Sunday, June 26, 2011

Brazil,world largest emerging equity market.

The Big Emerging Market (BEM) economies are Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.
Newly industrialized countries are emerging markets whose economies have not yet reached first world status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their developing counterparts.
Emerging markets are nations with social or business activity in the process of rapid growth and industrialization.
So Brazil got its exclusive status due to heavy lifting comes from state-run oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras according to a report released by Citigroup.
"The recent rise in Petrobras ... has been key to the surge in Brazil's overall weight," said Citigroup analysts Geoffrey Dennis and Jason Press in the report.
Bovespa's recent gains have been enough to outperform the MSCI Global Emerging Market index and bring Brazil's weighting to 14.95% of the index. That surpasses China's weight of 14.15% and Korea's contribution of 13.69%.
Rounding out the top 10 emerging markets by weight are Taiwan, Russia, India, South Africa, Mexico, Malaysia, and Israel.
Brazil is also now the 10th largest market in the world, as measured by the MSCI All Country World index, with a free float market capitalization of $509.1 billion.
The U.S. market is the largest, coming in with a free float market cap of $12.57 trillion.
Brazil's position as the top emerging market isn't guaranteed to last since market caps ebb and flow, which is why one analyst said investors should included factors such as economic fundamentals and regulatory issues as part of an evaluation of potential investments.
But one thing has to bear in mind for investors is that particular country corporate management, issue of a lack of personal freedom for individuals and government stability can bring a lot of influence to the status.
In fact Brazil could be a new economic power after China due their vast natural and human resources. In less than a decade the country already has thousands of multi-millionaires.
Brazil is best known for its production of agricultural commodities — first coffee ... then sugar ... then soybeans ... and, most recently, ethanol.
But Brazil is also among the leading exporters of aircraft ... mineral ores ... metals and steel.
Brazil makes more automobiles than the U.K., Italy, Mexico or India ... and it is the world's largest maker of cars with flex engines (that can run on either gasoline or ethanol).
China's world's largest cellular-services provider,China Mobile Ltd helped secure their ranking status.
Tracking the Dow:24/06/11.(4 market days to ending of Quantitative Easing)
Economic events:Durable goods order,GDP,Corporate Profits.
Asian Index Futures Expiry:4 market day to go.Next week rollover contracts volatility.


09:30am:--Bearish 20.0 points gap down.
10:30am:--Session low,technical rebound.
11:30am:--Hoovering near the resistance line. resistance.Shooting stars.
12:30noon:--Another shooting stars at the MAV resistance.
1:30pm:--A second shooting stars at the resistance line.
2:30pm:--Bearish pivot support line to be tested.
3:30pm:--Bearish breakout.Hammering to find the day's low.
4:00pm:--A small dragonfly doji with techical rebound insight.
***From the chart,you'll noticed that the previous day's last hour of trading has a clear reflection of what will happened the following day's market.The market makers have set up a bull trap on Thursday.The markets around the world are manipulated,trust yourself with your own trading inventions.Do not take any chances with those strong arm tactics.Follow the path of the light.

A week of Eurozone financial instability and Moody's warning created the spark to depress the market.
The Dow is pricing in the Fed's ending of Quantitative Easing program.The bears are having a hayday right till the end of this June month.
Friday's bears have covered the lower shadow of previous day but still incomplete.
Look forward to a new 3rd quarter,a new beginning and move in fast.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

RenRen below IPO offer price.


"RenRen" in mandarin means every people.
Renren Inc,is listed under Technology sector in the American Depository. It was an Internet Information Providers.
Renren Inc. operates a social networking Internet platform in China. Its platform enables users to connect and communicate with each other; share information and user-generated content; play online games; listen to music; and shop for deals. Other social commerce site; Nuomi.com, a social Q&A Website focused on the auto industry; Game.renren.com, an online games center;and Jingwei.com, a professional and business SNS Website.
It also develops and operates Web-based games.
The company was formerly known as Oak Pacific Interactive and changed its name to Renren Inc. in December 2010. The company was founded in 2005 registered as xionei.com and is headquartered at Jing An Center in Beijing, China.
The company's founder and chairman CEO is Mr. Joseph Chen ,aged 41.
On the 4th of May 2011,the company announced that it has priced its initial public offering of 53,100,000 American depositary shares ("ADSs"), each representing three Class A ordinary shares of the Company, at US$14.00 per ADS, with a total offering size of US$743.4 million, assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option by the underwriters. The ADSs will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on May 4, 2011 under the symbol "RENN."
Upon listing its shares price surged 28.6 percent in their debut.
Renren's offering comes amid a grab for hot social media companies, including Twitter, Facebook, Groupon and Zynga, which are propped up by multibillion-dollar valuations of their shares trading on the secondary markets.
High valuations for other social networking companies, combined with the fact China is the world's biggest Internet market, were expected to help Renren attract investors.
Investors in Renren seemed to brush aside recent concerns dogging the company, including questions about its internal financial controls, the resignation of its audit committee chairman and the tight control and censorship of the Chinese government. If Renren fails to comply with Chinese government Internet regulations, its websites could be shut down, according to the risk factors section of its prospectus.
According to the revised filing, Renren's monthly unique log-in user base grew by only 5 million, or 19 percent, in the first quarter of 2011 -- not the 7 million, or 29 percent, it previously reported.Could this be the reason for the dismal performance of its share prices due to misleading reporting for the sake of jacking up the IPO price?
Renren had net revenue of $76.5 million in 2010 and about 117 million activated users as of March 31, 2011. It had about 31 million monthly unique log-in users in March 2011.
Last Friday's closing price is a bearish spinning doji.The bears are in full control of this counter and any sign of retracement will be met with hammering.
For the month of June,it's already a confirm bear so no point buying at the moment.Maybe towards the end of the month when the whole scenerio stabilizes,one can move in.
Better be safe than be sorry.Sometimes when it's cheap we tend to buy not being aware of the timing,but when the price goes down further we might got panic and will liquidate the moment there's slight premium from our cost or maybe cut-loss.There is no difference whether one buy at a lower or higher price if the timing is right.
Triple Witching Day of the Dow on 17/6/11.
Economic Calender:Consumer Sentiment,Leading Indicators.

Asian markets Index Future Expiry:9 market days to go.

9:30am:--Very bullish 80.0 points opening gap up.
10:30am:--Hourly high,bearish pullback with shooting stars.
11:30am:--Bearish Harami.
12:30noon:--Triple witching stars near the morning session MAV support line.
1:30pm:--Pullback to near days low,a morning star in the offing.
2:30pm:--MAV resistance line breakout.A sudden unhealthy spike touch the bull pivot resistance to be met with a bearish engulfing.
3:30pm:--A double intraday support at the bearish pivot support line.
4:00pm:--A bearish techincal weekend pullback.
A disastrous Triple Witching month for the Dow Index.I presume this must be the half yearly window-dressing to spruce up new positions for the next onslaught.
There were two bullish inverted hammer short covering Wednesday's giant pullback.
Moody's again warned that it may downgrade its ratings on France's three largest banks because of their exposure to the Greek economy.Hopefully the market will go against the mood.
Another event which ought to be noted is during mid-September when the presidential bankers held their annual retreat at Jacksonville.From past records,a week before this meeting a market crash is imminent contrary to the anniversary of the October crash.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Oil-rich South China Sea.

Tensions between China and Vietnam escalated over the weekend as each nation accused the other of violating its sovereignty in the oil-rich South China Sea.

PetroVietnam, the state-owned oil and gas monopoly, said on Sunday that China had sabotaged Vietnamese oil exploration vessels, the latest accusation between the countries over the disputed waters.

"When we conduct seismic survey and drilling operations, they [China] have aeroplanes flying over to survey our activities, they harass us with their vessels, and in extreme cases they cut our [exploration] cables," said Do Van Hau, a senior PetroVietnam official.

The renewed tensions come as Liang Guanglie, the Chinese defence minister, and Robert Gates, his US counterpart, prepare to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue, a high-profile annual Asia defence forum in Singapore next weekend. Liang's appearance will mark the first time a Chinese defence minister has participated in the meeting.

The Vietnamese harassment claims will put the South China Sea issue back in focus ahead of the regional security meeting, which in recent years has increasingly focused on Chinese maritime behaviour in the disputed waters. South-east Asian countries are concerned about what they perceive to be Beijing's increasingly assertive behaviour in regional waters.

The rising tensions have also attracted the attention of Washington. Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, angered Beijing last July by insisting that the South China Sea was of strategic importance to the US and offering to act as a mediator.

In addition to China and Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan all claim part or all of the South China Sea, which is believed to contain vast oil and gas reserves and incorporates key trade routes and abundant fish stocks.

On Sunday, PetroVietnam said the Chinese boats that approached one of its vessels on Thursday had deliberately cut an exploration cable, which had been submerged to 30 metres to protect it from oncoming ships.

PetroVietnam is working with a number of large international oil companies, including ExxonMobil and Chevron, to explore and develop oil and gas assets in South China Sea waters claimed by Vietnam. Hau said that this latest incident "will impact on the attitudes of foreign investors".

Carl Thayer, an expert on the South China Sea at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra, said that this latest incident represented an escalation in Chinese aggression toward Vietnam.

"China is brazenly asserting its sovereignty by such actions and it has the preponderance of vessels to enforce this," he said.

Just before 6am on Thursday, three Chinese patrol ships rushed the Binh Minh 2, a seismic survey ship owned by PetroVietnam, damaging a number of cables, according to Vietnam's foreign ministry. The oil exploration vessel had detected the Chinese ships approaching on radar about an hour earlier without warning.

The encounter took place 120 nautical miles off the coast of Phu Yen province in south-central Vietnam, in waters that are claimed by both China and Vietnam.

China routinely detains Vietnamese fisherman who are plying their trade in disputed waters but this is the first time in recent years that Chinese patrol boats have clashed with a Vietnamese oil exploration vessel. A Philippines-licensed oil survey ship suffered a similar confrontation with Chinese patrol vessels in March.

The clash comes just a week after China and the Philippines pledged "responsible behaviour" in the disputed areas and repeated their commitment to a peaceful resolution of conflicting territorial claims. During a visit of Liang Guanglie, China's minister of defence, to Manila last Monday, officials from both governments pledged to avoid unilateral moves which could raise tension.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino said after the visit incidents in disputed areas could trigger a regional arms race, and force the Philippines to strengthen its military capabilities.

Security experts have said that such an arms race is under way already. Several south-east Asian countries are beefing up their air and sea defences - Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand have all acquired or placed orders for frigates, fighter aircraft and submarines.

Neither the foreign ministry nor the defence ministry in China responded to requests for comment.-by Ben Bland, Kathrin Hille
The Dow is 12 market days to Quadraple Witching.(Half yearly window dressing)
Economic news:Motor vehicle sales,ADP employment report,ISM manufaturing Index & Construction spending.
Quantitative Easing ceased 30/6/11.
9:30am:--The mid-week(pivot) will always have a high degree of pullback or retracement.A bearish unshaven top opening for the start of a half yearly witching closing month.
10:30am:--Bears still in control at first hourly low.
Weak private sector job growth numbers are in the news.
11:30am:--A slight retracement but a bearish harami pair warning.There were concern of May figures which will be released by the government.
12:30noon:--A new morning low.Hammering again.Payrolls firm ADP reported non-farm private sector employs 38,000 jobs in May which was below consensus.
1:30pm:--Consolidating near the low.Bearish hammer.
2:30pm:--Dark clouds hanging near session low.
3:30pm:--Aggressive bears in control for the day.Weak economic data is the theme play today.
4:00pm:--A mild technical rebound at the close.
There were hints that the Labour Department is expected to report on Friday that the May unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 9.0 percent from April.
Weak economic data casted more doubts to market players today but this is an overdone scenerio.
The month of May candle(typo error on chart,not June) has a two way swing.Candlestick at the beginning of first day of June has completed its mission of covering the lower shadow.Look forward to another short-covering when the bulls take to the street.