Mid-term events,the pivot.

The upcoming 2010 mid-term elections will be the cause of some mild anxiety. A moderately popular Democratic President currently occupies the White House, although his popularity is not as strong as the day he was sworn in.

President Obama is reconstituting the team that helped him win the White House to counter Republican challenges in the midterm elections and recalibrate after political setbacks.

Obama has asked his former campaign manager, David Plouffe, to oversee House, Senate and governors' races to stave off a hemorrhage of seats in the fall.
The reinforcement of the White House's political operation took on urgency, when a Republican, Scott Brown, won the Massachusetts Senate seat that had been held by Edward Kennedy.
White House aides were caught off guard when it became clear that Democrats were in danger of losing the seat, and by the time alarm bells sounded from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, it was too late.
The administration is searching for ways to respond to panic among Democrats over the possible demise of his health-care bill and a political landscape being reshaped by a wave of populism.
Plouffe built a reputation in 2008 as a master of the nuts and bolts of campaigns and will assemble a team to provide unfiltered political information that serves as an early-warning system.
Republicans are giddy over President Barrack Obama´s handling of the economy and believe his economic recovery plan to be a failure. The country is now concerned whether President Obama´s economic plan - massive federal spending - will work in these economic times.
The Presidential Election cycle.
The four-year election cycle has an important impact on the stock market.
For example, the pre-election year (year three) has not
been down since 1931 (using the S&P 500 total return index), reflecting the actions of the political class to create a positive economic environment during the election year. The returns during the pre-election year are much higher.
The mid-term year contains two quarters – Q2 and Q3 – which are routinely down. Many of the biggest bear markets historically have concluded in year two in the second or third quarters.
The bear market of 2000-02, for example, concluded in October of 2002 – the mid-term year of the election cycle.Trading days 9-12 begin to exert a strong upward influence on stock prices based upon (in theory) the rising use of IRA accounts and 401K plans, both of which allow bi-monthly contributions.
In conclusion,the month of January'10 is the first bearish month.We'll have another two more bearish month play before all system go again.

The Dow on Friday is 15 days to index/options expiry.

Chinese New Year of the Tiger:14/02/10.

Nikkei futures expiry:12/02/10.

9:30am:-- Advance fourth quarter GDP reading boosted the open gap-up

10:30am:--Session high with a shooting star.Spinning top.

11:30am:--Pullback time,failure to upheld at the normal MAV at this hour.Opening gap fully filled.

12:30am:--Technical rebound at bear pivot.Inverted hammer seen.

1:30pm:--Another hourly rebound failed the MAV resistance test.Bearish harami.

2:30pm:--Hangman at session low.

3:30pm:--Day's low established.Bullish harami.

4:00pm:--Hit the bear pivot and pullback.A Friday phenomenon.

Investors have frequently acted in a sell-the-news manner this earnings season, another flood of better-than-expected earnings results has also helped from a sentiment standpoint. So the current situation is Bad news is good news.Consumer sentiment survey for January showed a slight improvement.Strength in the dollar index this session led to modestly lower commodity prices.The market seems to be finding a new low at each progression.

A traditional year end curbs.

The chinese currency,renminbi(yuan) with a portrait of Chairman Mao Tze Tung


The latest China bank lending curbs ripple through economy as well as financial markets throughout the world.
Some bankers report that they are recalling loans, while others are turning down new requests from borrowers following firm instructions from the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
The crackdown which starts in this very last month of the chinese lunar year of the "ox",must be the chinese style of year end financial closing and unwinding stocks position,so next time watchout for this communist style of book closing.We are going to usher the year of the "drunken tigers"in another three weeks time.
Banks in China typically lend at a cracking pace in the first quarter, partly so they have more assets that will yield income throughout the year and partly because they never know when the next administrative clampdown on credit might come.
As well as discouraging property lending, regulators are taking particular aim at industries that guzzle energy and belch pollution.
The Dow,,Wednesday 27/01/10 is 17market days to idnex futures expiry.
The Chinese New Year falls on 14/02/10(Year of the lame Asian tiger)

9:30am:--Bearish 50 points gap down.
10:30am:--After filling opening gap,a big pullback to session low.
11:30am:--Retracement to bear pivot resistance failed.
12:30noon:--Weak morning session holding below bear pivot.
1:30pm:--A bullish engulfing sign.
2:30pm:--Bear resistance breakout.
3:30pm:--MAV resistance breakout.
4:00pm:--Inverted bull.

Th super tri-stars dojis are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and a State of the Union address from President Obama .
The first FOMC policy statement of the new year came on the eve of a vote to put Ben Bernanke back into the seat of Fed Chairman. To little surprise the statement indicated that economic activity continues to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. The FOMC also opted to keep the federal funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25% and will maintain exceptionally low levels for an extended period of time.

The market awaiting the votes.

The current Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve. Bernanke, a Republican who was appointed by President George W. Bush in October 2005 and who had briefly served as chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers succeeded Alan Greenspan on February 1, 2006. He was nominated for a second term by President Barack Obama in 2009 as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve but faces opposition from some Senators.
The Bernankes were one of the few Jewish families living in Dillon,South Carolina.
Bernanke's current term ends on January 31, if Bernanke is not confirmed by the time his term ends, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn would take over as Chairman on at least a temporary basis.
Bernanke will likely need 60 votes in the Senate to break procedural holds.
Bernanke "played a lead role in crafting the Bush administration's economic policies, which led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression."
Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Ver., had already expressed earlier in the week that he would oppose Bernanke.He added, "People do not want another term for the man whose major job as Fed chairman was to protect the safety and soundness of our financial system but instead was asleep at the switch."
Senator Jim Bunning, R-Ken., has been one of Bernanke's most vocal critics during his tenure, and has called Bernanke's term as Fed Chairman "a failure.""Not only was Chairman Bernanke asleep at the switch leading up to the current financial crisis, but the policies he has implemented have done nothing to solve the problem," Bunning said. "He has been printing money at a break-neck pace in order to bail out his fat-cat buddies on Wall Street and he has turned the Federal Reserve in to an arm of the Treasury Department, while at the same time providing no real answers as to what his end-game plan is."
But President Obama "has a great deal of confidence in what Chairman Bernanke did to bring the economy back from the brink and continues to think that he is the best person for the job and will be confirmed by the United States Senate."

The Dow Monday,25/01/10 is 19 market days to expiry.

Main Pivot day,Wednesday03/02/10
9:30am:--Bullish 60 points gap-up.

10:30am:--Opening gap being filled half body and rebounded to near session high.

11:30am:--Opening gap fully filled with a double bottom.Existing home sales for December fell 16.7% .

12:30noon:--Retracement time.Pierced through MAV resistance.

1:30pm:--Pullback htting MAV support.

2:30pm:--A retracement to bull pivot held back by a graveyard dohi.

3:30pm:--A third attempt at day's high was met with a hangman.

4:00pm:--Pullback closing below the MAV support with bearish harami.Bearish pressure.

The morning star is a game of 50:50 chances on the outcome position of the Fed Chairman Bernanke.

If he's being booted out,the market crashes further.On the other scenerio,if he's being reinstated,rampant short-covering of positions will boost up the market.

The American-Chinese classical tango..

Wall Street suffered its worst slide of 2010 on Wednesday as investors worried that lending restrictions in China could hurt the global economic recovery. Threats of tighter monetary policy in China and increased bank regulation combined with a sell-the-news mentality to drop the stock market for its worst single-session percentage loss in nearly 12 weeks.
President Obama stirred concern for financials with the announcement that plans are being put together to ensure that no bank will own, invest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund, or proprietary trading operations unrelated to serving customers for its own profit. Further, the proposal will place broader limits on the excessive growth of the market share of liabilities at the largest financial firms. Though details of any such plan will change as it moves through the legislative process, the idea behind such a plan is a negative for big financial institutions.
The announcement seemed to exacerbate weakness in Goldman Sachs (GS 160.87, -6.92), which had already succumbed to profit-taking by participants who believed that its better-than-expected earnings of $8.20 per share had already been priced into the stock. The company's in-line revenue results also dulled the glimmer of its upside earnings surprise.
President Barack Obama's recent trip to China was treated to a lavish dinner included chicken soup with bean curd, Chinese-style beef steak, stir-fried wild rice stem and asparagus, and roast grouper, along with Chinese red and white wine which took place in Beijing at the Great Hall of the People.
This time around,Obama has his hand to be a chef of the financial market stirring further the already boiling chicken soup.Afterall it takes two to tango.

The Dow crashes on Thursday,21/01/10.

The 7th day to Asian Index futures expiry.
9:30am:--Spinning doji,the US Dollar Index gained.

10:30am:--Three powerful bears ransacking the market.

11:30am:--A deep bungee dive,finding its session bottom.

12:30noon:--Hoovering nearing session low with technical rebound.

1:30pm:--Usual time for a rebound to MAV resistance,but there's no life.

2:30pm:--Attempt to pierce the bear pivot resistance failed.

3:30pm:--Pullback again to near low.

4:00pm:--Bearish engulfing.It takes two or three bearish days to complete a pullback.

China on wednesday curbs banks lending and on the following day,President Obama follow suit.

This joint statement is a classic blessing in disguise for the Dow index to find a lower shadow.

Hence the upper shadow candlestick is now +335.40 points ahead of the bears which is a mere -53.36 points.

So the benefacto effect will be Goldman Sachs again who will be short-covering the market and later declare another round of hefty profits.Very unscathed.

PAL status quo JAL

The financial and economic crisis, which triggered a steep drop in air travel worldwide is also having a contagion effect on Philippines Airlines(PAL).

Carriers are competing for passengers with lower fares and the rise in oil prices are creating poor margins to the airlines.
PAL Holdings, Inc., (the Company), was incorporated in 1930 as “Baguio Gold Mining Company”.
On August 17, 2006, the Board of Directors (BOD) approved the acquisition of the following holding companies which collectively control 84.67% of Philippine Airlines, Inc. ( PAL); PAL Holdings, Inc., Cube Factor Holdings, Inc., Ascot Holdings, Incorporated., Sierra Holdings & Equities, Inc., Network Holdings & Equities, Inc., and Maxell Holdings Corporation.
The authorized capital stock of the Company is Peso 20 billion divided into 20 billion common shares of Peso 1 par value.
Lucio C. Tan is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer who also owns the Jollibee Fast Food franchise outlets.
On October 17, 2007, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the equity restructuring of the Company. This allowed the Company to wipe out the deficit as of March 31, 2007 amounting to P253.73 million using the Additional Paid-In Capital amounting to P4,029.3 billion subject to the condition that the remaining additional paid-in capital will not be used to wipe out losses that may be incurred in the future without prior approval of the SEC.
PAL executives are not sure if they can successfully convince their employees to accept a pay cut of at least 40 percent the way the JAL management did. JAL’s employees agreed to slash their corporate pensions in an effort to save the company from bankruptcy. About 10,700, or over 66 percent of JAL’s 16,000 workers, agreed to a reduction in their corporate pensions.
However,PAL’s employees had remained stubborn and threatened to call a strike, instead of engaging constructive discussions with management to address company issues. PAL’s management has pleaded to continue negotiations with the labor union to prevent the situation from going out of hand and enable both parties to come up with doable solutions.

The Dow,Wednesday 20/01/10.(January month contract begins)

Asian Index Futures Expiry:7 market days to go.(Volatility buy)(signs of contracts migration)
9:30am:--Unshaven bearish top slide.

10:30am:--Graveyard doji at session low,no sign of opening gap-down being filled.

11:30am:--Another session low,bulls hammering the bottom.

12:30noon:--Consolidation time,slight rebound with weak bulls inverted hammer.

1:30pm:--A double bottom,ascending soldiers.

2:30pm:--The bear pivot resistance being tested,dragonfly dojis.

3:30pm:--The bear resistance breakout.,bullish engulfing.

4:00pm:--Failed to reach the MAV resistance line.Follow up slight pull back and up north it goes.

The 7th day before the Asian index futures expiry,will see a bullish swing again as the low has been executed on the eve. Today the executioner has used the banking fears aided by China's banks lending curbs and disappointed Bank of America accounting figures to artificially create a bear trap.The lower shadow hit right on target at the bear's pivot support.

The December Producer Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month while housing starts were slightly slower.

A socialist-orientated economic policies.

In a free market, prices are set by consumers when they buy, or don't buy, a particular product. If storeowners set prices too high, even by a few cents, competitors will make a profit by undercutting them.

Whereas in a socialist economy,the economy is towards social goals rather than individual profit.
The five economic models within the rubric of socialist economics:

1) Public Enterprise Centrally Planned Economy.

-all property,key economic decisions are made centrally by the State.

2) Public Enterprise State-Managed Market Economy.

- the use of price mechanism to increase economic efficiency.

3) A mixed economy.

-where public and private ownership are mixed.

4) Public Enterprise Employee Managed Market Economies.

-publicly owned, employee-managed production units engage in free market exchange of goods and services with one another as well as with final consumers.

5) Public Enterprise Participatory Planning.

-social ownership of the means of production with allocation based on an integration of decentralized democratic planning.

Venezuela the model socialist.

In Venezuela, government inspectors accompanied by soldiers temporarily shut down dozens of retail stores on Monday in an attempt to prevent big price increases following the devaluation of the country’s currency, according to the Associated Press.

Three large stores of the Exito hypermarket chain, majority-owned by France-based Casino Guichard Perrachon SA, where shut down for 24 hours.

President Hugo Chavez says that the currency change will discourage imports of non-essential goods and encourage domestic production of items such as food.

The government had held Venezuela's currency, the bolivar, at an official rate of 2.15 to the U.S. dollar since a devaluation in March 2005. Chavez set a new two-tiered exchange rate Friday, pegging the bolivar at 2.6 to the dollar for priority goods such as food and medicine and 4.3 per dollar for imports of non-essential products such as air conditioners and electronics.

Tracking the Dow,Friday 15/1/10.Index Futures Expiry.(Pivot day of Month)
9:30am:--A bearish unshaven opener with futher piercing.

10:30am:--The slide is pretty fast and steep.Hangman presence.

11:30am:--Graveyard doji,hangman and hammer.

12:30noon:--Completing the morning session low.Bullish spinning bottom seen.

1:30pm:--Retracement but still below bear pivot.There's an inverted bullish hammer.

2:30pm:--Failed to reach bear pivot resistance,pullback.

3:30pm:--Bear resistance breached,weak bulls holding on.

4:00pm:--A short covering is imminent in a fllow through.

Finally the bears have intelligently used the pivot day of the month and happens to be Dow's December month index futures expiry to engulf the whole week profits.

Overall this month's candlestick pattern is still bullish.

Mounting losses from loans at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and a disappointing consumer sentiment reading sent investors rushing from stocks on Friday.

On Monday,The Markets will be closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day

A contrarion investor view.

A wealthy hedge fund investor(James S. Chanos)of Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

James S. Chanos,51, built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.

As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China.

Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.
"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."

The Dow,Wednesday(Pivot Week),2 days to index futures expiry.(Pivot day of the month)
9:30am:--About 20.0 points bullish start.

10:30am:--Opening Gap being filled completely at the early going with low and bottom hammering bulls.

11:30am:--Retracement to bull pivot,inverted hammer.

12:30noon:--A new session high,graveyard doji on check.

1:30pm:--Pullback to session bull pivot support.

2:30pm:--Inverted bulls at pivot support.

3:30pm:--Spike up to day's high.

4:00pm:--Profit taking to bull pivot support.A new high of the month was made today again.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the deficit last month totaled $91.85 billion, the largest December deficit on record.

The red ink is being caused by the impact a severe recession has had on government revenues and the billions of dollars being spent to stimulate the economy and stabilize the financial system.

Despite this news,the Dow is heading further north with each pullback followed by a progressive monthly high setting.The aim is the 52 weeks previous high.Not much of a problem.

Very toxic,cancerous Cadium.

Cadium(scientific symbol:-48CD),similar to the two other metals namely zinc and mercury.

Cadmium was for a long time used as pigment and for corrosion resistant plating on steel. Cadmium compounds were used to stabilize plastic. With the exception of its use in nickel-cadmium batteries, the use of cadmium is generally decreasing in all other applications. This decrease is due to the high toxicity and carcinogenicity of cadmium and the associated health and environmental concerns.

Cadmium can be found is the Vilyuy River basin in Siberia.China was the top producer of cadmium with almost one-sixth world share closely followed by South Korea and Japan.

Lately,the U.S. product safety authorities say they are launching an investigation into the presence of the toxic metal cadmium in children's jewelry imported from China after disclosure of lab tests showing that some pieces consisted primarily of the dangerous substance.

But don't worry: "American Imports, Chinese Deaths." Millions of Chinese factory workers were touching and/or inhaling carcinogens--nickel, cadmium, lead, benzene,toulene,n-hexane,mercury as they made products destined for the US markets.While American worried about lead on toys imported from China, chinese workers were dying from lead and other toxins.They were paying the real price of cheap American imports.

It's not only the toys,look at your imported chin furnitures very nice varnish isn't it?You're practically touching it everyday.

A Chinese Health Officials has estimated late in 2005,200miilion of the 700million workers are being routinely exposed to carcinogens and other toxins,everyday,six days a week.
But the American businesses should also share some blame for these fatal diseases among young workers. And, perhaps, so did U.S. consumers.

The Dow on Monday,11/01/10 is 4-market days to index futures expiry.
9:30am:--Open with a small gap-up.

Weak USD supporting commodity stocks.

10:30am:--Gap fully filled and hourly low being set.A bullish hammering of its low.Japan Airlines is likely to refuse financial aid from American airliners.

11:30am:--Retracement to bear pivot.December China's exports increased for their first time .

12:30noon:--The MAV resistance is being tested.Bullish spinning dojis at the moment.

1:30pm:--Slight pullback pre-afternoon market with a bullish engulfing back to MAV resistance.

2:30pm:--The MAV breakoutto new session high.A bearish hammer fall shy of hitting the MAV support.

3:30pm:--A final day's high,shooting star.

4:00pm:--An inverted bullish hammer at the close,a spillover bull to follow.

A healthy volume is supporting the Dow uptrend.

January's candlestick todate is still bullish and shape like a hammer.

The range is still very tight and by the pivot day of the month if this still persists,the lower candlestick shadow can easily be covered back.

So meantime a little bit of caution in case this is a bull trap.

Remarkable Vietnam.

The Stock Trading Center of Vietnam (‘STC’), located in Ho Chi Minh City, was officially inaugurated on July 20, 2000, and trading commenced on July 28, 2000. Initially, two equity issues were listed, Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Joint Stock Corporation (‘REE’) and Saigon Cable and Telecommunication Material Joint Stock Company (‘SACOM’). It is the smallest stock exchange in Southeast Asia. The Vietnam stock exchange is both operated and regulated by the State Securities Commission.
About nine out of thirteen companies have capital of VND43bn (US$2.73m) or more and have been licensed by the State Securities Commission and Ho Chi Minh City Stock Trading Center to conduct a full range of securities business including brokerage, advisory, fund management, proprietary trading and underwriting.
Saigon Securities Incorporation, Hai Phong Securities Joint Stock Company and EAB Securities Company have chartered capital ranging from VND20-22bn (US$1.27m-US$1.4m) while Mekong Securities Joint Stock Company are capitalized at VND6bn (US$0.38m). Neither company is licensed to conduct proprietary trading or underwriting.
Foreign ownership of shares in companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Trading Center is limited to 49% of the company’s issued share capital. For bonds, foreign investors can hold 100% ownership of a particular issuer’s bonds.
Foreign investors who wish to purchase shares through the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Trading Center are required to register through a custodian licensed to hold securities on behalf of foreigners – of which there are currently three; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, Deutsche Bank AG and Standard Chartered Bank. Beside these three, securities companies can play role of custodian unit to hold stocks for foreigners as well. Once registered, a Securities Transaction Code is issued to the foreign investor who may then open a Trading Account with one or more of the twelve licensed Securities Companies.
For private investors, it is necessary to fly to Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon) to open a securities account and a bank account. Foreigners are able to transfer funds out of Vietnam after fulfill tax obligations. There is no time constrain.
Vietnamese Brokerage Firms;-
HANOI:--
Vietcombank Securities Co. (VCBS),Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development Securities Co. (Agriseco),Industrial & Commercial Bank Securities Co. (IBS),Bao Viet Securities Co. (BVSC) ,Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam Securities Co. (BSC) ,Thang Long Securities Co. (TSC),Mekong Securities Co. (MSC) .
Ho Chi Minh City:--
Asia Commercial Bank Securities Co. (ACBS),Saigon Securities Incorporate (SSI)
The dow Thursday.7/01/10 is 6market days to index futures expiry.

9:30am:--A bearish gap down opener with a failed gap recovery.The dollar gained against a basket of foreign currencies.

10:30am:--Ascending soldiers filling the opening gaps completely.

11:30am:--Session high pullback now being held at the bull pivot with a dragonfly doji.

12:30noon:--Consolidation hour,bears still in control. Latest weekly initial jobless claims total, which was generally flat.

1:30pm:--Retracement to near high but strength in the dollar index weighed on commodity prices this session.

2:30pm:--Sudden spike up to new session high.It's the strength among financial issues that helped carry the broader.

3:30pm:--The high of the day after an earlier pullback to the bull pivot support line.

4:00pm:--Closes near the day's high and the dragonfly doji stars were sighted.

Thursday's equities have recovered from a sell-off at the top of the hour following a headline which detailed a warning about interest rate risks to U.S. banks.

A new high of the week was noted despite having tried to bring it down below the MAV support line.It's the 7th day before index futures expiry by having a pullback in view of the beginning being bullish.

Un-Pegging China's money,the renminbi.

Also known as the Chinese yuan,In 2005, it was officially unpegged and as of April 2009, had an exchange rate of 6.8 RMB to $1 U.S. dollar.

With the dollar depreciating,Beijing may have to shift its exchange rate tactics once again.
Even while calling for a global substitute for the dollar's reserve currency role, Beijing has essentially returned the yuan to a dollar peg, a policy it formally abandoned back in 2005 in favor of multiple foreign currency reference points. So, while Washington frets over the apparent halt in the yuan's progressive appreciation, economists say that China has actually taken measures to keep the yuan from falling against the dollar, by shifting its exchange rate regime back to tracking the dollar since the global financial meltdown began.
China sets the yuan's value based on a narrow range of fluctuation against a basket of currencies, including the dollar, euro, yen and won, and does not disclose the different weights assigned to each currency. But through some sophisticated statistical methods, the change in the weighting of each foreign currency over time can be inferred.

But, as the global financial crisis unfolded and the dollar began to rebound against the euro, Beijing started in May 2008 to move the yuan back toward giving primary weighting to the dollar, a move that prevented it from backsliding relative to the greenback. In fact, in the period from September 2008 to February 2009, Beijing's currency regime "has come full circle, virtually back to what it was in late 2005," said Frankel, who is the director of the Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Since China weathered a whopping 25.7% drop in its exports and faces the headache of 23 million unemployed migrant workers on its hands, it would have made more economic sense for Beijing to let the yuan depreciate to make its exports cheaper abroad.

But Beijing has not shied away from ruffling U.S. feathers with recent talk of replacing the dollar as the global reserve currency, forcing President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to defend the dollar. So why is it reluctant to worsen the U.S. trade imbalance by letting the yuan fall? Given that the United States is China's second-largest market, Beijing also "doesn't want the U.S. to be weaker than necessary," Fishwick noted.
There are other possibilities: Beijing wanted the "security blanket" of dollar pegging during last year's financial crisis, or its officials had actually expected the dollar to fall since the crisis started in the United States, Frankel noted.
For now, with dollar depreciation on the horizon as a consequence of Washington's profligate spending, Beijing again faces two currency options. It could let the yuan continue to shadow the dollar and thus depreciate against the rest of the world, "easing domestic monetary conditions," according to Morgan Stanley. Or it could shift the yuan away from the dollar, avoiding a further U.S. outcry. China currency watchers are keeping an eye out.

The Dow,tuesday 5/01/10 is 8 market days to expiry.(prior 7th day..lookout)

Nikkei Futures expiry:8.01.10.
9:30am:--A mild bearish open followed by immediate slide.

10:30am:--Retracement to high engulfing the opening slide.A double top having hangman and shooting star.

11:30am:--Factory orders for November were up while Pending home sales for November decreased.Hammered on news release.

12:00noon:--Usual consolidation time at session bear pivot which failed to reach the MAV resistance.

1:30pm:--Breakout to another low.Attempt to reach session MAV failed again.

2:30pm:--A new low of the day finally.Bullish harami.

3:30pm:--Breakout of the MAV resistance.

4:00om:--Bullish close despite a mild index nett loss.

Technically,Tuesday's hangman is a warning of pullback.To date candlestick is still very bullish.

Any 2nd pullback will be Tuesday's lower shadow before the Dow stage another rebound.

Leadership from financials helped pull stocks up from negative territory a few times this session.

Investors turned cautious on the second trading day of the year as a pair of economic reports gave mixed signals about how the recovery was going.

Traders will also be watching the 2 p.m. release of minutes from the Fed's last meeting.

Yemen the haven for drugs.

Yemen has a population of 20,727,063 (July 2005 est.) with its capital Sanaa.The main language is Arabic.

It mostly desert; hot and humid along west coast; temperate in western mountains affected by seasonal monsoon; extraordinarily hot, dry, harsh desert in east.
One of the poorest countries in the Arab world but reportedly has over 60 million handguns and small arms spread over a population of some 21 million people, while members of various tribes have gone upscale: they are armed with assault weapons, rocket launchers and submachine guns.(quote Yehya al-Mutawakil, a former interior minister)
Voted against Security Council resolution war against Iraq thus making the US angry.

Yemen is fast becoming a haven for al-Qaeda terrorists, along with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The Haven.

Yemen is considered today the hub for drugs trafficked to the Gulf, as drug lords today feel it is easier to send drugs to others parts of the world through Yemen than any other country.

Last week tons of "Hashish" from Afghanistan found its way into Yemen.The idea of bringing tons of it from abroad only shows the quickness of its spread. Some government officials are even blaming Iran for the spread of drugs in Yemen, as they believe that Iran is easing the way for Afghan "Heroin" and "Hashish" to enter Yemeni regional waters. Yemen as a government has always loved the idea of blaming others for the chaos that takes place inside the country.

The Dow,monday 04.01.10 is 9 market days to index futures expiry.

Nikkei Expiry;4 market days.
9:30am:--A 50.0 points gap-up with ascending bulls.

10:30am:--Shooting star,hangman but no sign of pullback to fill opening gap.

11:30am:--Another session high with sign of bearish engulfing.

12:30noon:--Consolidation hour with bearish dojis.

1:30pm:--A double top with bears still in control.

2:30pm:--Higher open,bearish engulfing.

3:30pm:--Pullback near bull pivot.

4:00pm:--Looks like profit taking on signs of rebound.

A bright new year lift-off.Overseas bulls also lend the support. The December ISM Manufacturing data shows sign of improvements while the weakening US Dollar Index providing price support in both the stock and commodities markets.

There aren't any upcoming announcements that will act as catalysts to either extend the gains or cause a pullback, so any moves in the near future will likely arise from the stock market's own volition.

Today's candlestick has an unshaven bottom so the chances of trying to find a lower shadow is also very great.

American Wisconsin Ginseng.

The chinese name for American ginseng is "Xi Yang Shen(Western Ginseng)".Scientific name is Panax Quinquefolius(Araliaceae family).It functions as an increasing resistance to environmental stresses, general tonic, stimulant, diuretic, digestive aid, anemia, diabetes, insomnia, neurasthenia, gastritis, impotence, fever, hangover, immune function, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), pseudomonas infections in cystic fibrosis, aging, stamina, blood and bleeding disorders, atherosclerosis, loss of appetite, vomiting, colitis, dysentery, cancer, insomnia, neuralgia, rheumatism, memory loss, dizziness, headaches, convulsions, and disorders of pregnancy and childbirth.

It is sweet & some bitter bitter. It helps in the body system.

US Wisconsin State Ginseng growers.
U.S. ginseng growers rely almost exclusively on sales to China, and after years of declining profits due to new competition from Canadian and Chinese farmers, those in Wisconsin are defending their brand and hoping to tap a growing Chinese middle-class market.
Wisconsin state ginseng are labeled "Huaqi Shen," or "Flower Flag Ginseng." The sole distributor in China will be Tong Ren Tang, a 360-year-old apothecary that once served China's emperors, has the exclusive right to sell 400,000 pounds of Wisconsin ginseng in its more than 1,000 stores over the next five years.

The harvest season for wild ginseng in Wisconsin is from September 1 to November 1.

Wisconsin ginseng root are a premium product and surely the chinese middle-class consumers prefer the short stubby roots native to Wisconsin and not those from Canadian ginseng roots that tend to be longer and more tubular.

In China counterfeit labelling of ginseng products are a plentiful and Wisconsin's tie up with partner Tong Ren Tang will help protect its brand so as to distinguish between the real and the counterfeiters who may supply tainted products which have high level of steroids just like in the case of chinese tea leaf .

Researchers have estimated that each ginseng plant in the wild needs to produce over 30 seeds to replace each plant harvested. Never harvest seedling (1-prong) or juvenile (2-prong) plants, or plants that are less than 5 years old with at least 4 “bud scars” on the “neck” at the top of the root. Roots from younger plants are not allowed to be exported and many ginseng buyers won't buy these small roots, so it'd best to leave these plants in the woods for future harvest. Never harvest plants before the fruit is ripe (red). The best practice is to plant the ripe berries under ¾ to 1 inch of soil. Researchers have found that planting the ripe seeds at this depth can produce up to 8 times more seedlings!

The Dow on New Year Eve is 10 market days to index /options expiry.

Nikkei futures is 5 market days to expiry.
9:30am:--Overnight high opening spinning top.

10:30am:--Bearish session low.

11:30am:--Another new low with bearish engulfing.

12:30noon:--No sign of retracement to session MAV,a danger sign.

1:30pm:--Another retracement also below session bear pivot resistance.

2:30pm:--Hoovering near low with bearish hammer.

3:30pm:--Final judgement,send it to the graveyard doji.

4:00pm:--Closing near low of the day.

The final session of 2009 ended with a big pullback close to the month's MAV support line.

December's candlestick pattern at the close is likened a spinning top.

There is a long upper shadow about +165.0 points while the lower shadow has a variant of -ve 93.98.

Expect an early week of volatility.If next week open with a bullish sentiment,expect a pullback on the 7th day before index expiry and vice-versa.There will be manipulation also before the Nikkei expiry which are also interlink to all markets.

The USD rally is also a subject of concern.