Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Recession a reality.

The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.
A weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession.It isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality.
The US economy is deepening as the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the credit rout show little sign of easing.
The whole batch of negative data to support this analysis, including the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing of late has confirmed the actual situation.
All four of these barometers "seem to have peaked around the November-December period, strongly suggesting that we are actually into the first month of a recession."
President George W Bush might announce a fiscal stimulus package as early as his annual State of the Union address later this month, Mr Paulson said it is more important to get policy right rather than announced policy changes quickly.

Tracking the Dow on Monday,7th Jan'08.A see-saw trading day with volatility.Adding to stock skittishness was word from the U.S. military that five Iranian boats harassed three U.S. naval ships in international waters Sunday.A last 30minute rebound helps Dow into the positive and there was a 'shooting star' followed by another bearish spin.

A bearish candlestick followed by a bullish spining bottom-"a morning star"There might be a technical rebound while awaiting the FOMC meeting later this month.It's going to take more than technical factors for stocks to make a sustained move higher.Fourth-quarter earnings reports, will start pouring in Wednesday with Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), and the upcoming economic news.