Sunday, August 29, 2010

Annual mountainside conference.

It has been an annual affairs that Central bank officials from more than 35 countries usually travel to the Jackson Lake Lodge, elevation about 6,900 feet (2,103 meters), to mingle with leading monetary policy makers and thinkers.
A week prior to this grand event,the US market will normally crash and this time around Asian markets defy this American tricks and go against the trend.
Between debates over new research and crisis management under chandeliers, attendees take hiking and rafting excursions in Grand Teton National Park.
This year's gathering centers on the theme, "Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead." Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet are the focussing speakers.
Three key crisis management approach by the Federal Reserve:-
1) substantial easing of monetary policy despite inflationary pressure.
2) Offer liquidity to support financial markets through collateralized lending programs.
3) regulators to monitor the health of individual financial instituitions and developing new regulations
Tracking the Dow,Friday.Asian index futures contracts rollover.
9:30am:--A bullish 50.0 points gap up.The Commerce Department made a smaller-than-expected cut in its estimate of second-quarter economic growth.
10:30am:--Earlier pullback to find an early low has now retraced to near session high. Second-quarter growth in the U.S. economy comes in at 1.6% -- not as bad as economists and investors had feared.
11:30am:--A new session high,spinning top.Consumer confidence rises slightly in August but still remains weak.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time.Bearish hammer.
1:30pm:--After pulling back to bull support pivot,three ascending soldiers seen.
2:30pm:--Bulls bringing it higher.Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the central bank would not sit idly and let the U.S. economy sink into a period of deflation.
3:30pm:--After digesting the Fed's news,a slight pullback but the bulls are still supporting it.
4:00pm:--A new high of the day closing.Consumer confidence rises slightly in August but still remains weak.
Looks like every quarter there'll be threatening news so that a trough formation depicting the head and shoulder pattern can be materialised.
The beginning of July was a bull party and towards the end of the third month comes the shorties.
Friday is a bullish spin and a rebound is on the card aided by the Fed who has just open his mouth.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Reducing treasury debt holding.

China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt for a second straight month in June while the holdings of Japan and Britain rose.
China's holdings fell by $24 billion to $843.7 billion, a decline of 2.7 percent, the Treasury Department said Monday in a monthly report on debt holdings.
Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities rose $45.6 billion to a total of $4 trillion, an increase of 1.2 percent.
A drop in foreign demand would lead to higher interest rates in the United States. The yield on Treasuries rises when fewer people invest in them
It would start with the U.S. government paying more interest on its $13.3 trillion national debt and then ripple through the economy. Consumer loans such as home mortgages and auto loans track the yields on Treasurys, so they could rise, too.
China is the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities. The $24 billion decline in China's holdings in June followed a $32.5 billion drop in May. China's holdings had hit a high for this year of $900.2 billion in April.
There are concerns that China could influence U.S. interest rates by rapidly selling off its holdings of U.S. debt. That could lead others to dump their holdings and result in a spike in interest rates.
The Dow Friday is Index/Options Expiry Day.
9:30am:--Bearish 20.0 points gap down.Economic jitters.
10:30am:--Shooting star near hourly bottom.Weak data on the jobs market and regional manufacturing reignited fears about the economic recovery.
11:30am:--Bearish engulfing.The market had focused too much on short-term jobs numbers.
12:30noon:--Bullish engulfing.The usual mid-afternoon technical rebound.
1:30pm:--Inverted hammer.
2:30pm:--Bullish engulfing near the MAV resistance line.
3:30pm:--Bullish inverted hammer holding above the MAV support.M&A news as an excuse for late-day buying.
4:00pm:--A small inverted bull.
A correction on Index/Options futures expiry day.The pullback tapers off at the low of the month. The overall mood of a market is worried about a weakening economy. There are no economic releases scheduled for Friday and the earnings calendar is relatively light.Earlier on the beginning of the month,despite all the negative economic news,the Dow still maintain its push into the positive territory.After the FOMC announcement,the slide begins.This is also a blessing in disguise for the Fed Reserve to unload their Citigroup shares in a staggering manner.They still have a lot to go and will pump in more bad news as they have their deadline to meet.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Without wheat no bread.

Wheat is the dominant grain of world commerce. It is easily transported and stored and it is used to produce a large variety of foods that include many kinds and types of breads, cakes, noodles, crackers, breakfast foods, biscuits, cookies, and confectionary items.
Wheat is the staple food of millions of people. It is also an important part of the daily diet of many millions more. Only rice challenges wheat for the title of most important food grain in the world.
Approximately two-thirds of the wheat produced in the world is used for human food and about one-sixth is used for livestock feed. Industrial uses, seed requirements, and post-harvest losses account for the remaining withdrawals from the world wheat granaries.
Bread is a major commodity in the world. Millions of loaves are produced in automated bakeries every day.The people who are hurt most by rising food prices are the world's poorest, who spend a large portion of their income on basic food. In poorer countries where labour is cheap and packaging minimal, the price of bread is mostly the price of wheat. That is why driving prices up unnecessarily can really hurt the poor. Fears of a shortage can by themselves create shortage, as countries and individuals buy more than they need and keep it for themselves.
Top wheat producers:--
China … 96.2 million tonnes (15.4% of global wheat production)
India … 72 million (11.5%)
United States … 57.1 million (9.1%)
Russia … 45.5 million (7.3%)
France … 36.9 million (5.9%)
Canada … 25.5 million (4.1%)
Australia … 24.1 million (3.8%)
Germany … 23.6 million (3.8%)
Pakistan … 21.6 million (3.4%)
Turkey … 21 million (3.4%)

Top wheat exporters:--
United States … 31.6 million tonnes (29.9% of wheat exports from top 10 exporting countries)
Australia … 18.5 million (17.5%)
Canada … 15.1 million (14.3%)
France … 14.9 million (14.1%)
Argentina … 10 million (9.5%)
Russia … 4.7 million (4.5%)
Germany … 3.9 million (3.7%)
United Kingdom … 2.5 million (2.4%)
Kazakhstan … 2.4 million (2.3%)
India … 2 million (1.9%)

Top wheat importers:--
China … 7.2 million tonnes (14.6% of wheat imports from top 10 importing countries)
Japan … 5.5 million (11.2%)
Italy … 6.5 million (13.2%)
Algeria … 5 million (10.1%)
Brazil … 4.8 million (9.7%)
Indonesia … 4.5 million (9.1%)
Spain … 4.4 million (8.9%)
Egypt … 4.4 million (8.9%)
Mexico … 3.6 million (7.3%)
South Korea … 3.4 million (6.9%)
The Dow on Friday is 5 market days to index/options futures expiry.

9:30am:--A weak bull opener. The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in July
10:30am:--Pulback from high,bearish hammer.Retail stocks fell.
11:30am:--Bearish hangman.
12:30noon:--After settling with a morning low,stocks have rebounded piercing through the MAV resistance line.Helped by strength in Bank of America Corp. and recently down-trodden Hewlett-Packard Co.'s 1:30pm:--Bearish candlestick at the high for second time.Consumer sentiment ticks up in August.
2:30pm:--Pullback to MAV support line,a hangman noticeable. Mixed economic data did little to convince investors of the recovery's strength.
3:30pm:--Attempteed rebound failed,a bearish hammer followed.
4:00pm:--Breakaway bear,gap down.Many traders are on vacation or out of the market because of the uncertainty. That helped send stocks fluctuating Friday before they finally closed lower with low volume turnover.
Four straight days of losses to the Dow Index.Additional signs that the strength of the global recovery is waning sparked selling pressure, resulting in sharp losses for the major indices.
Overseas data that supported the notion of a slowdown in the global recovery weighed on U.S. stocks. China reported weaker-than-expected retail sales and the Bank of England lowered its economic outlook.
Friday's bearish spinning doji is holding tightly within previous day's candle's lower shadow.There are chances that short-covering of positions to occur before the index/options expiry day.

Friday, August 6, 2010

China and Myanmar junta dam project.

The Shweli dam is China's first build-operate-transfer hydropower project with Myanmar's military government, which crushed the biggest pro-democracy protests in nearly 20 years.
Under the agreement with Myanmar's Electric Power Ministry, China's Yunnan Joint Power Development Co are to operate the power station for 40 years.
Chinese companies would also receive 80 percent of the revenue generated.
Shweli 1, being built in the ethnic Palaung village of Man Tat near the Chinese border, is the first of a string of hydro projects under construction largely for the export of power to China.
The report cited documents from the Electric Power Ministry showing that electricity from the project would also be transmitted to military factories and mining operations within Myanmar.
China, one of Myanmar's few allies and major trading partners, has been under pressure to use its influence to convince the junta to negotiate with pro-democracy activists.
Beijing has called for restraint, but opposes U.N. sanctions against Myanmar and is loath to compromise its interests there, which aside from power generation include timber and natural gas.
Suspension bridge over the Shweli River built by 209th Engineers.
Special Force Burma.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,06/08/10.(10 market days to Index/options Expiry)
3 market days to start of Moslem Ramadhan,fasting month.
9:30am:--A bearish 50.0 points gap down. Nonfarm payrolls for July fell 131,000, which is far worse than the decline of 87,000 that had been expected.
10:30am:--A technical rebound to fill the opening gap but managed half candle's body only,with bearish hammer.
11:30am:--The morning session bottom was established.The unemployment rate remained at 9.5% .
12:30noon:--Hoovering near morning session lower,double bottom with indecision doji spin.
1:30pm:--Bearish inverted hammer.Stocks remain under stiff pressure.
2:30pm:--A technical rebound is now at the bear resistance pivot.Usually at this time there'll be some Federal news.Retail investors remain cautious about getting back into the stock market.
3:30pm:--The MAV resistance line being pierced through.Bullish harami.
4:00pm:--A bullish engulfing closing.Trade on Friday was mostly dictated by the government's official monthly jobs report.
It's the usual gimmicks of wiping off the weeks gain taking advantange of the negative economic news mostly occuring during the first week of the month.
Despite Friday's negative closing,the Dow is holding on at the bullish zone,quite near to penetrating the bull pivot resistance line.
There'll be another attempt to find a new index high for the month.
Friday's candle's long lower shadow is also a bit of a concern.