Sunday, August 31, 2008

Prices inflation.

According to some European and American analysts, nations of the world have been regrouped into a new "three-world fixture": developed countries have turned into financial powers while developing nations have become manufacturing powers and exporting powers of energy and materials resources.
Before the prices of production materials shot sky high, the opening up of the global market brought by the liberalization of international trade created an opportunity for manufacturing powers to develop further and they grew the fastest. That said, as the prices of production materials soared, the financial powers and energy- and materials-exporting powers seemed to be doing even better than manufacturing powers.
Financial powers and especially the US have a kind of currency hegemony. The US dollar is the leading currency in the world and the pricing currency for many bulk commodities such as oil. When the US dollar depreciated, the prices of such commodities went up. There is a mechanical co-relation between them.
The US is already the largest debtor nation in the world and needs to import a lot of foreign capital to keep its economy running. The depreciation of the US dollar has caused the prices of bulk commodities to rise and a tide of worldwide inflation, making the US a victim of the problem, too, though it has also lightened the debt burden on America's back.
First of all, the cost of imported energy resources and production materials keep rising while the export market contracts, prices cannot go up and profits fall, pushing some medium- and small-sized enterprises to the brink of reorientation or shutdown. Second, Transportation cost goes up as oil price rises, making it difficult for manufacturing powers far away from export markets to stay afloat as some importers choose to buy from closer manufacturers. Third, manufacturing powers are being targeted by criticism from developed countries that their growing consumption of energy resources and production materials have driven prices up worldwide, while government subsidies have kept their own energy prices relatively low.
In fact, the reason why manufacturing powers subsidize their enterprises on energy price is that energy price is a complex political and social issue. If energy prices are allowed to soar freely, ordinary manufacturers will not be able to afford it and the economy will go into recession as a result.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,29/08/08.

9:30am:--A 25.00 points gap-down.
Personal income decreased 0.7% during July, but personal spending was up 0.2% during the same month. Consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, making the figure key in assessing growth.
10:30am:--Bearish Harami.
Crude makes session highs minutes ahead of the open of pit trade at $117.88; now up $2.23 to $117.82 (COMDX)
11:30am:--Bearish Spin.
No sign of technical rebound to fill the gap.The main candlestick at this moment is a long black stick with a shaven top.
12:30pm;--Bullish engulfing.
Open a long-buy position and look to close at the morning session MAV or whichever.
1:30pm:--The shooting stars.
It's near MAV.Sell and close position.Crude continues its pullback and is now off over $2 from its highs; currently up 77 cents to $113.36
2:30pm:--Fake bulls below MAV with bearish spin.
Government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell anew Friday after big gains earlier in the week. Fannie Mae fell $1.11, or 14 percent, to $6.84, while Freddie Mac fell 77 cents, or 15 percent, to $4.51.
3:30pm:--Bearish Engulfing.
The market has no hope of any technical rebound as we are at injury time.
4:00pm:--Graveyard doji.

Wall Street's retreat following the downbeat news about consumers also comes after several days of sizable gains in stocks and on the final session before the long Labor Day weekend. Pre-holiday trading is generally light and some pullback was to be expected.
Friday's candlestick seems to have rested on the month's MAV but still in the bull county.
Can this be a fake bear?
Although many investors are fixated on consumers, Wall Street showed little reaction to the Reuters/University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment, which rose to its highest level in five months. Economists often reason that consumers who are upbeat about their prospects are more likely to spend.
As Monday is a Labour Day holiday,it will have to rely on Asian market leads overnight.