debt and other loans pegged to the Treasury securities would rise, too. Higher borrowing costs could slow spending by people and businesses, and slow the overall economy.
Fed officials and others believe that because the end of the program has been well telegraphed, it won't have much of an impact on bond rates. That was the case in 2010 when the Fed ended a $1.7 trillion stimulus program.
The bond-buying program was the Fed's second since the recession, and is known as "quantitative easing," or "QE2" for short. The economy would have to be in serious danger of tipping into another recession for the Fed to consider embarking on a third round.
The Fed has other tools at its disposal. Since early August, it has taken about $17 billion a month that it earns in interest from mortgage-backed securities and used it to buy bonds, a separate and smaller step than the $600 billion program.
So far this year, Bernanke has managed to forge consensus for his policies - all Fed decisions this year have been unanimous - but the deepening divides could make Bernanke's job more difficult.
The decision comes at a time when Congress and the White House are fighting over how deeply they should cut federal spending over the next decade to curb the nation's budget deficit. The deficit is on track to be a record $1.5 trillion this year, marking the third straight year over $1 trillion. It's the highest share of the total economy since World War II.
House Republicans have passed a plan that would slash spending by nearly $6 trillion over the next decade, in part by overhauling Medicare and Medicaid. President Barack Obama wants $4 trillion in spending cuts over 12 years and would raise taxes on the wealthy.
The economic benefit of another major government measure meant to stimulate the economy, a $821 billion package passed in 2009 for building roads, repairing bridges and other infrastructure projects, has already rippled through the economy.
However, the economy is still getting support from a sweeping package of tax cuts, including a reduction in the Social Security payroll tax that will give an extra $1,000 to $2,000 to most households this year.
The Fed meeting begins Tuesday. When it ends on Wednesday, Bernanke, who wants to make the Fed more of an open institution, will take an unprecedented step for a Fed chief and hold a press conference.
The press conference gives Bernanke the chance to build support for the Fed. But it could also backfire if what he says causes confusion and rattles Wall Street.
Bernanke plans to conduct the press conference once a quarter to unveil the Fed's updated economic forecasts. The Fed is expected to lower its forecast for economic growth slightly this year, bump up its inflation estimate and upgrade its outlook for jobs.
Bernanke also is likely to use the press conference to emphasize the Fed's prediction that the jump in oil and food prices will lead to only a modest and short-lived increase in consumer prices. But he'll also stress that the Fed stands ready to act if inflation shows signs of taking off.
In February 2010, Bernanke began laying out the Fed's strategy for tightening credit. But the economy weakened in the spring and continued to struggle. Bernanke did an about-face, and the Fed announced the bond program during the summer.
The program was necessary in part because the Fed's key interest rate can't be cut any more to prop up the economy. Economists predict the Fed at this week's meeting will maintain a pledge to hold the rate where it is for an "extended period."
Dropping the pledge would be a signal that the Fed would soon be taking steps to tighten credit.
"The Fed isn't prepared to do that just yet. It would be an invitation for a rate-hike party," said economist Stuart Hoffman of PNC.

Tracking the Dow,Monday 25/4/11.
New Home Sales report.
Asian Index Futures expiry:29/4/11.
9:30am:--Bearish 20.0 points gap down.Oil price marches above $110.00 per barrel,inflationary pressure concern.
10:30am:--No signs of opening gap being filled,session with many bearish hangman near the low.
11:30am:--Weak ascending bulls finding a retracement for morning session.With no negative news hitting the tapes recently, the market is riding a wave of positive earnings.
12:30noon:--Hoovering near session MAV resistance line.
1:30pm:--The MAV resistance line breakout.Bullish spike.
2:30pm:--Bearish pullback hitting the MAV support.
3:30pm:--Last hour rebound.
4:00pm:--A weak inverted bull.
Wall Street wavered, oil slipped and the U.S. dollar weakened further against the euro in thin trading on Monday as major European markets were shut for Easter and the outlook for economic growth faltered.
With European markets closed and no major U.S. economic reports on the calendar, the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that ends Wednesday will be the key event traders focus on to gauge the direction of monetary policy.

Impact of a government shutdown.

A government shutdown is what happens when lawmakers can't agree on a budget and don't implement a continuing resolution as a stop-gap measure. A government shutdown is what happened in 1995 and was, by all accounts, disastrous.

Sectors being affected:

1) The Internal Revenue Service would suspend tax audits.

2) the Small Business Administration’s processing of loan applications would be halted

3) national parks would close.

4) suspension of loan guarantees by the Federal Housing Administrations.

5) Environmental Protection Agency reviews of construction projects.

About 800,000 government workers out of 2 million total would be affected by a shutdown, the official said. Military, law enforcement, homeland security and other personnel deemed essential would remain on duty, though their paychecks would be delayed until the government reopens.

Current spending authority for government operations is set to expire on April 8, and lawmakers remain at odds on approving a budget for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. The government has been operating on a series of temporary spending measures, and Obama has said he is opposed to another extension unless a full agreement is reached by the deadline.

While government agencies are indeed scrambling to put together lists of emergency security employees to fight potential hacker attacks from China and elsewhere, there's one problem. The federal government works at the speed of bureaucracy. Implementing lists of last-minute essential personnel to stay on staff during a shutdown requires considerable office jujitsu and cross-agency coordination.

With only five working days remaining before the potential shutdown, there is a strong likelihood of a lapse in the federal government's network security infrastructure. All federal agencies are required to have emergency plans with lists of critical-need personnel. However, these emergency plans often lie unchanged for years and are written by individuals with little knowledge of security or IT needs.

In such scenerio,the president has the power to seize temporary control of private-sector networks applying the so-called Cybersecurity Emergency Act 2009 .The bill would create a major shift of power away from users and companies to the federal government.

Dow Index Futures is 5 market days to expiry. Economic report:Wholesale earnings.

Quantitative Earnings Expiry:2months 15 market days. US Presidential Election:6 November 2012. 9:30am:--Bullish gap up.Japan worries faded.Crude oil price spike is hampering the advance.A bearish shooting star inside the candlestick body. Hourly candle:Graveyard Doji. 10:30am:--Bears negotiating at session low.Ongoing budget negotiations among lawmakers who promised to work up to their midnight deadline to avoid a government shutdown. Hourly candle:Bearish Hammer 11:30am:--Bullish spike up.Normal mid morning retracement but managed only the bear pivot resistance.Still very weak the sentiment. Hourly candle:Bullish Inverted. 12:30noon:--Hoovering near the bear pivot resistance.Hangman around. Hourly candle:Bearish Engulfing. 1:30pm:--Bears in control at new session low. Hourly candle :Bearish hammer. 2:30pm:--Oil Spikes Toward $112, Hourly Candle:Bearish Crows. 3;30pm:--Last hour short-coverings. 4:00pm:--Healthy close near the day's MAV resistance line.

The first week of April remains bullish for the Dow despite the unforseen quake jitters from Japan.

The price of oil is inching higher day by day and yet there is no price shock to equities as seen in the earlier months. Failure to reach an agreement between the Democrats and Republican on Federal Budget will cause a government shutdown so hopefully this will be avoided. We are now in a pre-election rally phase not only in the US but also in all other countries in Asia.

Banco Bradesco Sa American Depo(NYSE: BBD )

Banco Bradesco S.A, was formerly known as Banco Brasileiro de Descontos S.A., was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Osasco, Brazil.It operated a network of 3,454 brancehs,30,657 ATMs,and 4,112 special banking service stations and outlets in Brazil.It also has subsidiaries in New York,London,the Cayman Islands,the Bahamas,Japan,Hong Kong,Argentina and Luxemborg. Listed at the New York stock exchange under the financial sector and is a foreign bank.

Chart shows the intraday movement on Friday.

How shall we tackle the intraday movement?

As for newcomers or novice,always wait for the first one hour trading to see the candlestick formation.

Never jump into the bandwagon based on impulse or having an overconfident euphoria.

This is our emotional weakness.Also our home computers can't beat those hedge fund companies who can execute orders at lightning speed. 9:30am-10:30am:-- The stock open with a bullish gap up and followed by a spinning top near the upper shadow.This implies that the candles light is going to be blown off.It then spike down near to the session bear pivot subsequently rebounded near the high to form a double top. Type of candlestick:-Inverted bull.

2nd Hour(10:30am-11:30am:):-- The stock is now hoovering within the bear pivot and MAV resistance,too many doji stars and bearish spin.In this hour you must plot a new session candlestick. Type formed:a graveyard doji.Should you move in yet?the answer is No.If you do have overnight position,bailout now afterall there is still time to manouvere.

3rd Hour:--(11:30am-12:30noon) Wait 5 times and see the index crawl.It opens low and bullish candle forming.Buy now.

4th Hour:(12:30noon-1:30pm) It has rebounded to session bull pivot and was hanging up there for too long.You'll noticed that there are intermittent bearish hammer.So get the hell out of it and make the profit.Do not worry about brokerage,the bottom line is you need to make yourself happy with the slightest profit.

5th hour(1:30pm-2:30pm) Opens at session high and down it goes to the MAV support line. Candle Type:Bearish Marubozu. 6th hour(2:30pm-3:30pm) candle type:A hangman.

Final hours(3:30pm-4:00pm) A bullish inverted hammer. Overall candlestick today:Bearish inverted with a long upper shadow looking to be filled again.

You'll noticed that the March candlestick formation of this stock is similar to that of Dow Jones who are now the dictator of the world's market. Every of the markets in the other parts of the world are also having a similar pattern.

So it is important to monitor the Dow's performance as well in order to get the direction.

Banco Brasileiro is now heading towards the bull resistance line.So for investment purpose can move in any time now.In the case of day traders,it'll be day to day basis.

Dow on Friday is 3 months to QE expiry,15 market days to index futures expiry. Economic Events:Motor vehicles sales,ISM Mfg Index,Construction situation The start of 2nd Quarter.

9:30am:-Bullish 40 points gap up.The US unemployment rate fell for the fourth straight month in March.

10:30am:--Opening gap being completely filled,ascending bulls lift stocks to session high.Bearish engulfing pair follows.

11:30am:--Hammer and hangman dominating at a double top. The Commerce Department reported U.S. factory orders fell in February for the first time in four months.

12:30noon:--Sign of bearish descend. 1:30pm:--There are still sign of hangman harassing the market meantime holding at the bull pivot support line. 2:30pm:--Bearish engulfing,pullback to near day's low.

3:30pm:--After completing the double bottom,bulls managed to bring it back to the MAV resistance line. 4:00pm:--Closing the day at the MAV support and resistance line.

March end month closing saw the Dow forming a bullish dragonfly doji. The bullish strength is still intact and any sign of correction wil be lingering towards March bull pivot support line. Despite the sharp rise in oil price and threats to global economic growth,investors brushed off all these concern. Stocks have made a rapid rebound from a steep, mid-March selloff triggered by Japan’s devastating earthquake and tsunami, the subsequent threat of a meltdown at damaged reactors and the outbreak of a civil war in Libya. Some strategists have said the selloff was overdone, and attention has returned to U.S. deal activity and economic data.