China increases US treasury holdings

China increased its holdings of US treasury securities by $65.9 billion in October, consolidating its place as the No 1 holder of American debt, according to the Treasury's latest report on international capital flows.

The continual increases in US debt holdings in recent months have triggered fierce domestic debate, as the country has channeled almost a third of its $2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves into US treasury securities.

With US treasuries recently gaining investor favor, their yields have been on the decline; but in the long term, they are still a relatively safe investment for China.

Tracking the Dow on Monday,22/12/08

9:30am:--A mild bullish open with a hangman.

There is no economic data scheduled for release today.

10:30am:--A rebound to session MAV.

The overall mood this morning has been generally pessimistic. Toyota Motors (TM) warned it expects to post a loss of approximately $1.68 billion in its fiscal year through March,first ever.

11:30am:--Bearish hangman warning.

Many developers are warning that office complexes, hotels, shopping centers, and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies.

12:30pm:--Bullish hammer.

Stocks continue to chop along in negative territory. Hoovering at session low for second time.

1:30pm:--Attempt to rebound to MAV has fall short with another hangman.

President-elect Obama continues to target job creation as a primary goal of the new administration. Creating millions of jobs will come with a heavy price tag, however. Some expect the cost could reach up to $1 trillion.

2:30pm:--Hangman & bullish hammer at session new low.

Stocks briefly pulled up from their session lows, but have succumbed to further selling pressure. This session's weakness has impacted a wide range of stocks, though by varying degree.

3:30pm:--The day's low with a morning star doji.

Stocks spike up.Persistently weak economic conditions prompted the International Monetary Fund to indicate it may cut its economic forecast. The IMF also indicated that a lack of fiscal stimulus could worsen 2009.

4:00pm:--A breakaway bull.

U.S. stocks closed lower in light trading Monday afternoon at the start of a holiday-shortened week.

U.S. retail stocks struggled as investors fretted over fears the Christmas shopping season would be the worst for nearly 40 years, while auto makers fell on concerns the U.S. government bailout would leave GM shareholders out in the cold.

Overall the December month's candlestick is still in a bearish spin.

Avoiding the Ponzi Scam.

1) Make sure your adviser is legit.
Check with national organizations that issue credentials. They include the National Association of Personal Financial Advisers, the Financial Planning Association, and the Certified Financial Board of Standards. Each offers a searchable database with contact information for planners in each state. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants has a list of CPAs who've earned the personal financial specialist designation.
2) Dig deep.
Find out how long the adviser has been in the business. Check with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
3) Understand the difference between a manager and a custodian.
The manager of assets executes those transactions.. A custodian is in possession of your investment account and issues periodic statements of transactions.
4) Be skeptical of pitches for exotic or obscure products.
"Only invest in transparent assets. We don't invest in anything we can't turn to cash in three days or less, which limits us to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds." A hedge fund, which isn't required to disclose its holdings, is an example of a nontransparent investment. Also, be especially wary if your adviser downplays or denies risk.
5) Be especially vigilant if you're nearing or in retirement.
Bogus operators sometimes con older investors through free-lunch seminars that are followed by calls from salespeople a few days later (a common recommendation is to liquidate securities and use the proceeds to buy indexed or variable annuities).If someone promises an investment return that is unnaturally high or steady, the warning alarm should start sounding.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,19/12/08
Quadaraple Witching Day.
9:30am:--Bullish 100.00 points gap-up with a morning star doji.
Dow Jones has reported that the White House will give automakers $13.4 billion in funding from the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). An additional $4.0 billion will be made available in February.
10:30am:--Early session high with bearish spin.
News of the bailout plan has overshadowed word that Standard & Poor's downgraded the ratings and outlooks of several financial firms, including, but not limited to, Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC).
11:30am:--Bearish spin steep downward spike.
General Motors says Administration's actions helps to preserve many jobs, and supports the continued operation of GM and the many suppliers (GM) 4.28 +0.62 Fitch has downgraded the Issuer Default Rating of General Motors to 'C', indicating that default is imminent.
The threat of a bankruptcy remains, given the terms of the federal assistance, and the maturity.
12:30pm:--Bullish gap-up being covered back fully followed by technical rebound at the bearish low.
Chevron announces it has been awarded a master contract by the U.S. Department of Energy (CVX) 73.04 -0.01.To reduce energy and water consumption and increase the use of renewable energy at agency facilities.
1:30pm:--Technical rebound failed to smell the MAV,lack of bullish momentum.
Ford reminded investors that it is in a different position than competitors and is not facing a near-term liquidity issue. Ford also stated it is not seeking short-term financial assistance from the government.
2:30pm:--Another near session low with technical rebound failed to reach MAV.
December stock options expire at the end of this session, which makes it likely that volume will be higher across the major indices. Option expiration could also bring about added volatility.
3:30pm:--Bearish morning star.
Moody's puts ratings of Bank Of America, National Association (Aaa Deposits) on review for downgrade (BAC) 13.85 -0.11
4:00pm:--Bearish unwinding of position overuling the attempted spike up.
Events of interest for the week of, December 22nd - 26th, include: Monday: No events/conferences of note... Tuesday: GW Special Shareholders Meeting; PNC Special Shareholders Meeting; WTBA Shareholders Meeting... Wednesday: Financial future & options and equity markets close early for the Christmas holiday (13:00 ET)... Thursday: Equity and bond markets closed for the Christmas holiday... Friday: MVCO Shareholders Meeting.

A bumpy Friday caused by the expiration of options contracts, as well as the routine rebalancing of stock indexes.
The whole of Tuesday's bull has been intelligently stripped off its balance.
Friday's long upper shadow is poised to be covered back again and the musical chair starts rolling again till Christmas.

Ponzi Scheme.

Bernard Madoff, the alleged mastermind of a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.
When the market is bullish,tons of financial planner or adviser,some are self-proclaim and unlicensed will be scouting around for their preys who do not wish to miss the bandwagon.
With the onslaught of the current financial rout,investors will have learnt their bitter lesson.
Nowadays,the financial instituitons are more of a supermarket selling and pushing all sorts of by-products to the unwary clients who put great faith in their brand.Their bottom line is profit to shareholders.They also manipulate with themes and tango to the tune of the market situation.
So those free lunch seminars are real good traps set upon us so that we subscribed to their offerings.
The internet is also full of ponzi scheme such as this and many others....Autosurf.
I have tried this A3Union with USD25/=paid by e-gold,got scammed after 6 months.It has representatives in Brazil,China,US,Australia,Argentina and even organised a grandeur seminar in a posh hotel in downtown Manila.(Philippines).
Beware!!all the presentation templates are look alike.Even you and me can buy one and set it up.Cost between USD50-USD300.

Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,17/12/08
Roll-over Day for Dow Futures.
9:30am:--A 100.00 points Gap-Down.
Morgan Stanley (MS) announced a loss of $2.24 per share for its fourth fiscal quarter. The consensus called for a loss of $0.34 per share
10:30am:--Bullish engulfing.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the incoming presidential administration is considering injecting more capital into banks, creating a market for illiquid assets, and helping troubled borrowers as part of an effort to combat the financial crisis.
11:30am:--Pullback with a bullish spin.
Energy traders continue to anticipate a production cut from OPEC, which is meeting today.
12:30 noon:--Indices at MAV level with graveyard dojis.
OPEC announced it will cut daily production by 4.2 million barrels from September output. It is cutting 2.2 million barrels from current daily production. Many fear, though, that higher oil prices could further depress consumer spending.
1:30pm:--Bearish Dark Cloud cover.
Financial services giant Citigroup (C 8.00, -0.23) has remained in a rut after an article from The Wall Street Journal indicated banking regulators are increasing their oversight of Citi, suggesting an increased concern regarding Citi's financial status.
2:30pm:--Hangman.
Trading came without concerted leadership.
3:30pm:--Technical retracement in this limited time of trading.
4:00pm:--Bearish Hammer.
Citi's financial health might seeps in again.

Wall Street finished moderately lower Wednesday, as further signs of economic deterioration dampened investors' earlier enthusiasm about the Federal Reserve's record interest rate cut.
As it is roll-over day prior to Friday's Dow Index expiry,selling position is imminent from the previous bull position.

Friday is quadruple witching day!

Friday is the third Friday in December, and that means it's and fourth and final quadruple witching day of the year. Just what is quadruple witching day? The day marks the expiration of four types of securities:
Stock index futures
Stock index options
Stock options
Single stock options
This confluence of multiple expiration dates is supposed to boost market volumes as traders close out positions.

Tracking the Dow On Friday,12/12/08
5 Market Days to Quadraple Witching.
9:30am:--A 200.0 points Gap-down drop followed by a 100.00 points bullish marubozu.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier today that Bernard Madoff, a former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market and a trader, was arrested after being accused of running a fraudulent $50 billion scheme. Such misconduct by brokers and money managers has the potential to further stir investors in an already uneasy market environment.

10:30am:--A morning doji star.

The White House is willing to consider using TARP funds for automakers, according to Reuters.

11:30am:--Bearish Marubozu.

Indicies still hoovering near the session MAV.

Media giant, Tribune Co., filed for Chapter 11

12:30pm:--Dragonfly doji piercing the MAV.

Weekly initial jobless claims were 573,000 (a 26-year high) while continuing claims hit 4.43 million (also a 26-year high).Market already priced in.

1:30pm:--Bearish Hammer.

As usual the pivot hour of the day.Index pullbeack to MAV level.
General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have said they could run out of cash within weeks without government help.

2:30pm:--A dragonfly doji seen.

The Labor Department said wholesale prices sank in November for the fourth straight month, raising deflation fears. The Producer Price Index fell a greater-than-expected 2.2 percent as prices for gasoline and other energy prices retreated. That followed a record 2.8 percent drop in October.

3:30pm:--Bullish marubozu.

The day's economic news showed continuing weakness, but, as it has done with a steady stream of downbeat data in recent weeks, the market shrugged.

4:00pm:--A bullish marubozu closing.

Bright days ahead.

The weekly indices showed that all are holding strongly above the MAV in the bull county.

Whatever bad economic news are already priced in during the last few months of fearful hammering so all dust have been settled down.

Wall Street put on another impressive show of resilience Friday, rebounding from an early sell-off to end higher after the government said it would assist troubled U.S. automakers.

The auto rescue.

Wall Street is waiting for lawmakers to finish negotiating a $15 billion bailout for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC. A deal, which might occur as early as Wednesday, reportedly would give the government an ownership stake in the automakers. The market has been concerned that a collapse of GM, Chrysler or Ford Motor Co. would trigger massive job losses, and further stymie the government's efforts to lift the U.S. out of a recession.But the Republicans raised deep concerns.
A further stumbling block was Democrats' refusal to scrap language, vehemently opposed by the White House, that would force the carmakers to drop lawsuits challenging tough emissions limits in California and other states.
Another remaining hang-up was over ensuring that Cerberus, the private equity firm that owns Chrysler LLC, would reimburse the government if the auto company defaulted on its loan, said a congressional negotiator who spoke only on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose details of the emerging deal.
Even if they seal the deal, though, conservative Republicans who want to force one or more of the Big Three into bankruptcy warned they might try to block the measure, virtually guaranteeing that it will need a 60-vote majority to pass and possibly delaying approval for days.

Tracking the Dow on Tuesday,09/12/08
8 market days to Quadraple Witching.
9:30am:--A 150.0 bearish gap down points.

Reports indicate that the White House and Congress are progressing toward a bailout of the automakers.
10:30am:--Bullish Harami gap covering.

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 75 basis points to 1.50%, which was larger than the 50 basis point cut that was expected.

11:30am:--Bearish engulfing.

Just hitting the wires, October pending home sales fell 0.7% month-over-month, which was better than the expected decline of 3.0%. September was revised to a drop of 4.3% from a decline of 4.6%.

12:30pm:--Bearish spin with technical rebound.

The Nasdaq rebounds into positive ground as tech (+1.8%) outperforms.The White House is still working on the auto legislation that was submitted yesterday.

1:30pm:--Hammering at session low.

Walt Disney (DIS 24.08, -0.84) drops to session lows after the company said it was a tough fall season for their broadcasting segment, which will be reflected in advertising revenues.

2:30pm:--Bullish harami.

Goldman Sachs (GS 73.63, -3.52) had its fourth quarter earnings per share estimate slashed to a loss of $3.86 from a loss of $0.65 at Deutsche Bank, which cited increased concern over losses related to real estate.

3:30pm:--Bearish spin at day's low.

A panel that oversees the Treasury's $700 billion financial relief fund is expected to release a report Wednesday that is critical of the government's handling of the program.

4:00pm:--A bullish harami.

Crude prices fall to session lows as pit trading comes to a close. Prices are now down 3.9% to $41.99 per barrel.

The overall December candlestick has now transformed into a bullish dragonfly doji.

Tuesday's candle is struggling at this month Bull Pivot and the pair looks like a bearish harami.

I think the market makers might sell on news on annoucement of the outcome of the bailout of the automakers.

So tighten the belt again for this roller coaster ride as the long lower shadow might be utilised.

Obama’s job- creation program

Obama spoke a day after a government report showed employers in the U.S. slashed 533,000 jobs last month, the biggest decline in 34 years. The losses are “another painful reminder of the serious economic challenge our country is facing,” Obama said.
The speech offered the first details of Obama’s job- creation program. He said the investment in infrastructure will be the largest since President Dwight D. Eisenhower created the interstate highway system a half-century ago.
Obama takes office as the 44th president on Jan. 20.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,05/12/08.
10 Days to QUADRAPLE WITCHING DAY.(dow index/options expiry)
9:30am:--A 100.0 point gap-down bearish start.
Moody's affirms Credit Suisse ratings, changes outlook to negative

10:30am:--Bearish engulfing.

Crude oil has pulled all the way back from its highs, made in overnight trade, at $44.47 to trade near the flat line; currently off 7 cents to $43.60.

11:30am:-- A double bottom.

Pessimism has been underpinned by the latest jobless data. November nonfarm payrolls fell 533,000, which was a steeper decline than the drop of 335,000 that was widely expected.

12:30pm:--A morning star.

Merrill Lynch stockholders approve transaction with Bank of America (MER) 11.91 .

Crude oil makes fresh lows at $41.84; currently off $1.62 to $42.05.

1:30pm:--Inverted bull hammer.

Central Bancorp receives $10 mln of new capital under U.S. Department of Treasury's TARP Capital Purchase Program (CEBK) 5.25 +0.49 :

2:30pm:--Bullish harami.

Old Line Bancshares receives $7 mln investment from U.S. Treasury (OLBK) 7.50 0.00

3:30pm:--Ascending soldier.

Crude oil sets fresh session low of $40.50 with minutes left in the session... currently -2.87 to $40.80 :
JP Morgan Chase to participate in FDIC programs (JPM) 33.47 +2.27 : Co announced that it has elected, on behalf of itself and its eligible depository institutions, to participate in both the FDIC Transaction Account Guarantee Program and Debt Guarantee Program.

4:00pm:--Closing near day's high with slight profit-taking.
The Dow is heading towards the bullish pivot breakout.The overall December candlestick pattern is currently a bearish hammer with a long tail shadow beneath which is the range of play in the event of any adverse geo-political news.

If a Dragon-fly Doji is being formed,the bulls will go on a rampage again right on time for the Christmas Day yuletide and an early year end bang with lots of fireworks.

Unaccounted bailout funds.

The government must toughen its monitoring of the $700 billion financial bailout to ensure that banking institutions limit their top executives' pay and comply with other restrictions, federal auditors said Tuesday in the first comprehensive review of the rescue package.
Auditors fault Treasury oversight of bailout funds.
The Treasury Department has no mechanism in place to track how institutions are using $150 billion in taxpayer money that the government injected into the banking system as of last month, the Government Accountability Office concluded in its report to Congress.

Tracking the Dow on 02/12/08.

15 days to Dow Index Expiry and Quadraple Witching Day.

9:30am:--A 50.0 points gain with shooting star.

U.S. automakers will go on Capitol Hill to outline a plan on how they would use a potential $25 billion loan.

10:30am:--Gap up fully filled and a spike up.

General Electric said its sees fourth quarter earnings per share of between $0.50 and $0.52, which is on the low end of its previous range of between $0.50 and $0.65.

11:30am:--Bullish spin at session high.

Ford has submitted its plan to the Senate Banking Committee outlining how the automaker would use a government loan. The company is asking for a $9 billion line of credit with a 10-year term, which Ford would use as a backstop if conditions worsen further.

12:30am:--Triple shooting stars.

Ford (F 2.80, +0.25) reported that U.S. November sales dropped 30.6% year-over-year, which was slightly better than the expected decline of 32%. Year-to-date, sales have declined 19.7%.

1:30pm:--Bearish hammer.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the United Auto Workers Union said GM may need funding by the end of the year to avoid bankruptcy.

2:30pm:--Double bottom bullish spin.

The weak General Motors (GM 4.42, -0.17) sales data and a report that the automaker may need to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection before Christmas is weighing on sentiment.

3:30pm:--Another spinning top.

Chrysler reported that November U.S. sales fell 47% year-over-year. Year-to-date, sales are down 28%.

4:00pm:--Last minute spike up with an inverted bullish hammer.

The stock market regained about 40% of yesterday's massive 8.9% sell-off.

The market seems to be not sustainable with the onslaught of many bad news in the auto industry.

Once the bulls have short-covered the whole of Monday's candlestick,we have to run for cover again before they set the bull trap again.

The Federal Reserve said due to the strains in the financial markets it will extend three liquidity facilities through April 30, 2009. The facilities aim to increase liquidity for asset backed commercial paper and financial firms.