Wednesday, January 13, 2010

A contrarion investor view.

A wealthy hedge fund investor(James S. Chanos)of Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
James S. Chanos,51, built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.
As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China.
Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.
"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."
The Dow,Wednesday(Pivot Week),2 days to index futures expiry.(Pivot day of the month)
9:30am:--About 20.0 points bullish start.
10:30am:--Opening Gap being filled completely at the early going with low and bottom hammering bulls.
11:30am:--Retracement to bull pivot,inverted hammer.
12:30noon:--A new session high,graveyard doji on check.
1:30pm:--Pullback to session bull pivot support.
2:30pm:--Inverted bulls at pivot support.
3:30pm:--Spike up to day's high.
4:00pm:--Profit taking to bull pivot support.A new high of the month was made today again.
The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the deficit last month totaled $91.85 billion, the largest December deficit on record.
The red ink is being caused by the impact a severe recession has had on government revenues and the billions of dollars being spent to stimulate the economy and stabilize the financial system.
Despite this news,the Dow is heading further north with each pullback followed by a progressive monthly high setting.The aim is the 52 weeks previous high.Not much of a problem.