Tuesday, June 8, 2010

The EU contagion theme play.

In Europe, finance ministers attempted to restore market confidence by agreeing how to launch a massive anti-contagion program if necessary.
But it seems like each day brings a different country to worry about. Yesterday, it was Hungary. Today, it's Bulgaria. The EU has "some concerns" about Bulgaria, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Tuesday.
As a consequence of the Greek crisis, the euro's exchange rate at the currency markets has been falling steadily since the beginning of the year.This is threatening the monetary stability in Europe with the possibility of contagion spreading to developing countries.
The problem for Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland is that they no longer have one national currency to devaluate. An unlikely alternative could be for these countries to leave the euro zone and return to their national currencies.
The contagion risk is indeed big. According to the new misery index by the financial ratings agency Moody's, Spain faces the worst crisis. The compounded dangers of the extreme high fiscal deficit and unemployment make the Spanish economy the most fragile and susceptible to a total collapse in the industrialised world.
Tuesday Dow is 8 days to index/options May expiry.
The 7th day coincide with the eve of Nikkei index futures expiry.(short-cover)

9:30am:--Mild bullish gap-up.Fed Chairman statement,moderate recovery.
10:30am:--Opening gap being filled,to find an early low.
11:30am:--Rebound to session high,indecision doji.
12:30noon:--Usual end of morning session pullback to session bull pivot.(actual should be MAV support line)
1:30pm:--Bears spike hitting the MAV support back to near day's low.The euro fell under renewed pressure. Wary of a double-dip recession.
2:30pm:--Bullish retracement again.Fed Chairman Bernanke stated in a speech regarding unemployment,consistent on what earlier spoken at the FOMC minutes.
3:30pm:--Inverted bulls.The Dow is near the double bototm as today it has dropped below previous May low.
4:00pm:--Bullish spin.

The overall June candlestick is now a bearish inverted hammer.Upon covering back to the MAV resistance line,the bulls will be in control again quite possibly before the index futures expiry day.
Stocks ended mostly higher after a late rally Tuesday as banks and materials rebounded. But tech stocks remained under pressure as investors worried about the sector's European exposure.