Friday, February 26, 2010

Thai billion dollar man.

He is Thaksin Shinawatra the 23rd prime Minister of Thailand. Born in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand, and started his career in the police. He later became a successful telecom entrepreneur and one of the richest people in Thailand, with family's assets in Thailand, totaling 76 billion baht ($2.2 billion). In 1989 he established Shinawatra Datacom,a mobile phone network business that was to become the biggest phone operator in Thailand and make him a billionaire.
He entered politics in 1994 and founded the populist Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in 1998. He is hugely popular, particularly in the north and north-east of the country, enfranchising the rural poor, and offering them healthcare for 30 baht and low-cost loans.
On 19 September 2006 a military junta which later called itself the Council for National Security overthrew Thaksin's government in a bloodless coup while he was abroad.
In 2008 he was convicted of a conflict of interest over a land deal involving his wife. He was sentenced to two years' jail, but had fled the country before the verdict was delivered. A fugitive, he now lives in Dubai and serves, to the fury of the Thai Arbhisit government, as an economic adviser to neighbouring Cambodia.
He is best-known in Britain for his short-lived ownership of Manchester City football club.
On Friday, Thailand's Supreme Court ruled that the government could seize $1.5 billion of the fugitive politician's $2.3 billion in frozen assets after concluding he had enriched himself at the expense of the state through abuse of power and conflicts of interest when he led the country from 2001-2006. The court ruled that the remaining $800 million will stay frozen pending calculation of interest and the settling of other cases and claims against Thaksin.
His CHARGES are involving the sale of government land to his wife and why should the Arbhisit government confiscate his other assets which he already had before his foray in the government. Anyway Thaksin's supporters(the red shirt-the peasants) will be taking on the opponent(the yellow shirt-the military junta) to the street in days to come.The next big rally protest will be March 14 to condemn this Arbhisit government.This will be the real Judgement Day of the people's power.Thai stock market will crash on this day and hopefully will not drag other international peers.
The Dow Friday,26/02/10 is 15 market days to index/options expiry.
Asian market just expired today.Nikkei is 10 market days to expiry.
9:30am:--Small gap up followed by bearish tone.
10:30am:--After finding an early low,a retracement to session high with a breakout.
11:30am:--A double top with a bearish engulfing.
12:30noon:--Pullback time to MAV pivot support,fall shy of the bear pivot.
1:30pm:--Retracement to MAV resistance,a bullish inverted hammer signal.
2:30pm:--Hoovering at the bull pivot resistance.
3:30pm:--Attempt to pierce the bull pivot hampered by profit-taking bears.
4:00pm:--Last day of the month unwinding position for weekend.An unshaven bottom bear trying to hit the MAV support.
February has been a highly volatile month in view of being the pivot month of the first quater.The overall scenerio is still bullish despite all the negative economic news.It's a contrarion market.The weakness in the housing market and jobless report is the excuse to create market swing.The use of Greek fear at this month end with the intention of depressing the Asian market which is having an index/options expiry day is a very good manouvre by the hedge funds.

เพลง "ยูงทอง" (Thammasat University)

Monday, February 22, 2010

Property boom Inner Mongolia.

Ordos city is located in Inner Mongolia, China founded on February 26th 2001.The area of Ordos city can roughly be divided into a hilly area in the east, high plateaus in the west and center, sandy deserts in the north and south and the plains at the southern bank of the Yellow river. There are two large deserts within the territory of Ordos city, namely the Kubuqi Desert in the north, and the Maowusu Desert in the south.
It is extremely rich in natural resources, having one sixth of the coal reserve in China. The pillars of its economy are textile (wool), coal mining, petrochemcial, electricity generation and production of building materials.
The city is known for its lavish government projects, which erected a whole district of fancy buildings and abundant infrastructure that is seldom used by residents.Boosting the economy with corrupt stimulus plan.
Ordos together with Hohhot and Baotou which lie in the north shore of Yellow River creates the most active `Golden Triangle` in the economic development of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Rich in precious resources, Ordos becomes famous in the world. It has two world-level open-cast coal fields which are modernized and large-scaled. They are Dongsheng Coal Field and Junggar Coal Field. Ordos also has a Sulige Gas Field which is a world-level equipped natural gas field.
Ordos owns the biggest cashmere-manufacturing base in the world. `Erdos` is the famous brand of Ordos Group. As the emblematic brand in China Industry, Erdos can be listed in the front in `Chinese Most Valuable Famous Brand` with its brand value of ¥1506.7 billion.
With access to cheap money,they are creating a glut of premium office space and luxury apartments, priced at about 80 times the average income of the city's residents. Prospective middle-class homeowners, in panic-buying mode, are snapping up two properties at once, hoping to flip the second one to finance the first. Civic officials are encouraging the building boom.But most of the buildings are vacant and looks desserted,very soon they'll have the bubble burst
INNER MONGOLIA, in China's far northern territory, is the fastest growing province for insurance premium with total premium revenue topped 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) so it's time for insurance agents to ride on their bullishness.
The beginning of Dow's February Index Futures Contract.
It's the PivotDay of the 2nd part of February.
9:30am:--Opening gap up was immediately filled and hitting a low.
10:30am:--Retracement above MAV,Graveyard doji.
11:30am:--Pullback to near low,a bearish morning star.
12:30noon:--Another attempt to near low this time a real morning star.
1:30pm:--Holding at bear pivot,bullish retracement.
2:30pm:--MAV resistance breakout.We got graveyard doji and shooting star.
3:30pm:--Bearish harami engulfing.
4:00pm:--A last minute bullish short-covering signalled bulls are still on the move.
Monday's pullback was held within the candlestick body of previous day.Any further downturn will be held near the bull pivot
Fed Chairman,Bernanke is not scheduled to offer any testimonies until Wednesday in a speech about monetary policy and the state of the economy, according to the latest schedule from the House Financial Services Committee.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Gone winter bears,enter the tiger.

The chinese have just ushered the year of tiger and it will be sooner than later that China is going to revalue its yuan (renminbi) currency
The undervalued yuan has been a huge factor in the United States' ballooning trade deficit.
With China far too dependent on export-driven growth,it is now extremely vulnerable to the current steep decline in global export demand.Unless that structural imbalance is fixed,China's long-term growth prospects are as bleak as those of the United States.
In fact, the artificially cheap yuan may have actually worsened the economic downturn in China, because de-incentivized the creation of a domestic economic base. Now that overseas demand has dried up, it is left feeling the consequences of this neglect.
They are now having a property bubble and the most effective way to contain consumer price and asset inflation is to hike interest rates and also the yuan's revaluation.
China is now at the mercy of the US debt instrument.
Developing countries are the major importers and consumers of China's products and these has caused steep trade imbalances as well as job losses.
The chinese yuan is currently pegged at 6.83 to a dollar since July 2005.
The Footsie is in a bullish mode.
Barclays rose further after Abu Dhabi raised its stake in the bank to 5.2 percent by paying 1.2 billion pounds to exercise warrants it took as part of the bank's controversial emergency fundraising two years ago.
Canadian index is also bullish.
Toronto's main stock market index edged higher on Friday, marking its eighth straight rising session, as gains in energy and financial issues outweighed a slide among gold miners.
The mighty Dow Jones which got stirred in previous session given that the Fed's decision to lift the discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50% marked the first rate hike in one year, participants panicked a bit and made a knee-jerk decision to sell stocks.
Fed Chairman gave market participants a clue during his recent testimony before the House Financial Services Committee that a modest increase in the spread between the discount rate and the target federal funds rate was expected before long.
The German Dax is also bullish.
The euro zone's manufacturing sector had its best month in 2-1/2 years in February helped by German strength but the dominant service sector expanded at a slower pace than expected,.
French bulls are still weak.
Mexican bulls power.Mexico's peso hit an intraday high of 12.7885 per dollar -- its strongest since Jan. 21 -- but then pulled back past the strong support level of 12.80.Mexico will be reporting its fourth-quarter GDP on Monday.
Brazilian stocks edged lower on Friday while the currency gained ground against the U.S. dollar in a mixed reading of a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to reverse some of its monetary stimulus measures.Overall it's still in a bullish mode.
The Argentine peso closed near an eight-year low on Tuesday despite solid gains in most Latin American currencies as concerns about a new central bank administration weighed on investor sentiment.
Investors worried newly-appointed Central Bank chief Mercedes Marco del Pont may favor a weaker peso to support exporters
The overall stock market maintained its bullish stance in line with its regional peers.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Chinese New Year best wishes.



"Gong Xi Fa Chai" in Mandarin meaning Wishing you with prosperity.
"Xin Nian Ghwai Ler" translate as Happy New Year.

"Chuc Mung Nam Moi" is the vietnamese version.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Grease it or scrap it.

Global financial markets rocked and rolled due to Greece financial distress. An exchange rate depreciation will not help either as it's in a fixed exchange rate euro-zone area.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) which have rich financial strength in its coffers will need to extend a lending package to Greece,a small economy compared to Spain that need sizable funds.
If, in the unlikely event, the IMF needs to come to the simultaneous rescue of the four Euro-zone economies with the worst fiscal situations, the IMF’s ability to help other countries may start to be compromised.
Meanwhile,China is considering using the framework of the European Union (EU) or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help Greece out of its debt crisis.
Greece is seeking to raise 53 billion euros ($74 billion) in funds this year to reduce a budget deficit of almost 13 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), the biggest shortfall in the European Union. It reportedly is persuading China to buy as much as 25 billion euros of its bonds.
Conflicting reports about whether the major European nations have agreed to provide support for Greece is still vague.
The Dow Tuesday,9/02/10 is 8 market days to index futures/options expiry.
The Chinese will be leaving the ox year and ushering the year of tiger on 14/02/10.
9:30am:--Bullish 100.0 points gap up.
10:30am:--Session high with bearish hangman.
11:30am:--Pullback to session MAV support,a bullish engulfing follow suit.
12:30noon:--Spike up to new high,bearish dark clouds cover.
1:30pm:--Hanging on at session bull pivot.
2:30pm:--A double hit at the bull support pivot,bearish harami.
3:30pm:--Spinning top and the pullback.
4:00pm:--Holding above the MAV support,it's the bull in control.
February's candlestick todate is a bearish doji and it's time to be transformed into a bullish candlestick.Tuesday's market has hit the MAV resistance line forming a bullish inverted hammer.
Despite the latest artificially insemminated market turmoil,the Dow is still in its strong footing having completed a negative 158 points compared to the bulls which have positive 289 points.
This is the time where the IMF will be going around countries of the world to inspect their respective country's accounting positions and scouting for business.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

The lowest point history.

In the second half of the 20th century, it became apparent to economists that the stock market worked in cycles and could be directly associated with presidential elections. While there are other factors that determine the rise and fall of the stock market, such as war or liquidity failure, an overwhelming pattern has emerged since 1942 and the reelection of President Roosevelt.
Features
According to statistics, outside of four occurrences since 1942, the lowest point in the performance of the stock market is during the mid-term elections. Basically, 2 years after a president takes office, the economy drops.
Significance
Politicians are fully aware of the cyclical nature of presidential elections and economic downturns. Sitting presidents can take advantage of this as long as the economy has recovered during their reelection. An opponent can take advantage if the economy is still down.
Potential
Using this knowledge of past performance, it is possible for investors to know when to limit an expanse of stock purchases. Deeper analysis by Pepperdine University shows that a person should buy on October 1 of year 2 and sell on December 31 of year 4.
Considerations
The only exceptions to the 2-year rule occurred between the periods of 1949 and 1960. This period is marked by an overwhelming increase in overall American wealth that many economist point to as a result of the post-war era.
Warning
Despite the historical evidence, it is important to make proper judgments while investing in the stock market. Not every sector of the economy rises and falls at the same time, so it is uncertain as to exactly which stocks are the most profitable.
The Dow Tuesday,2/02/10 is 13 market days to ftures/options expiry.
Nikkei future expiry:12/02/10.
Chinese New Year Holiday:14/2/10 - 16/2/10
9:30am:--Spillover bulls.
10:30am:--Early pullback to find a low.
11:30am:--After finding session high,pullback to the bull pivot.
Pending home sales in December increased 1.0% month-over-month
12:30noon:--Rebounded to another high.No sign of pulling it down to MAV support line.
Treasury Secretary Geithner testified before the Senate Finance Committee this morning on the government's fiscal 2011 budget.
1:30pm:--Breaking another high,bullish engulfing.
The President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board Paul Volcker testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
2:30pm:--Slight pause to bull support pivot.
3:30pm:--Day's high being reached,spinning top.
4:00pm:--Mild profit taking back to bull pivot.
February bulls are trying to short-cover in this shorten month.The two advancing soldiers must proceed to the January's MAV resistance line in order to confirm its strength.
Signs of strength in the housing market pushed the Dow, a positive sign.
In a break from recent patterns, stocks that reported better earnings news Tuesday moved higher, instead of in a "sell the news" fashion. Risk assets found willing buyers Tuesday, as investors ran up the price of everything from gold and oil to wheat. Oil bubbled 3.8 percent higher to $77.23 per barrel on stronger economic data, a soft dollar and a sharp jump in gasoline futures.