Monday, November 12, 2007

Rollover time for Dow Futures Expiry,market being fooled.

The Dow Jones Index Futures contract expires every third(3rd) Friday of the month.Remember this in your trading diary.During this time,security equity futures,options,treasury and interest rates option classes ceases trading.For this month will be on the 16th Friday which happens to be the middle (PIVOT) of the month.
At the beginning of the month after the announcement of Fed's rate cut,the market started to tumbled.Prior to the announcement,everyone were very bullish but the big boys have Sell-On-News.Thereafter they started to inject whatever bad-news that were in their stock-library to shoot down the market
Since this month November lies in the middle of the last quarter of the year end,it is normal for a year end window-dressing where most indices be it in the US or other parts of the world will tend to pulldown from their high to a certain Pivot point of their indices and vice-versa.

Now their action of causing panic with their cruel news has benefited them to corner cheap stocks again.A fantastic agenda so the musical chair game goes on.

The other day I was on a long position in my index futures and I was caught offguard also and is now out-of-the money.What I did on many instances is to wait past the middle of the month (Pivot Day)where the prices will normally tend to retrace again.
Tracking NIKKEI225

The Nikkei opens GAP-DOWN 206.05 points today.=15,377.37(Prev:13,583.42).It closes DOWN 386.33 points at 15,197.09.Looking at the One year chart,seems that all the bullishness have been wiped of completely.The strong Yen at 109.00/USD also affects its glitter.


Tracking SHANGHAI
"The Great Wall of China" building is temporary halted due to the onslaught of the winter seasonIt's pretty strong and resilient and will be held above the bullish pivot point.No way it can pullback to MAV. It opens GAP-DOWN 133.79 points to 5,181.75.Closes at 5,187.735 DOWN 127.805
Tracking Hang Seng Index
Opens GAP-DOWN 721.96 points to 28,061.459(Previous:28,783.41)

Closes DOWN 1,117.68 points to 27,665.73 (-3.88%)Fanstatic Swing.Wow!if I trade Index futures here on wrong side I'm goin' to lose my pants.Hong Kong is able to withstand the financial shock and able to hold above the Bull Pivot.

Tracking Bombay-SENSEX
Wow!another GAP-Down of 646.88 points to 18,412.05 (previous:19,058.93)It closes at 18,737.27 Down 321.66points.

Another emerging market of great potential.Any technical correction will be within the MAV to bull pivot zone so no fear.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Financial "Hell-o-week" replica of Halloween.

The 53-year-old Fed chief,Benarnke added that the Fed is now ``very dependent'' on economic data to prompt any shift in its stance on interest rates.

Fed officials will now need to use the minutes of their Oct. 30-31 meeting, scheduled for release Nov. 20, and speeches to ``disabuse market participants'' that a December rate cut is all but certain, said Vincent Reinhart, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and former director of the Fed's monetary affairs division.

Record high oil prices and the dollar's 8 percent decline against the currencies of major trading partners since January, according to Fed data, is underpinning inflation pressures.

Bernanke told lawmakers in Washington yesterday that officials already expect the economy to ``slow noticeably'' this quarter, and warned of ``upside risks'' to inflation. Futures traders focused on his growth comments, increasing the odds of a quarter-point cut in the benchmark rate on Dec. 11 to about 98 percent today, from 68 percent a week ago.
Major indexes ended Friday's session sharply and broadly lower amid a fresh barrage of bad news for Wall Street. New worries emerged in the credit mess as Wachovia (WB) said it will raise its loan allocation by $600 million, and British giant Barclays (BCS) refused to say if it will have a derivatives loss. The tech sector, stung by a downbeat report from Cisco (CSCO) late Wednesday, had to contend with another disappointment as Qualcomm (QCOM) cut its annual forecast.
The last half hour of sell-down and unwinding position ahead of US Veteran Day holiday on Monday is a normal phenomenon on a black Friday.At the close was a "Morning Doji star "candlestick and this is the captain of a positive move from the bottom of a downtrend.
The Dow on Friday has finally touched the main Pivot point of 13,103.40 for the year with a close of 13,042.74.Above the main pivot is the bullish zone while below it will be in the bear county.
The dow is now at a critical border line of the moving average.The left shoulder and the head is beautifully completed on Friday so the next destination will be forming the head.Next week betting on Fed's rate will possibly help the chart to form the right shoulder before the real bubble burst will materialised.