Sunday, June 29, 2008

The Titanic,because of you!

The Sinking of Dow,a replica of the TITANIC.
The early part of May sees two double top and the evening stars.The Mav has been penetrated and started sinking.Goldman Sachs was one of the triggers for pessimism after the brokerage forecast more credit-related write-downs.That's Paulson former company.
The Japanese stocks are heading towards stabilization but the curse of the crude oil is holding back its approach to the MAV.
Japan's annual consumer inflation accelerated more than expected in May, hitting a new decade-high on surging energy and food prices and adding to the Bank of Japan's headaches over rising costs that are hurting the economy.
Titanic- Passion~After The Battle~ (Japanese Version)
Shanghai stocks has also join the rank of the sinking titanic,caught afloat off Shanghai Beach.
The bullish harami seems to be in tandem with HSI,trying to put a break on the slide.
Titanic in HOKKIEN - SUPER FUNNY!
The HSI is at its extreme low and the bullish harami as seen should put a break on its futher downside.Government bonds rose on Friday after shares plunged on Wall Street and oil prices shot above $140 a barrel, aggravating investors' fears of high inflation and slowing economic growth.
Chinese Titanic 14
**************Because of You Karaoke

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Oil Sinks Stocks.

The Dow plummeted more than 350 points Thursday as selling accelerated following a record surge in oil prices. Oil reached $140 a barrel for the first time ever Thursday following reports that Libya may cut production and an OPEC official said crude could hit $170 a barrel this summer."This is volatility-based momentum," said Stephen Schork, publisher of energy trading newsletter The Schork Report.A lot of bears, investors who bet that the price of oil is going to go down, started buying oil to cover their short sales because they are afraid oil will shoot up overnight, said Schork.
Goldman (GS, Fortune 500) also cut its ratings on U.S. investment banks to "neutral'' from "attractive" because of continued deterioration of the banking industry and the prospect of a lengthy recovery.


Tracking the Dow on Thursday,26/06/08.(Breaking 52 weeks Low)


9:30am--Bearish Gap Down 100.0points.
An early opening CRASH!
10:30am--Shooting Star.
No sign of even a quarter gap recovery.
11:30am--Bearish Hammer.
12:30pm--Bearish Low
1:30pm--Bearish Graveyard.
2:30pm--Graveyard
3:30pm--The pall bearers.
4:00pm--The sinking Titanic.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Millionaires.

The number of people around the world with at least $1 million in assets passed 10 million for the first time last year, according to a new report. And their bank accounts are growing even faster.
The combined wealth of the globe's millionaires grew to nearly $41 trillion last year, an increase of 9 percent from a year before, Merrill Lynch & Co. and consulting firm Capgemini Group said Tuesday.
That means their average wealth was more than $4 million, the highest it's ever been. Home values were not included in asset totals.
"The growth of their wealth is outpacing the growth of their population, and that's a trend that's going to continue in coming years," said Ileana Van Der Linde, a principal with Capgemini.
The ranks of the wealthy are growing fastest in the developing economies of India, China and Brazil. The number of millionaires in India grew by about 23 percent.
The United States still reigns supreme when it comes to fat wallets, though: One in every three millionaires in the world lives in America. Combined, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America account for just one in 10.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday.25/06/08.
9:30am--Spike up 30.0 points.
Ahead of the FOMC policy announcement at 2:15 ET on rates.. Just reported, durable good orders in May were unchanged, matching estimates, which follows the 1.0% drop in April
10:30am--Dragonfly Dojis.
Open buy,long position.Fed fund futures suggest a 90% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 2.00%, and a 10% chance of a 25 basis point increase.Just hitting the wires, the Department of Commerce said May new home sales fell 2.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, which follows the upwardly revised 4.8% gain in April. The results are slightly better than the median estimate that called for a drop of 2.7%. The current level of new home sales, at 512,000, is down 40% from the previous year.
11:30am--Shootind stars.
No sign of gap pullback covering. Crude inventories for the week ended June 21 unexpectedly rose 803,000 barrels, compared to the expected decline of 1.1 million. Just prior to the release, Crude was trading down 1.0% to $135.69 per barrel.
Stocks bounce to session highs on the crude data
12:30pm--Sign of shooting star second time.
Boeing (BA 71.76, -3.02) is down 4% after being added to the Conviction Sell List at Goldman Sachs, according to reports.
1:30pm--Bearish evening star.
The stock market heads toward session highs as market participants await the the Fed's announcement at 2:15 ET. The main candle pattern is a bullish shaven bottom.
2:30pm--Triple Shooting stars.
Sell,close position.The FOMC announced that it held the fed funds and discount rates steady, as the market expected. The fed funds rate is at 2.00% and the discount rate is 2.25%.
The Fed said upside risks to inflation, and inflation expectations, has risen. However, the Fed still expects inflation to moderate and will act as needed to promote growth, and keep prices stable.
3:30pm--The bears strike back.
Selling on the back of Fed's announcement.The Fed is likely to keep rates steady for quite a while, as economic growth will remain moderate at best for at least a few more meetings. Credit market conditions are also likely to remain fragile. These factors will inhibit any rate hikes. Addressing any uptick in inflation will not come immediately, particularly as the Fed expects inflation to moderate next year.
4:00pm--Graveyard Dojis.
A mixed closing with dragonfly dojis.
Triple spinning bottom.Attempting to recover the quadraple withching Friday's candlestick.




Friday, June 20, 2008

Middle-East Tension.

An Israeli Air Force fighter jet takes off from Hazor base in southern Israel in a 2006 file photo. [Agencies]
US officials say Israel carried out a large military exercise this month that appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, The New York Times reported on Friday.
A Pentagon official who the Times said was briefed on the exercise, said one goal was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclear installations and long-range conventional missiles.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a second goal was to send a clear message that Israel was prepared to act militarily if other efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium fail.
Tracking the Dow Movement on Friday,20/06/08 (Quadraple Witching Day)

9:30am--90.0 points bombardment.
Concern related to European bank stocks are carrying over to U.S. premarket trading.
10:30am--Shooting star.
A sign of gap filling.A bearis shaven bottom in existence.
11:30am--Bearish hammer.
MBIA (MBI) had its rating cut to A2 from Aaa at Moody's. Moody's also lowered its rating on Ambac's (ABK) Ambac Assurance to Aa3 from Aaa.
12:30pm--Graveyard dojis.
With no sign of recovering strength and an overall bearish shaven top candlestick,the market has no prospect of taking any position.
1:30pm--The hangmans.
The dollar is showing some weakness, which makes imports pricier. The dollar index is down 0.6%.Crude continues to sport gains. The commodity is up 1.4% and trading hands near $133.80 per barrel.
2:30pm--Hammer.
Financials rebounded from their lows at midday, but have succumbed to renewed selling pressure.
3:30pm--Hammer.
Friday was an options expiration date, making for heavy volume as traders entered the market in droves. However, the session’s tone was pessimistic as concerns surrounding financial and bank stocks bled into other sectors.
4:00pm--Bearish unwinding.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday with the Dow closing below 12,000 for the first time since mid-March as rising oil prices and warnings of more mortgage-related write-downs at banks reignited investor fears of worse to come.
The session started on a negative note, as investors dumped commercial bank shares after Merrill Lynch said it sees dividend cuts and the need to raise more capital at Bank of America, Regions Financial, SunTrust Banks and Wachovia Corp.
v

Thursday, June 19, 2008

World Population.

World population will reach 7 billion in 2012, according to a new estimate released by the US Census Bureau Thursday.
The world population hit 6 billion in 1999 and another billion will be added to the total in only 13 years, the bureau said.
A reminder of the quick population growth is that the world's population even did not reach one billion in 1800.
The US Census Bureau attributed the growth to medical and nutritional advances in developing countries after World War II.
Nevertheless the latest projection shows that world population will grow at a slower pace during the first half of the 21st century than the latter half of the 20th century.
The world population doubled from 3 billion in 1959 to 6 billion in 1999, but is projected to increase by only 50 percent between 1999 and 2040.
Global population growth, about 1.2 percent per year, is projected to decline to 0.5 percent by 2050.
At the same time, the world population is growing older quickly.
The bureau estimated that by 2050, about 5 percent of the world 's population is projected to be 80 or older, in comparison with about 1.5 percent of the current global population is 80 or older.
It also projected that India will overtake China as the world's most populous nation by 2050.
Tracking the Dow on Thursday,19/06/08
9:30am--Spike up 50.00 points bull.
Thursday did offer its share of economic data. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 were more than expected, totaling 381,000 and down 5,000 from the prior week.
10:30am--Gap up being filled.Spinning bullish bottom.


A negative 40.0 points.Buy-long position.
Notably, weekly claims have held steady and do not reflect levels typical of a recessionary environment.
11:00am--Double Top,close position sell.Bearish harami.
11:30am--Double Bottom,open buy-long again.Morning star.
12:30 pm--Bearish Harami.Sell close position.
The Philadelphia Fed Index, a regional assessment of manufacturing activity, posted a reading of -17.1 for June. Economists forecast a reading of -10.0. Separately, a reading of leading economic indicators for May climbed 0.1%, matching the prior month's reading.
1:30pm--Holding at MAV.Main Candle pattern:-Bullish spinning Doji.
The financial sector encountered some marked selling pressure.Citigroup (C 20.17, -0.23) stated it will continue to have substantial marks on subprime exposure this quarter and will likely incur a monoline adjustment on par with that of last quarter.
2:30pm--Bulls light up the up shadow of spinning doji.
3:30pm--Day's high completed,profit taking onset to MAV.
4:00pm--The morning star.A favorable follow through session.
Stocks ended a back-and-forth session with modest advances Thursday as a sharp drop in oil prices helped counter renewed concerns about the strength of the economy.
Oil fell nearly $5 per barrel after China announced plans to raise caps on gasoline and diesel fuel prices, a move that could ease global demand. The pullback in oil was welcome after weeks in which rising prices have pinned down investor sentiment with fears that the run-up would force businesses and consumers to curb spending.But worrisome comments from Citigroup Inc. perhaps damped some investors' spirits. The bank warned that a "substantial"amount of write-downs on bad debts are yet to come.
Volatility is likely to continue Friday because of the expiration of options contracts. Known as "quadruple witching," it marks the simultaneous expiration of contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures and often leads to heavy trading near the start and end of the session.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

US in recession.

The finances of many states have deteriorated so badly that they appear to be in a recession, regardless of whether that's true for the nation as a whole, a survey of all 50 state fiscal directors concludes.
The situation looks even worse for the fiscal year that begins July 1 in most states.
"Whether or not the national economy is in recession -- a subject of ongoing debate -- is almost beside the point for some states," said the report to be released Friday by the National Conference of State Legislatures.
The weakening economy is hitting tax revenue in a number of ways: People's discretionary income is being gobbled up by higher food and fuel costs, while the tanking housing market means people are spending less on furniture and appliances associated with buying a house.
Last week, the Washington-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said 27 states are reporting projected budget shortfalls next year totaling at least $39 billion.
President Bush said Tuesday that the economy was not in a recession but a period of slower growth. However, some economists have pointed to the string of declines in manufacturing orders to argue that the economy has fallen into a recession.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,18/06/08
9:30am--Bearish spike,60.0 points.
Shares of FedEx (FDX) are under pressure in premarket trading after the company reported lower than expected earnings, and issued full year guidance that is well below expectations. Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) announced its is raising $1 billion in capital and cutting its dividend in an effort to shore up its balance sheet. Morgan Stanley (MS) reported a 61% year-over-year drop in second quarter earnings per share, but that was good enough to top expectations. Crude oil is trading up 0.4% ahead of the governments weekly energy report.
10:30am--Session low,no sign of gap filling,bad.
One day after Goldman Sachs said U.S. banks may need to raise as much as $65 billion in additional capital, regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 10.91, -1.82) announced plans to shore up its balance sheet. Specifically, the Ohio-based bank is going to raise $1 billion in fresh capital, sell $1 billion in assets and cut its quarterly dividend by 66% to $0.15 per share.
Candlesticks main pattern:Unshaven top and bottom with long black bar.
11:30am--Inverted white hammer .
Open a buy-long position and plan to sell close position around session MAV.
12:00noon--A spinning top,MAV reached.
Technical rebound so clear position for small gain.
12:30pm--Dark cloud cover.
Just hitting the wires, the Department of Energy said crude inventories for the week ended June 13 fell 1.24 million barrels, a smaller decline than the expected 1.75 million decrease. Just prior to the report, crude was trading near the unchanged mark at $134.0
1:30pm--Bearish cover.
Shares of MF Global (MF 8.65, -4.61) -- a broker of exchange traded futures -- have tumbled 35% after the company announced it is raising $300 million in capital to repay a short term loan that is due in December 2008.
2:30pm--Bullish spike up,retracement to MAV.
Crude oil futures climb to a fresh session, up 2.00% to $136.67.
3:30pm--Hangman.
Aiming back to session low.
4:00pm--Another graveyard spin.
The major indices settled with steep losses on Wednesday, after traders digested mixed earnings reports, news that another bank is raising capital and volatile crude prices.
The three black crows swooning in to feed the carcasses.

Coffee drinkers may live longer.

A coffee is pictured in a Costa Coffee branch in Loughborough, central England June 17, 2008. [Agencies]
Drinking up to six cups of coffee a day might not lead to early death but rather help the heart, especially for women,the findings were published in the June 17 issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine, published by the American College of Physicians.
A leading researcher Dr. Esther Lopez-Garcia, assistant professor of preventive medicine at the Autonomous University of Madrid, Spain,stressed that the findings may only hold true for healthy people.
"People with any disease or condition should ask their doctor about their risks, because caffeine still has an acute effect on short-term increase of blood pressure," she said.
Tracking the Dow on Tuesday,17/06/08
9:30am--Bullish Gap-up 60.0 points.
Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs (GS) reported better than expected quarterly earnings despite feeling the effects of the continuing financial crisis.
10:30am--Gap-up fully filled & in negative zone.
Market players appeared to be disappointed by reports saying that the Federal Reserve won't do anything about interest rates in the near term, according to S&P MarketScope.
Main candle pattern:-Graveyard doji.
11:30am--Bear raiders.
A nearly 120.0 points downslide.Bank stocks were among the weakest performers.A doji below the bearish candle.
12:30pm--Graveyard Doji.
Inflation warnings came from the U.S. producer price index, which jumped 1.4% in May, while the core rate -- excluding food and energy -- rose 0.2%. The headline PPI is up 7.2% from a year ago, while the core rate is up 3%. Energy prices in the PPI increased 4.9%, with gas prices up 9.3% and food prices up 0.8%.
1:30pm--Hammering beneath the MAV.
On the housing front, U.S. housing starts fell 3.3% to an annual pace of 975,000 in May, from 1.008 million in April. Starts are down 32.1% from a year ago.
2:30pm--The bears & graveyard.
The price of oil was lower Tuesday. On the NYMEX, crude oil for July delivery was down 63 cents, trading at $133.98 per barrel.
3:30pm--Bearish engulfing.
U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in May, the second straight monthly decline. Also, the U.S. current account deficit rose to $176.4 billion in the first quarter, from $167.2 billion in the last quarter of 2007.
4:00pm--Gravediggers.
A day of negative news to be carried forward.
Stocks closed lower Tuesday as a warning from Goldman Sachs that banks may need to raise another $65 billion rippled through the market, offsetting any positive impact from Goldman's earnings.
The engulfing candle will complete its mission by tonight to get ready for the triple witching day next Friday.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Oily Dilemma,Bounty contracts.

US and China business leaders, including former US National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft (2nd L), US Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue (3rd L) and China's Vice Premier Wang Qishan (2nd R), share a toast after a business partnership signing ceremony at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington June 16, 2008. [Agencies]


Representatives from US and Chinese companies on Monday signed 71 contracts and agreements worth $13.6 billion in total in Missouri and Washington D.C.
Wang and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will co-chair the fourth round of the SED between June 17 and 18 at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, about a 30-minute drive from Washington.
Tracking the Dow on Monday,16/06/08
9:30am--Oily Slide of 70.0 points.
Crude oil sets new record of $139.89; currently trading +3.70 at 138.58.
10:30am--Retracement To Half Body,Shooting Star.
The June NY Empire Manufacturing Index, a regional manufacturing survey, fell to -8.7, compared to the consensus estimate of -2.0. Lehman Brothers (LEH) reported a loss of $5.13 per share, which was in-line with the firm's preannouncement.
Candle pattern:-Black with long lower shadow.
11:30am--Hangman,Dojis at MAV line.
A brokerage downgrade of General Electric (GE 28.73, -0.42), record crude prices, and a worse-than-expected regional manufacturing survey is weighing on the market.
12:30noon--A bullish spike up.
The Dow has remained in negative territory throughout the session. Dow components Verizon (VZ 36.32, -1.01), AT&T (T 35.65, -1.03) and General Electric (GE 28.74, -0.41) are all under pressure after being downgraded by brokerage firms.
1:30pm--A double Hammer.
Crude oil is now trading down 0.7% to $133.90 per barrel -- which is $6 less than its all-time high that was reached early this morning. The stock market climbs into positive territory thanks to mostly broad-based buying interest, with notable strength within tech (+0.7%) and other large-cap names within the Nasdaq 100 (+1.1%).Open Sell-short the market.
2:30pm--Hangman with long lower shadow.
Overall candle pattern now:a black body with long undercurrent.
3:30pm--Graveyard Dojis + grave diggers.
The Day's MAV has been reached.
Candle pattern:Bearish hammer.
4:00pm--A morning star.
A rebound in the offing.
Along the path of ascending movement.The stock market settled unchanged on Monday, as strength in financials offset weakness in consumer staples and telecom.
Much of the action, however, was outside of the stock market, with crude prices going on massive $7 swing from peak to trough.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Prices Stay,Product shrink.

There's a reason why the tub of ice cream you bought last week looks a tad smaller than ones you bought last summer.
It is.
Many major ice cream makers, hit by higher dairy costs, have shrunk their standard containers to 1.5 quarts from 1.75 quarts, about 1 cup less.
Downsizing is nothing but a sneaky price increase.Driving forces behind the downsizing:- commodity costs are way up. So are packaging costs. Manufacturing and transportation costs also have increased significantly.
Typically, shoppers are asked to pay more, but these are not typical times. Raising prices when strapped consumers are price-sensitive can be a formula for disaster. That's why there's often less in the box instead.
Many were from the most familiar brands. Companies don't like to discuss it, but here are examples:
•Less crunch.Frito-Lay has cut the number of chips in bags across all brands
•Hold the mayo. A jar of Hellmann's mayonnaise that was 32 ounces is now 30.
•Spread thinner. Shedd's Spread Country Crock was shrunk from 48 ounces to 45, due to higher commodity and energy costs.
•Grain shortage. The price of grains has been rising for a while, in part due to increased demand for corn to produce ethanol. Kellogg downsized Frosted Flakes, Rice Krispies and Mini-Wheats in 2006. Boxes shrank from 24.3 ounces to 24 and from 19 ounces to 18.
•Slippery soap. Early this year, Henkel of America downsized its Dial soap bath bar from 4.5 ounces to 4.
•Less bountiful. This spring, Bounty cut the number of towels on a roll from 60 to 52. Procter & Gamble spokeswoman Celeste Kuta says the reduction was because the sheets are now "improved" and thicker.

Tracking the Dow on Friday,13/06/08


9:30am--Spike-up 70.00 points.
The CPI report served as a rallying point Friday for the stock market, which was relieved that it wasn't any worse than feared. (rose by 0.6 percent in all)
10:30am--The pullback to MAV.
An earlier Hangman + graveyard doji is a sign of sell down but will touch near MAV before another bounce near noon.
11:30am--Bearish Hangman.
The bears in control at this moment of time and will drag it to the MAV.The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in lower than expected, falling to 56.7 in June, below the anticipated 59.0 level, and significantly lower than the 59.8 reading in May.
12:30noon--HAMMER.
The bulls taking lunch time break.The overall candlestick is a shaven bottom bullish candle.Look to buy anything below the MAV.as the chances of upper shadow covering is a sure thing.
1:30pm--Bearish spin.
A small technical rebound to MAV.with shooting star.Wait for confirmation.
2:30pm-There were 2 double bottom between the dragonfly dojis half an hour earlier.
Buy,Oil prices lost steam ,July delivery settled $1.88 lower at $134.86 a barrel.
3:30pm--The doji day,tug of war between bull & bear now.
The bears gave up their penetration below the MAV.
4:00pm--Closing bell,the bulls have overwhelmed the day's market.

The Dow's enroute to recovery.


"The inflation news was certainly not good, but what's helping the market is all the talk about strengthening the dollar and bringing oil prices down," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
"We're seeing jawboning from Fed officials, Treasury officials, central bank officials about boosting the dollar, which could drive out some of the speculation in commodities markets," he said.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Inflation causes global recession

Slower growth is spreading around the world with inflation being main threat to causing global recession, U.S. Conference Board said here on Thursday.
Vice President and Chief Economist of U.S. Conference Board Bart van Ark told a press briefing that with U.S. consumer confidence hitting the lowest level since 1992, and employment trends index showing no relief in short term, U.S. economy is in a solid slow growth mode, with little perspective to move much in rest of 2008.
Meanwhile, Europe and emerging economies in Asia are also showing significant slowdown in economy growth, he said.
Van Ark pointed out that the main downward risk comes from global inflation. While U.S. and European inflation trends may come down as demand eases, the global trend, in particular for emerging economies remains worrying, he said.
"Even after speculative bubbles burst, inflation rate may not come down to level before the increase," van Ark said. "Demand- supply mismatches will not be easily relaxed, and protectionist backlashes may distort global growth."
Established in 1916, the U.S. Conference Board is the world's preeminent business membership and research organization, best known for its monthly U.S. Consumer Confidence Index and the Leading Economic Indicators.

Tracking the Dow on Thursday,12/06/08.




9:30am--Bullish Gap up 70.00 points.
Premarket optimism has resulted from a dip in oil prices.Philadelphia Fed President Plosser stated in an interview on CNBC that the Fed has to be careful its accomodative policy does not create inflation pressures.
10:30am--Graveyard Doji + Hangman.
Open a sell-short position.Aim to close at anything below MAV.ie:(12270+12090)/2=12180. Set to close position at (12180+12090)=12135 region.
11:30am--Bearish Hammer + graveyard doji.
A technical retracement to the high again forming the double top.According to CNBC, Lehman Brothers (LEH) is axing its Chief Financial Officer, Erin Callan, and its Chief Operating Officer, Joseph Gregory.
12:30pm--Graveyard doji + Bearish marubozu.
This session's primary leaders include financial players Bank of America (BAC 29.81, +0.96), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 38.20, +1.07), and Citigroup (C 19.98, +0.77).Of the Dow Jones Industrials components, only four are trading with a loss. Materials company Alcoa (AA 39.27, -0.05) and energy companies Chevron (CVX 98.23, -1.19) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 87.85, -0.76) are all posting a decline. General Motors (GM 15.94, -0.18) is also trading in the red.
1:30pm--Bearish shooting star.
Oil has also made a bit of a comeback. Crude prices are now down roughly 1.1%, a bit below $135 per barrel.
2:30pm--Bearish Hangman.
The S&P 500 Retail Index continues to sport a strong gain on the session, currently up 1.7%. Sector members Target (TGT 52.06, +0.45), Best Buy (BBY 44.23, +0.77), and Macy's (M 21.31, +0.45) are receiving positive attention after retail purchases in May climbed more than expected, suggesting consumers are not yet sunk by higher fuel and food costs.
My objective of bear pivot index at 12,135 achieved so close and buy-back.
3:30pm--Bullish marubozu.
The day's low was set here and for an extensive rebound is limited.
4:00pm--Graveyard Doji.
It seem that there are still weakness and cracks on the Wall.


The bullish inverted hammer is a good sign the 2nd bottom of the Dow formed this week will boost the index again in time for the big swing on Triple Witching Day on 20/06/08.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Inflation concern.

Inflation concerns have gripped markets world-wide -- China's stock market dropped 7.7 percent yesterday after the government announced plans to take some money out of its financial system to curb inflation. The inflation rate there is 8 percent; in Vietnam, it's a whopping 25 percent, resulting in a move by the government that effectively devalued the currency. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials have begun to ratchet up the volume on inflation concerns. The topic will take center stage at a meeting of G-8 finance ministers at the end of the week.
"The latest round of increases in energy prices has added to the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations," Bernanke said. The Fed will "strongly resist" an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,11/06/08


09:30am--Bearish Spike of 40.0 points.
Several Fed officials will be speaking today, include Vice Chairman Donald Kohn (11:30 ET). The beige book -- anecdotal evidence on economic conditions -- is set for release at 2:00 ET.
10:30am--Hangman,Hammer,Bear.
No sign of gap covering.Index still hoovering at session low.Main candlestick:190.0 points long black bar.Can't do anything.
11:30am--A morning star.
Any technical rebound will be shortlive near the session MAV.Just hitting the wires, crude inventories for the week ended June 6 fell by 4.6 million barrels, which is larger than the expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Crude was trading up 3.1% to $135.26 per barrel just prior to the release.
12:30pm--Graveyard Dojis.
The stock market falls back toward session lows as headlines from Fed Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn hit the wires. Kohn said anchoring inflation expectations "is critical" and that the gain in oil prices is raising consumer inflation expectations.
1:30pm--Bearish hammer.
Weakness is broad-based, Co Oil is doing its thing again today, with prices topping $137 per barrel in the past half-hour.Commodities are having a better day, with the CRB Index up 2.2% as the dollar slides 0.7%.

2:30pm--Rebound to MAV with another bulliush hammering candlestick.
Broad-based buying interest lifts the stock market, although it is still posting a large loss of roughly 1%. The energy sector stands alone in positive territory.
3:30pm--The last shooting star.
The major indices are trading at or near their session lows, in a broad-based retreat. Financials (-2.7%) and telecom (-2.7%) are posting the largest losses.
4:00pm--Downslide with graveyard doji.
An ugly scene today with bloody fallen heroes soldiers of fortune.The Fed's Beige Book -- which contains anecdotal economic information from the 12 Fed districts -- expressed evidence of increased inflation.

Stocks tumbled Wednesday as oil's resurgence lit the fuse of inflation fears, pushing the Dow to a three-month low.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Russia's power

MOSCOW -- Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said Russia will become the world's sixth largest economy by the end of 2008, Russian news agencies reported Sunday.
"For the past eight years, Russia has been developing. By the end of this year, we will become the world's sixth largest economy," Shuvalov was quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency as saying at the 12th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
Russia, which joined the G8 in 1998, has now "become a fully-fledged member of the world's largest economies, the deputy prime minister said.
"We are beginning to put behind us the severe crisis of the last decade, and have given ourselves new goals to become a country with developed institutions, a modern democracy with a post-industrial economic structure, and to build a global financial center," he said.
As to the government's future role in the economy, Shuvalov said the government will scale down its dominant role in the economy. "Reducing excessive state interference in the economy is now an important factor," he said.
However, he added that new state companies would be established in the future. "We believe they are needed to act where market agents are not able to act independently. We will create them in such a way that they will work entirely openly, under the rules of corporate governance," he said.
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, running from June 6 to June 8, is a major economic forum in the Commonwealth of Independent States, central and east Europe region, held annually in June.
Tracking the Dow on Monday 09/06/08


09:30am--Bullish 40.0 points gap up.
Despite Moody's lowered Lehman's credit ratings to negative from stable, citing the second quarter loss and decline in hedge effectiveness,Crude prices have eased 2.3% to $135.48 per barrel helped bolster sentiment.
10:30am--Bearish Engulfing.
Session high noted, just hitting the wires, April pending home sales unexpectedly bounced 6.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to National Association of Realtors.The tech sector (-0.5%) is facing selling pressure.Index just hoovered around the MAV,difficult to open position as the current candlestick is like a bullish inverted hammer.
11:30am--Shooting star.
The Dow is handily outperforming the Nasdaq and S&P 500.Technology stocks Apple (AAPL 181.97, -3.67) and Google (GOOG 553.95, -13.05) are acting as the biggest drags.
12:30am--2nd shooting star
A second quarter earnings preannouncement from Lehman Brothers (LEH 29.97, -2.32) topped headlines this morning. The struggling Wall Street firm expects a massive $2.8 billion second quarter loss and plans to raise $6.0 billion in new capital in common and preferred stock offerings -- which is on the high end of previous speculation. The $4.0 billion common stock offering was priced at $28 per share, a 13% discount to Friday's closing price. The firm also priced a $2.0 billion public offering of 2 million shares of 8.75% noncumulative mandatory convertible preferred stock.The 3 black crows hammering the market during this time.Candlestick pattern still a bullish inverted hammer.Look to buy-long position.
01:30pm--A shooting star at MAV.
It is dangerous to open a position at MAV area as it can go either way.The major indices have suffered a sharp contraction in the the past half-hour after news wires ran headlines that noted New York Fed President Geithner said global inflation will probably require tighter policy.
02:30pm--Another shooting star at MAV

The major indices fall to session lows and then recover a bit, with the Dow briefly touching negative ground.Buying opportunity.
03:30pm--A morning star doji
Below MAV good buy area.
04:00pm--Bearish short cover

A double bottom formed for the week.A morning star pair candlestick.Should be brighter days ahead.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Oil factor.

Many traders buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the dollar is falling, and a weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for investors dealing in other currencies. Analysts believe the dollar's protracted decline has been a major reason why oil prices have nearly doubled in the past year.
The influx of so much fresh money into the energy markets has caught the attention of federal watchdogs. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently said it was six months into a probe of US oil markets focused on possible price manipulation.
Oil settled at $138.54, a rise of more than 8 percent. The surged came after Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer predicted strong demand in Asia and tight supplies in the Western Hemisphere could drive prices to $150 by Independence Day, when millions of Americans take to the roads.
That means no end in sight for spiraling gas prices, already above $4 per gallon in much of the country.
Even longtime market observers were shocked by the magnitude and speed of oil's rally.
"We're into unchartered territory, and somewhat off the map as far as historical precedents are concerned," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,06/06/08
09:30am--Huge Tsunami,gap down 110.0points.
Disappointing employment report for May and a stunning rise in oil prices which closed at a new record high of $138.54 per barrel.
10:30am--Graveyard dojis with bullish hammer.
Still hoovering around session low,no sign of even a slight gap recovery.
11:30am--Hangman.
Moving towards end of morning session,a slight technical rebound and thereafter the spinning tops again.
12:30pm--Spinning bottom.
Weakness still prevail as it's holding on to half-day's low.Rescue effort is difficult as it has reached nearly 230.0points.
01:30pm--Bearish spike down.
02:30pm--Shooting star.
03:30pm--Hammer at day's low.
It's a dead end.No hope.
04:00pm--Dragonfly doji.
Countdown to "Quadruple Withching day"--3rd Friday of June.
The critical bear main pivot of 52 weeks Dow Movng Averages.The Dow is about to join the Big League at par with Nikkei 225 of Japan & the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite where its 52 weeks gains were totally wipe-off.It's Doom's Day.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Home,BUY 1 FREE1

Dawn Berry of Michael Crews Developments jumps for photographer in front of a 1.8 million-dollar home at a development in San Pasqual Valley, California June 3, 2008. [Agencies]
OFFER VALID TILL END JUNE.
A San Diego developer desperate to clear inventory is offering potential home buyers a buy-one-get-one-free scheme.
Michael Crews Development will give away a row home valued at US$400,000 with the purchase of a $1.6 million luxury estate home in the upscale city of Escondido in northern San Diego County.
The two-acre Royal View luxury homes with four bedrooms, four baths, up to six car garages, swimming pools would be paired with 2,000 square-foot upscale row houses.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,04/06/08 9:30am--Bearish Gap-down,20.0 points.
Early spotlight,Lehman is looking overseas for capital, and rumors that the firm was buying back its own shares yesterday were true, citing souces.
10:30am--Gap cover.
3 ascending soldiers with pullback at MAV thereafter reached a second peak.There were many white bars so decided to oepen a buy-long position.May private payrolls unexpectedly rose.
The Department of Energy just announced that crude inventories for the week ended May 30 fell 4.8 million barrels,0am--Hangman,hammer.
11:30am--Hangman,hammer.
A third peak,so decided to close position for the morning session.(H12500+L12380)/2=12440(MAV).Meanwhile crude oil prices are down 1.1% to $122.88 per barrel in response to the government's weekly inventory report.
12:30pm--spike down to MAV12440.
A long black bar.The bears are back.
1:30pm--Bearish harami.
It's still at the session MAV.The candlestick seems to be melting.Moody's has placed Ambac's Aaa insurance financial strength rating on review for a possible downgrade.
2:30pm--Furious bears.
Wiping off mornigs gain.Weakness is broad-based within financials
3:30pm--Congestion below MAV.
Still sign of bearish hammer.The stock market falls to session lows on the release of Fed Chairman Bernanke's prepared text for his Harvard speech.
Bernanke said inflation is "significantly higher" than the Fed wants, and that price stability is "a top priority" of the Fed. He noted that there is no sign of the 1970s-type price wage spiral. Bernanke added, "If people expect an increase in inflation to be temporary and do not build it into their longer-term plans for setting wages and prices, then the inflation created by a shock to oil prices will tend to fade relatively quickly."
Note that Bernanke already talked about inflation pressures yesterday, and this speech is for Harvard's "Class Day."
4:00pm--Hangman.
May ISM services -- a survey of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers -- was nearly unchanged at 51.7 compared to 52.0 in April.Private nonfarm employment rose by 40,000 in May,First quarter nonfarm productivity was revised to a gain of 2.6% from 2.2% (consensus +2.5%).The session's three economic reports were not especially strong, but they were all better than expected. Importantly, the data are reflective of an economy that is not in a recession.
The stock market traded in a volatile manner Wednesday.The market dipped noticeably in midafternoon trading after the news wires ran headlines from a speech on inflation that was given by Fed Chairman Bernanke at Harvard. The chairman noted the Fed's concerns about inflation and inflation expectations. In brief, it was largely an academic discussion.
A 2 way volatility is on again thru the following session.

Signs of new world order

The world economy is cooling this year thanks to a slowdown in the United States, but something new is playing out: This slowdown is serving to amplify a shift in financial power toward Asia and developing nations.
Countries such as China and India are now big enough to help guide the global economy. In the past, a sharp downshift in the US and Europe would decisively slow the rate of global growth.
The US economy remains the world's mightiest. But even for Americans, this new economic order has immediate implications:
-- Demand for US exports from these new markets is providing a helpful cushion for growth, yet trade tensions could be an issue in the US presidential election.
-- Money from emerging markets is playing an increasingly important role in the US financial system.
-- Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve must worry about upward price pressures for food and fuel. That problem calls for tighter monetary policy, while the domestic consumer slump calls for the opposite policy.
For consumers and workers worldwide, what's playing out is a tug of war between two opposing problems.
First is the weakness in the US and some other advanced nations as a housing slump and related credit squeeze hits households. That's dragging GDP growth down on all continents.
Second is inflation, a symptom of the strength of emerging nations. Their demand for commodities explains much of the surge in fuel and food prices worldwide. It's this problem that is, at present, taking center stage as a global worry.
Tracking the Dow On Tuesday,03/06/08.
9:30am--30.0points bull gap-up.
Better reading on the economy: Factory orders rose 1.1% in April after increasing 1.5% in March, the government reported. Sales were expected to drop 0.1% in the month.
10:30am--Gap sell down,early spinning top.
Bernanke on growth: The Fed chairman said the economy remains under pressure, but implied that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates again soon, due to rising oil prices and other inflationary pressures. Bernanke was speaking to the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Spain, via satellite. (Full story.)
A small inverted bull hoovering at the trading low.
11:30am--Two black crows with hangman.
A failed attempt to break the high.Open a sell-short position.Oil prices fall: U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $3.45 to settle at $124.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
12:30pm--Hangman.
Reports that Lehman Brothers may need to raise more capital amid the credit market fallout.
1:30pm-- The kamikaze(Japanese suisidal planes)
A long black bar with a killer sword.
2:30pm--A bullish harami.
Close and buy-long position.(High+Low)/2=MAV.Either a technical rebound at MAV or mid-way between (Low+MAV)/2.
3:30pm--Ascending soldiers.
Bravo!It touches the MAV.
4:00pm--Pullback ending with four legged leaping frog.

The three gorges.(Image results for three gorges)
Earthquake danger of dams. [Full story]
The Dow since Friday is a replica of the Niagara Falls.It should have reached the bottom.