China increases US treasury holdings

China increased its holdings of US treasury securities by $65.9 billion in October, consolidating its place as the No 1 holder of American debt, according to the Treasury's latest report on international capital flows.

The continual increases in US debt holdings in recent months have triggered fierce domestic debate, as the country has channeled almost a third of its $2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves into US treasury securities.

With US treasuries recently gaining investor favor, their yields have been on the decline; but in the long term, they are still a relatively safe investment for China.

Tracking the Dow on Monday,22/12/08

9:30am:--A mild bullish open with a hangman.

There is no economic data scheduled for release today.

10:30am:--A rebound to session MAV.

The overall mood this morning has been generally pessimistic. Toyota Motors (TM) warned it expects to post a loss of approximately $1.68 billion in its fiscal year through March,first ever.

11:30am:--Bearish hangman warning.

Many developers are warning that office complexes, hotels, shopping centers, and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies.

12:30pm:--Bullish hammer.

Stocks continue to chop along in negative territory. Hoovering at session low for second time.

1:30pm:--Attempt to rebound to MAV has fall short with another hangman.

President-elect Obama continues to target job creation as a primary goal of the new administration. Creating millions of jobs will come with a heavy price tag, however. Some expect the cost could reach up to $1 trillion.

2:30pm:--Hangman & bullish hammer at session new low.

Stocks briefly pulled up from their session lows, but have succumbed to further selling pressure. This session's weakness has impacted a wide range of stocks, though by varying degree.

3:30pm:--The day's low with a morning star doji.

Stocks spike up.Persistently weak economic conditions prompted the International Monetary Fund to indicate it may cut its economic forecast. The IMF also indicated that a lack of fiscal stimulus could worsen 2009.

4:00pm:--A breakaway bull.

U.S. stocks closed lower in light trading Monday afternoon at the start of a holiday-shortened week.

U.S. retail stocks struggled as investors fretted over fears the Christmas shopping season would be the worst for nearly 40 years, while auto makers fell on concerns the U.S. government bailout would leave GM shareholders out in the cold.

Overall the December month's candlestick is still in a bearish spin.

Avoiding the Ponzi Scam.

1) Make sure your adviser is legit.
Check with national organizations that issue credentials. They include the National Association of Personal Financial Advisers, the Financial Planning Association, and the Certified Financial Board of Standards. Each offers a searchable database with contact information for planners in each state. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants has a list of CPAs who've earned the personal financial specialist designation.
2) Dig deep.
Find out how long the adviser has been in the business. Check with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
3) Understand the difference between a manager and a custodian.
The manager of assets executes those transactions.. A custodian is in possession of your investment account and issues periodic statements of transactions.
4) Be skeptical of pitches for exotic or obscure products.
"Only invest in transparent assets. We don't invest in anything we can't turn to cash in three days or less, which limits us to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds." A hedge fund, which isn't required to disclose its holdings, is an example of a nontransparent investment. Also, be especially wary if your adviser downplays or denies risk.
5) Be especially vigilant if you're nearing or in retirement.
Bogus operators sometimes con older investors through free-lunch seminars that are followed by calls from salespeople a few days later (a common recommendation is to liquidate securities and use the proceeds to buy indexed or variable annuities).If someone promises an investment return that is unnaturally high or steady, the warning alarm should start sounding.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,19/12/08
Quadaraple Witching Day.
9:30am:--Bullish 100.00 points gap-up with a morning star doji.
Dow Jones has reported that the White House will give automakers $13.4 billion in funding from the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). An additional $4.0 billion will be made available in February.
10:30am:--Early session high with bearish spin.
News of the bailout plan has overshadowed word that Standard & Poor's downgraded the ratings and outlooks of several financial firms, including, but not limited to, Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC).
11:30am:--Bearish spin steep downward spike.
General Motors says Administration's actions helps to preserve many jobs, and supports the continued operation of GM and the many suppliers (GM) 4.28 +0.62 Fitch has downgraded the Issuer Default Rating of General Motors to 'C', indicating that default is imminent.
The threat of a bankruptcy remains, given the terms of the federal assistance, and the maturity.
12:30pm:--Bullish gap-up being covered back fully followed by technical rebound at the bearish low.
Chevron announces it has been awarded a master contract by the U.S. Department of Energy (CVX) 73.04 -0.01.To reduce energy and water consumption and increase the use of renewable energy at agency facilities.
1:30pm:--Technical rebound failed to smell the MAV,lack of bullish momentum.
Ford reminded investors that it is in a different position than competitors and is not facing a near-term liquidity issue. Ford also stated it is not seeking short-term financial assistance from the government.
2:30pm:--Another near session low with technical rebound failed to reach MAV.
December stock options expire at the end of this session, which makes it likely that volume will be higher across the major indices. Option expiration could also bring about added volatility.
3:30pm:--Bearish morning star.
Moody's puts ratings of Bank Of America, National Association (Aaa Deposits) on review for downgrade (BAC) 13.85 -0.11
4:00pm:--Bearish unwinding of position overuling the attempted spike up.
Events of interest for the week of, December 22nd - 26th, include: Monday: No events/conferences of note... Tuesday: GW Special Shareholders Meeting; PNC Special Shareholders Meeting; WTBA Shareholders Meeting... Wednesday: Financial future & options and equity markets close early for the Christmas holiday (13:00 ET)... Thursday: Equity and bond markets closed for the Christmas holiday... Friday: MVCO Shareholders Meeting.

A bumpy Friday caused by the expiration of options contracts, as well as the routine rebalancing of stock indexes.
The whole of Tuesday's bull has been intelligently stripped off its balance.
Friday's long upper shadow is poised to be covered back again and the musical chair starts rolling again till Christmas.

Ponzi Scheme.

Bernard Madoff, the alleged mastermind of a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.
When the market is bullish,tons of financial planner or adviser,some are self-proclaim and unlicensed will be scouting around for their preys who do not wish to miss the bandwagon.
With the onslaught of the current financial rout,investors will have learnt their bitter lesson.
Nowadays,the financial instituitons are more of a supermarket selling and pushing all sorts of by-products to the unwary clients who put great faith in their brand.Their bottom line is profit to shareholders.They also manipulate with themes and tango to the tune of the market situation.
So those free lunch seminars are real good traps set upon us so that we subscribed to their offerings.
The internet is also full of ponzi scheme such as this and many others....Autosurf.
I have tried this A3Union with USD25/=paid by e-gold,got scammed after 6 months.It has representatives in Brazil,China,US,Australia,Argentina and even organised a grandeur seminar in a posh hotel in downtown Manila.(Philippines).
Beware!!all the presentation templates are look alike.Even you and me can buy one and set it up.Cost between USD50-USD300.

Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,17/12/08
Roll-over Day for Dow Futures.
9:30am:--A 100.00 points Gap-Down.
Morgan Stanley (MS) announced a loss of $2.24 per share for its fourth fiscal quarter. The consensus called for a loss of $0.34 per share
10:30am:--Bullish engulfing.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the incoming presidential administration is considering injecting more capital into banks, creating a market for illiquid assets, and helping troubled borrowers as part of an effort to combat the financial crisis.
11:30am:--Pullback with a bullish spin.
Energy traders continue to anticipate a production cut from OPEC, which is meeting today.
12:30 noon:--Indices at MAV level with graveyard dojis.
OPEC announced it will cut daily production by 4.2 million barrels from September output. It is cutting 2.2 million barrels from current daily production. Many fear, though, that higher oil prices could further depress consumer spending.
1:30pm:--Bearish Dark Cloud cover.
Financial services giant Citigroup (C 8.00, -0.23) has remained in a rut after an article from The Wall Street Journal indicated banking regulators are increasing their oversight of Citi, suggesting an increased concern regarding Citi's financial status.
2:30pm:--Hangman.
Trading came without concerted leadership.
3:30pm:--Technical retracement in this limited time of trading.
4:00pm:--Bearish Hammer.
Citi's financial health might seeps in again.

Wall Street finished moderately lower Wednesday, as further signs of economic deterioration dampened investors' earlier enthusiasm about the Federal Reserve's record interest rate cut.
As it is roll-over day prior to Friday's Dow Index expiry,selling position is imminent from the previous bull position.

Friday is quadruple witching day!

Friday is the third Friday in December, and that means it's and fourth and final quadruple witching day of the year. Just what is quadruple witching day? The day marks the expiration of four types of securities:
Stock index futures
Stock index options
Stock options
Single stock options
This confluence of multiple expiration dates is supposed to boost market volumes as traders close out positions.

Tracking the Dow On Friday,12/12/08
5 Market Days to Quadraple Witching.
9:30am:--A 200.0 points Gap-down drop followed by a 100.00 points bullish marubozu.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier today that Bernard Madoff, a former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market and a trader, was arrested after being accused of running a fraudulent $50 billion scheme. Such misconduct by brokers and money managers has the potential to further stir investors in an already uneasy market environment.

10:30am:--A morning doji star.

The White House is willing to consider using TARP funds for automakers, according to Reuters.

11:30am:--Bearish Marubozu.

Indicies still hoovering near the session MAV.

Media giant, Tribune Co., filed for Chapter 11

12:30pm:--Dragonfly doji piercing the MAV.

Weekly initial jobless claims were 573,000 (a 26-year high) while continuing claims hit 4.43 million (also a 26-year high).Market already priced in.

1:30pm:--Bearish Hammer.

As usual the pivot hour of the day.Index pullbeack to MAV level.
General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have said they could run out of cash within weeks without government help.

2:30pm:--A dragonfly doji seen.

The Labor Department said wholesale prices sank in November for the fourth straight month, raising deflation fears. The Producer Price Index fell a greater-than-expected 2.2 percent as prices for gasoline and other energy prices retreated. That followed a record 2.8 percent drop in October.

3:30pm:--Bullish marubozu.

The day's economic news showed continuing weakness, but, as it has done with a steady stream of downbeat data in recent weeks, the market shrugged.

4:00pm:--A bullish marubozu closing.

Bright days ahead.

The weekly indices showed that all are holding strongly above the MAV in the bull county.

Whatever bad economic news are already priced in during the last few months of fearful hammering so all dust have been settled down.

Wall Street put on another impressive show of resilience Friday, rebounding from an early sell-off to end higher after the government said it would assist troubled U.S. automakers.

The auto rescue.

Wall Street is waiting for lawmakers to finish negotiating a $15 billion bailout for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC. A deal, which might occur as early as Wednesday, reportedly would give the government an ownership stake in the automakers. The market has been concerned that a collapse of GM, Chrysler or Ford Motor Co. would trigger massive job losses, and further stymie the government's efforts to lift the U.S. out of a recession.But the Republicans raised deep concerns.
A further stumbling block was Democrats' refusal to scrap language, vehemently opposed by the White House, that would force the carmakers to drop lawsuits challenging tough emissions limits in California and other states.
Another remaining hang-up was over ensuring that Cerberus, the private equity firm that owns Chrysler LLC, would reimburse the government if the auto company defaulted on its loan, said a congressional negotiator who spoke only on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose details of the emerging deal.
Even if they seal the deal, though, conservative Republicans who want to force one or more of the Big Three into bankruptcy warned they might try to block the measure, virtually guaranteeing that it will need a 60-vote majority to pass and possibly delaying approval for days.

Tracking the Dow on Tuesday,09/12/08
8 market days to Quadraple Witching.
9:30am:--A 150.0 bearish gap down points.

Reports indicate that the White House and Congress are progressing toward a bailout of the automakers.
10:30am:--Bullish Harami gap covering.

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 75 basis points to 1.50%, which was larger than the 50 basis point cut that was expected.

11:30am:--Bearish engulfing.

Just hitting the wires, October pending home sales fell 0.7% month-over-month, which was better than the expected decline of 3.0%. September was revised to a drop of 4.3% from a decline of 4.6%.

12:30pm:--Bearish spin with technical rebound.

The Nasdaq rebounds into positive ground as tech (+1.8%) outperforms.The White House is still working on the auto legislation that was submitted yesterday.

1:30pm:--Hammering at session low.

Walt Disney (DIS 24.08, -0.84) drops to session lows after the company said it was a tough fall season for their broadcasting segment, which will be reflected in advertising revenues.

2:30pm:--Bullish harami.

Goldman Sachs (GS 73.63, -3.52) had its fourth quarter earnings per share estimate slashed to a loss of $3.86 from a loss of $0.65 at Deutsche Bank, which cited increased concern over losses related to real estate.

3:30pm:--Bearish spin at day's low.

A panel that oversees the Treasury's $700 billion financial relief fund is expected to release a report Wednesday that is critical of the government's handling of the program.

4:00pm:--A bullish harami.

Crude prices fall to session lows as pit trading comes to a close. Prices are now down 3.9% to $41.99 per barrel.

The overall December candlestick has now transformed into a bullish dragonfly doji.

Tuesday's candle is struggling at this month Bull Pivot and the pair looks like a bearish harami.

I think the market makers might sell on news on annoucement of the outcome of the bailout of the automakers.

So tighten the belt again for this roller coaster ride as the long lower shadow might be utilised.

Obama’s job- creation program

Obama spoke a day after a government report showed employers in the U.S. slashed 533,000 jobs last month, the biggest decline in 34 years. The losses are “another painful reminder of the serious economic challenge our country is facing,” Obama said.
The speech offered the first details of Obama’s job- creation program. He said the investment in infrastructure will be the largest since President Dwight D. Eisenhower created the interstate highway system a half-century ago.
Obama takes office as the 44th president on Jan. 20.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,05/12/08.
10 Days to QUADRAPLE WITCHING DAY.(dow index/options expiry)
9:30am:--A 100.0 point gap-down bearish start.
Moody's affirms Credit Suisse ratings, changes outlook to negative

10:30am:--Bearish engulfing.

Crude oil has pulled all the way back from its highs, made in overnight trade, at $44.47 to trade near the flat line; currently off 7 cents to $43.60.

11:30am:-- A double bottom.

Pessimism has been underpinned by the latest jobless data. November nonfarm payrolls fell 533,000, which was a steeper decline than the drop of 335,000 that was widely expected.

12:30pm:--A morning star.

Merrill Lynch stockholders approve transaction with Bank of America (MER) 11.91 .

Crude oil makes fresh lows at $41.84; currently off $1.62 to $42.05.

1:30pm:--Inverted bull hammer.

Central Bancorp receives $10 mln of new capital under U.S. Department of Treasury's TARP Capital Purchase Program (CEBK) 5.25 +0.49 :

2:30pm:--Bullish harami.

Old Line Bancshares receives $7 mln investment from U.S. Treasury (OLBK) 7.50 0.00

3:30pm:--Ascending soldier.

Crude oil sets fresh session low of $40.50 with minutes left in the session... currently -2.87 to $40.80 :
JP Morgan Chase to participate in FDIC programs (JPM) 33.47 +2.27 : Co announced that it has elected, on behalf of itself and its eligible depository institutions, to participate in both the FDIC Transaction Account Guarantee Program and Debt Guarantee Program.

4:00pm:--Closing near day's high with slight profit-taking.
The Dow is heading towards the bullish pivot breakout.The overall December candlestick pattern is currently a bearish hammer with a long tail shadow beneath which is the range of play in the event of any adverse geo-political news.

If a Dragon-fly Doji is being formed,the bulls will go on a rampage again right on time for the Christmas Day yuletide and an early year end bang with lots of fireworks.

Unaccounted bailout funds.

The government must toughen its monitoring of the $700 billion financial bailout to ensure that banking institutions limit their top executives' pay and comply with other restrictions, federal auditors said Tuesday in the first comprehensive review of the rescue package.
Auditors fault Treasury oversight of bailout funds.
The Treasury Department has no mechanism in place to track how institutions are using $150 billion in taxpayer money that the government injected into the banking system as of last month, the Government Accountability Office concluded in its report to Congress.

Tracking the Dow on 02/12/08.

15 days to Dow Index Expiry and Quadraple Witching Day.

9:30am:--A 50.0 points gain with shooting star.

U.S. automakers will go on Capitol Hill to outline a plan on how they would use a potential $25 billion loan.

10:30am:--Gap up fully filled and a spike up.

General Electric said its sees fourth quarter earnings per share of between $0.50 and $0.52, which is on the low end of its previous range of between $0.50 and $0.65.

11:30am:--Bullish spin at session high.

Ford has submitted its plan to the Senate Banking Committee outlining how the automaker would use a government loan. The company is asking for a $9 billion line of credit with a 10-year term, which Ford would use as a backstop if conditions worsen further.

12:30am:--Triple shooting stars.

Ford (F 2.80, +0.25) reported that U.S. November sales dropped 30.6% year-over-year, which was slightly better than the expected decline of 32%. Year-to-date, sales have declined 19.7%.

1:30pm:--Bearish hammer.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the United Auto Workers Union said GM may need funding by the end of the year to avoid bankruptcy.

2:30pm:--Double bottom bullish spin.

The weak General Motors (GM 4.42, -0.17) sales data and a report that the automaker may need to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection before Christmas is weighing on sentiment.

3:30pm:--Another spinning top.

Chrysler reported that November U.S. sales fell 47% year-over-year. Year-to-date, sales are down 28%.

4:00pm:--Last minute spike up with an inverted bullish hammer.

The stock market regained about 40% of yesterday's massive 8.9% sell-off.

The market seems to be not sustainable with the onslaught of many bad news in the auto industry.

Once the bulls have short-covered the whole of Monday's candlestick,we have to run for cover again before they set the bull trap again.

The Federal Reserve said due to the strains in the financial markets it will extend three liquidity facilities through April 30, 2009. The facilities aim to increase liquidity for asset backed commercial paper and financial firms.

China's rate cut.

China is scrambling to prop up its economy. The People's Bank of China made a 108-basis-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday after the markets closed, accelerating its recent policy of monetary loosening in the face of slowing exports and industrial production.
Earlier this week, the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in China to 7.5%, from 9.2%, though many economists expect an even slower rate of expansion, of anywhere between 2.0% and 7.0%.
China's benchmark rate now stands at 2.52%. The central bank also lowered its reserve requirements by 200 basis points for large banks and by 100 basis points for smaller banks on Wednesday.

Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,26/11/08.

Pivot Day of the Dow Index futures.

9:30am:--Nearly 200.0 points gap-down followed by a bullish spin.

President-elect Obama is scheduled to speak at another news conference today at 10:45 AM ET.

10:30am:--Bearish dark cloud.

Three economic reports hit the wires, including a larger-than-expected drop in durable goods orders.

11:30am:--2 Black crows.

There were 529,000 new unemployment claims for the week ended Nov. 22, which was slightly better than the expected reading of 535,000.

12:30pm:--Weak bulls holding on at session high.

October personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month (consensus +0.1%) and personal spending dropped 1.0% (consensus -1.0%). The PCE Deflator, an inflation measure, dropped 0.6%. Finally, October durable goods orders tumbled 6.2% (consensus -3.0%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 4.4% (consensus -1.6%).

1:30pm:--Bearish engulfing.

Just hitting the wires, the number of new home sales in October slipped 5.3% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000. This was worse than the expected reading of 444,000 and the lowest amount of sales since 1991.The November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading was revised down to 55.3 from 57.9. This was below the consensus estimate of 57.5.

2:30pm:--Ascending soldiers.

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker will head his new economic advisory board.

3:30pm:--Hangman at day's high.

Crude continues to rally, up 7.3% to $54.42 per barrel.

Buying interest in tech and automaker stocks helped reverse sentiment, sending stocks to their fourth consecutive gain.

4:00pm:--Closing at day's high with a hangman.

Caution ahead.
The indicies looks like at its turning point with a hammer warning.Profit taking may come in.

Investors on Wednesday snapped up tech stocks trading near their cheapest levels in five years, and renewed hopes of a General Motors bailout helped investors shrug off data depicting a worsening global economic downturn.

Looks like the speculators are back in action.Market seems to be positive whenever Obama is about to make any speeches.

More bank needs rescue.

The government has agreed to guarantee risky Citigroup debt valued at $306 billion and also pump another $20 billion in cash into the ailing bank, on top of an earlier $25 billion injection that was part of the government's initial round of investments.

Still, many hard questions remain over the Citigroup bailout, including whether or not the nation's former No. 1 bank will need to need even more government money; how many losses will eventually be taken on the $306 billion risky debt being guaranteed by the government; and how much debt of comparably poor quality is held by other banks.

In addition to Citigroup, the first batch of big banks that got capital from the government included JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. (which just bought Wachovia Corp.), Bank of America Corp. (which just bought Merrill Lynch), Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of New York Mellon and State Street.

Citigroup has more than $1.2 trillion in off-balance sheet assets - mostly complicated, structured debt products that it has yet to take actual losses on.

"The definition of 'too big to fail' is changing all the time''

Tracking the Dow On Monday,24/11/08.

9:30am:--A 150.0 points gap-up with an early half gap cover.

The big news this morning is that Citigroup (C) will be receiving government guarantees, liquidity access and capital.

10:30am:-- Dark cloud cover.

Just hitting the wires, October existing home sales fell 3.1% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted annual basis to 4.98 million, which is close to the consensus estimate of 5.00 million.

11:30am:--Shooting Star.

The major indices trade near session highs, benefiting from relief over the Citigroup (C 6.31, +2.54) bailout out and short-covering.

12:30pm:--Bullish engulfing at MAV.

Oil prices have surged 7.6% to $53.73 per barrel and gold prices are up 4.2% $825.30 per ounce.

Shares of Citi are up 59%, with other financial names such as Morgan Stanley (MS 13.50, +3.45) and Merrill Lynch (MER 10.65, +2.31) also getting a nice boost.

1:30pm:--Bearish doji.

Obama is currently participating in a question and answer session.Obama said the country needs a "big" stimulus package, but did not give a specific number.

2:30pm:--Index spike to session high with another bearish engulfing.

Tomorrow, investors will digest the preliminary third quarter GDP report at 8:30 AM ET and November consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET

3:30pm:--Bullish spike up near end trading day with bearish hangman.

Commodities rallied 5.4% as oil prices spiked 9.1% to $54.48 per barrel and gold rose 4.0% to $823.70 per ounce. The strength in the stock market and a 2.4% decline in the dollar fueled the buying interest.

4:00pm:--An end day shooting star with breakaway bears closing with hangman.

The follow through session may got hanged again.
Monday's candlestick touches this month MAV and started off within the neckline.It's about to get some new breadth hopefully it does not bow down again.

President-elect Obama unveiled his economic team, confirming that New York Fed President Tim Geithner is the Treasury Secretary nomination.It's the sign of his first move in action.

Psychofinancial bind

Plummeting markets can seize hold of your personality, internalizing behavior that can control your investing decisions for years to come.
"smart money" have almost no discipline about selling stocks. They make most of their decisions unconsciously and often don't know why they really bought or sold a particular stock. Most professional money managers unconsciously create patterns of behavior where wrong deed feeds upon wrong deed.
This is one of the reasons why so few active stock pickers can beat the market. According to Standard & Poor's, global and domestic stock funds fail to beat the market 70% of the time. We're just not wired for investing. We don't control it, it controls us.
You're only safe,if "you have a clear philosophy and approach to your investing and have built rigor, process and discipline to implement it. Then you'll understand that at times what you do will be out of favor but you'll remain committed to something bigger than you are that you know has validity."
Market losses affect the brain in the same way excrement or a foul smell does. We recoil without thinking, as if we're confronted with a disgusting and possibly harmful physical presence. This reaction stems from our unconscious desire to immediately end the pain.
"The experience of losing $1 is three times more emotionally impacting than the experience of winning $1,"If it goes up $3, but then drops $1 from its high before we sell it, we feel pain even though we're able to sell at a profit. That $2 net gain just isn't enough.
"Investors are also reluctant to accept and realize losses because the very act of doing so proves that their first judgment was wrong. Investors who accept losses can no longer prattle to their loved ones, 'Honey, it's only a paper loss. Just wait. It will come back.'" This is the classic behavior of the problem gambler who wants another spin at the roulette table because the only sure path to not recouping losses is to leave the table.

Tracking the Dow on Friday,21/11/08.

DOW FUTURES EXPIRY DAY.

9:30am:--A 100.0 points gap up followed by a shooting star.

Dell (DELL) posted better-than-expected earnings per share results for the third quarter.

10:30am:--A bottom spin.

Honda Motor (HMC) is cutting production at some of its global factories.

11:30am:--Breakaway ascending bull.

Crude oil futures have rebounded 2.5% to $50.65 per barrel early on.

12:30pm:--Ascending soldiers with a shooting star.

GE is in talks with the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. regarding possible joint investments.

1:30pm:--Bearish inverted hammer.

Citi is reportedly weighing strategic options regarding its future, but claims it wants to keep itself together.

2:30pm:--Bearish graveyard doji.

Chicago Fed President Evans stated that growth is likely to be quite sluggish through much of 2009 as the U.S. faces a protracted period of weak growth.

3:30pm:--A sudden bull spike up.

Ford Motor (F 1.25, -0.14) is having its bank apply for Federal Reserve membership in order to obtain FDIC insurance, Reuters reported.General Motors (GM 2.68, -0.20), GMAC, submitted an application to be granted bank status.

4:00pm:--Unshaven bull spike with a shooting star/graveyard doji.

A last one hour into trading spike is too artificial.It's just a short-covering of position on index expiry day.
Friday's candlestick resembles a bullish hammer.Looks like goin' to be a bull-trap.The bulls can't survive at the bear pivot border line.

Disaster will strike again.

Investors got a little bit of clarity regarding the future face of the Treasury team; President-Elect Obama has nominated New York Fed President Geitner for Treasury Secretary. Obama is expected to announce the rest of his economic team Monday.

The world follows.

Overseas stock markets fell sharply Thursday, taking a cue from Wall Street, as investors remained anxious about the grim outlook for the global economy and corporate profits.
The market is fearful of the fallout from the credit crisis and the global economic slowdown
The sinking Titanic has caused those on board including the captain of the financial market like Nikkei and HangSeng to dive into the mighty ocean.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,19/11/08

Two days to Dow Index Expiry.

9:30am:--A mild open with shooting star.

Chrysler testified before the Senate Banking Committee in an attempt to secure government loans for the struggling automakers.

10:30am:--A double top.

October CPI fell 1.0% month-over-month, which was a larger-than-expected decrease compared to consensus estimate of -0.8%

11:30am:--Bears Hammer.

U.S. automakers are currently testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, which follows their appearance before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday.

12:30pm:--Small body Bulls engulfing.

A mild technical rebound.The latest new residential construction data fell to the lowest levels on record, and provide another weak point for GDP calculations.

1:30pm:--Bearish hammer.

The FOMC will release the minutes for its Oct. 29 meeting in about thirty minutes.

2:30pm:--Bears at session low.

Citigroup (C 6.45, -1.91) tumbled 23% to its lowest level since 1995. Citi said it will buy the remaining $17.4 billion in structure investment vehicles it advised.

3:30pm:--Graveyard Dojis.

For 2008, the Fed expects the economy will grow between 0.0% and 0.3%, down sharply from its previous forecast of 1.0% to 1.6%. The 2009 forecast now calls for growth between -0.2% and 1.1%, down from the previous forecast of 2.0% to 2.8%. The Fed also raised its unemployment forecast.The minutes hinted at the likelihood of further monetary easing, as some FOMC members saw potential for further rate cuts.

4:00pm:--A small morning star closing at day's low.
So they have completed last week Thursday whole candlestick,top and bottom.It's roll-over day.

Can they bring it up again this Thursday?

Maybe yes.

An individual success.

As the values of real estate, stocks, and bonds evaporate, people seem to be questioning whether investing time and money in a college degree is worthwhile. The answer, it turns out, is pretty clear: A wide variety of studies show that, on average, college pays off in financial and nonfinancial ways. But some college graduates--especially those who attend low-quality institutions or take worthless courses--will be below that average and might very well be wasting their time and money. Those who are lucky, smart, and diligent enough to attend high-quality colleges and earn in-demand degrees will be far more likely to reap big rewards.
Is it the person and not the degree?
Many of the doubters argued that successful people will be successful with or without a degree. College graduates typically only earn more because, on average, smarter people attend college, they said. Bill Gates and many other wealthy dropouts have shown that it's the person, and not the degree, that determines success, they said.
So, even if you don't happen to need a degree to get a good paycheck or to think big thoughts, your life will be better if lots of people around you graduate.
Tracking the Dow on Monday,17/11/08.

4-days to Dow Futures Expiry.

9:30am:--Mild gap-down.

Just hitting the wires, October industrial production rose by 1.3% after falling 3.7% in September. Economists expected an increase of 0.2%. Capacity utilization was 76.4% in October, a slight dip from utilization of 76.5% in September. Economists expected utilization of 76.5%.

10:30am:--Breakaway bull.

Japan officially fell into a recession for the first time since 2001, joining the Eurozone.

11:30am:--Bullish dragonfly doji.

There continues to be speculation regarding government intervention to aid General Motors (GM 3.31, +0.30), Ford (F 1.76, -0.04) and Chrysler. GM told federal officials that a bankruptcy filing would result in a chain reaction that would damage suppliers and dealers, The Wall Street Journal reported.Economic concerns continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

12:00pm:--Shooting star.

The bulls try to look past economic concerns and more job cuts.Separately, the G-20 summit did not produce any agreements that would alter the near-term picture in any meaningful way.

1:30pm:--Bearish harami.

Reuters reports that a Democratic leadership aide said the U.S. Senate is unlikely to pass a broad economic stimulus this year.

2:30pm:--A morning star followed by graveyard doji.

Crude oil prices fall to session lows, currently down 3.4% at $55.10 per barrel.Bloomberg reported that the Bush administration will not seek the remaining $350 billion from the $700 billion financial rescue plan, and will leave it to the Obama administration.

3:30pm:--Graveyard doji.

In corporate news, Citigroup (C 8.87, -0.65) announced plans to slash as many as 52,000 jobs from its workforce, which totaled 352,000 at the end of the third quarter, in an effort to cut costs due to the financial market turmoil.

4:00pm:--Three black crows.

Mission accomplish cleaning the mess.Look for futures index roll-over rebound.

Who says the Dow is not being manipulated.

See picture how they cover back the Thursday candlestick body taking two solid day to clear the carcass.

Time for the gravediggers to become pall-bearers leading the procession again.

Stimulate and boost economy.

Their first step is raising government spending as the credit crunch delays the effect of recent interest rate cuts. G-20 countries including the U.K., Japan, China and Germany are rolling out stimulus packages. Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. are signaling they will enact a second round of stimulus legislation.

The IMF will have a role, along with the Financial Stability Forum in conducting ``early warning exercises'' and issuing joint risk assessments of financial markets, the two organizations said yesterday. The FSF includes officials from the Group of Seven nations along with Australia, Singapore, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

G-20 members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union.

The Netherlands and Spain are also represented, as are the IMF, World Bank, and United Nations.

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso's office said his government will offer up to $100 billion in lending to the IMF at the summit and ask other nations to give further resources.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,14/11/08.

5 days to Dow Futures Expiry.
9:30am:--A 100.0 points skid with a bullish bottom spin.

Retailers continue to expect a weak holiday shopping season;Citi is laying off at least 10,000 employees starting this week.

10:30am:--Gap fully filled.

October import prices were down 4.7% month-over-month, exceeding the 4.4% downturn that was widely expected.

11:30am:--Bearish Engulfing.

Fed Chairman Bernanke stated in a prepared speech regarding coordination among central banks that financial turmoil was the product of a global credit boom, and monetary policy actions have not resolved the ongoing strains in financial markets. He also stated that continuing volatility of markets and recent indicators of economic performance confirm that challenges remain.

12:30pm:--Bullish Engulfing.

September business inventories were down 0.2%, which is below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline.The drop in oil has caused considerable weakness in the energy sector (-4.3%).
The White House said it is talking to Congress about accelerating the $25 billion auto loan package that was already appropriated, Reuters reports.

1:30pm:--A bullish inverted hammer.

In economic data, October import prices were up 6.7% year-over-year, missing the consensus of an 8.2% year-over-year increase.Division among congressional officials continues to ensnare possible plans that will provide federal aid to automakers. Recent reports indicate a test vote is expected next week.

2:30pm:--Bullish hammer at the 2nd attempt near the opening.

Treasury Secretary Paulson recently stated that the major purpose of the TARP was to stabilize the financial system and get lending going. He noted that it is highly likely there will be another capital program within the current $700 billion plan. Paulson also stated that he thinks the system has clearly been stabilized. The stock market may not entirely agree, though, considering the persistence of volatility in the major indices.

3:30pm:--Bears on rampage.

Paulson spoilt the party.Trading remains volatile as investors continue looking for a bottom amid ongoing uncertainty in financial markets and global economic conditions. However, if anything is certain at this point, the bottom won't be marked by a clear V-shape.

4:00pm:--Bearish spin at day's bottom.

The usual Friday unwinding position ahead of weekend.
Friday's candlestick pattern has closed nearly half the body of Thursday and left with a small lower shadow.The Bear Pivot has been penetrated and any pullback will be covering back the green portion.

A rebound will be in store to set the stage for another bulltrap ahead of the CPI and Housing Starts figure next Thursday.

Another volatile session ahead.

Lame Duck.

President Bush is currently on the lame-duck status with two months left in office and with a departing administration.Hardly can he deliver any goodies if he were to meet world leaders at the weekend economic summit.

Tracking the Dow on Tuesday,11/11/08.
9:30am:--180.0 points gap-down.
Economic concerns weigh on sentiment.
A bearish hammer follow suit.
10:30am:--Hangman Dojis.
Crude prices are down 4.1% to $59.81 per barrel, which is weighing on energy stocks (-3.7%).
Several notable companies had their earnings estimates slashed this morning.
11:30am:--Technical rebound.
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL 18.48, -0.47) said revenue fell 41% year-over-year.
12:30pm:--Bullish engulfing.
Market breadth is bearish. Decliners outpace advancers by 20-to-3 on the NYSE.
1:30pm:--Bears holding at day's low.
Sellers continue to outpace buyers. In a half-hour, the government will outline a new mortgage relief plan, according to reports.
2:30pm:--Ascending soldiers peak.
Stocks recover some ground after CNBC reported that BlackRock's (BLK 113.07, -2.48) vice chairman said the $30 billion Bear Stearns mortgage portfolio is generating better cash flows than the market price implies. BlackRock is managing the $30 billion in assets that the Federal Reserve assumed following the collapse of Bear Stearns.
3:30pm:--Bearish harami after mortgage plan news.
Government officials outlined a new mortgage modification plan for loans held by GSEs Fannie Mae (FNM 0.69, -0.03) and Freddie Mac (FRE 0.84, -0.04). The program targets the highest risk borrower who has missed three payments or more, owns and occupies the property as a primary residence and has not filed for bankruptcy. The borrower's loan payment will then be modified to be affordable, which the FHFA defined as no more than 38% of total monthly gross income.
4:00pm:--Bearish spin beneath the MAV

Tuesday's candlestick is a typical bear hammering a downtrend.
Consumer spending worries send stocks lower for the day.

Why choose TUESDAY voting?

The short answer:
The U.S.A used to be a nation of farmers.
The long answer:
Congress chose November because the harvest was over and the weather wouldn't be bad enough to prevent people from traveling. As for Tuesday, people used to have to travel overnight to their polling location. (In 1845, horse was the preferred method of transport.) In an effort to avoid religious days of rest, Congress chose Tuesday, leaving Monday and Wednesday as travel days.
Tuesday was voting (and horse-resting) day.
My conclusion:
So the Federal Reserve & Treasury Secretary has harvested all the financial gains from the world stock markets by giving misleading news and now washing their hands for the handover to a new President elect.Hence the tremendous harvest they have garnered in the Evil month of October are now in their coffers for an early retirement plan.That's their financial planning.

Whereas in the stock market jungle Tuesday is a day of high volatily and big swing before the market find its exact direction in the Mid-Week(Wednesday).I have noted this in the index futures all this while presumably an international standard set by those rogue funds swarming around the glode."Birds of all feathers flock together"
Tracking the Dow on Tuesday 04/11/08 (US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DAY)
9:30am:--Hefty 180.0 points gap-up.
Credit markets continue to show improvements. Interbank dollar lending, known as Libor, declined across all terms and the TED Spread is down 20 basis points to 2.22%.
10:30am:--Ascending soldiers.
September factory orders fell 2.5% month-over-month after dropping 4.3% in August. The results were worse than the 0.8% decline that was expected.
11:30am:--Bearish pullback.
Stocks and commodities rally to session highs while the dollar tumbles to session lows.Dallas Fed President Fisher, who has been an inflation hawk, said the market crisis has arrested inflation momentum.
12:30pm:--Bears in control.
In economic news, market participants shrugged off negative factory orders data.
1:30pm:--Shooting Stars.
Crude prices spike higher, now up 11.5% to $70.63 per barrel.
2:30pm:--Bearish engulfing.
Index is pulling back to MAV before another bullish rebound.
3:30pm:--The Saints came marching in.
Commodities rallied 5.3% as the dollar tumbled 1.8% against a basket of world currencies.
The Volatility Index, which is considered the "fear index", declined 11%.
4:00pm:--Hangman & shooting star.
Profit taking might pursue.
The 52 weeks bear pivot is been penetrated and the indicies are aiming for the 52 weeks MAV but along the way obstacles on economic factors will seep in again.

Dow gearing up for festival of light.

Forget and leave behind the bad trails and treats of Halloween October.
Let's brighten our new beginning again in this month of the "Festival of Lights"
SAWAEE KRAB!
It's the LOY KRATHONG.(8th till 12th November 2008)
Loy Krathong takes place all over THAILAND at just about any source of water. People will go down to their local rivers or even ponds to float a small container which is traditionally made from banana leaves. In Thai, the word "loi" means to float. They will put a candle, incense sticks and often a few coins for good luck into their krathongs. They will then float this on the water asking for forgiveness from Mother Nature for polluting waterways. As they crouch there and watch their krathong float away under the gaze of the full moon, the Thai people believe that the krathong is also floating away their bad luck.
So in order to have a bullish Dow Index and months to come,let's meet in Bangkok which will be held along the banks of the Chao Phraya River, From Krungthep Bridge to the Rama VIII Bridge.
Also the main highlight is The "Loi Prateep" royal ritual performed in the royal court on the night of the full moon of the twelfth lunar month.A water-borne procession consisting of an impressive fleet of no less than five hundred illuminated vessels, each with two lit candles and an incense stick, being carried down-stream.

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Tracking the Dow on Halloween Day,31/10/2008
9:30am:--A mild gap up.
September personal income was up 0.2%, which is slightly better than the 0.1% increase that was expected.
10:30am:--Bearish harami.
An early low was formed followed by a bullish engulfing.Integrated oil company Chevron (CVX) also posted strong results that exceeded Wall Street's expectations.
11:30am:--Graveyard doji at session high.
Yahoo's interest in teaming up with Google stems from trying to improve its competitiveness in the Internet search category. However, if the deal is blocked by regulators.
12:30pm:--A spinning morning star.
Market participants received another dose of economic data this morning. The core PCE deflator was up 0.2%. Total PCE deflator was up 0.1%, as energy prices dipped. The numbers are likely to be lower in upcoming months. Additionally, the third quarter employment cost index provided good news from an inflation standpoint. With a softer labor market, there is reason to expect the favorable trend to persist in the fourth quarter.
1:30pm:--Bullish spike up followed by dark cloud cover.
Commodities are being hit with selling pressure, causing the energy sector (-0.6%) and the materials sector (-0.6%) to underperform. Much of the weakness in commodities is owed the confluence of recession-based fears and a rebound in the U.S. dollar.
2:30pm:--Graveyard doji seen.
Crude oil prices are spiking higher, though no news item seems immediately responsible for the climb. After being down as much as 4.3%, crude is now up more than 3% to above $68 per barrel.
3:30pm:--Bearish harami.
Stocks have encountered a bout of stiff selling pressure as traders head into the session's final stretch. Each of the major indices moved sharply off their session highs. Whether the session's gains completely roll over will only be seen in time. However, if gains are maintained, it will mark the first time the stock market registered advances for two consecutive sessions in over one month.
4:00pm:--Hangman with a technical rebound closing.
Can these be the bearish tri-star since it was formed at the top?
The attempt to close through the 52 weeks bear-pivot did not work out as yet.If it happens,the bears will have to return back into the woods and stay put for the coming winter rather than going on a grizzly rampage in October and continuing its gnawling.

Halloween evils

Want something scarier than your average costume this Halloween? Then how about an “evil” Hank Paulson or Ben Bernanke mask? (Suitcases of money not included).

The Fed chief appeared to leave the door open to additional "carnage".It's still dark inside so the room for stimulation is not there yet.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting, singing a song of his own individual professional conflict between values and popularity:
***There are worse things I could do

***Than lower an interest rate or two ...
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,29/10/08.

(2 Days to Halloween)
9:30am:--80.0 points gap-down.

Cautious ahead of the FOMC announcement at 2:15 PM ET.

10:30am:--The top.

September durable goods orders rose 0.8%, better than the expected decline of 1.1%.

11:30am:--Bearish engulfing.

The Department of Energy just reported that crude oil inventory levels for the week ended rose 493,000 barrels, which was smaller than the expected increase of 1.6 million.Crude prices were up 6.4% to $66.70 per barrel just prior to the release.

12:30pm:--Shooting stars sideway movement near top.

General Motors (GM 6.53, +0.28) may ask for help in turning around its business from Toyota Motor (TM 72.33, +1.35), Dow Jones reports, citing a Kyodo News report. Toyota may buy assets, help secure funding and/or expand business partnerships, according to the report. Earlier today GM said sales in the third quarter fell 11.4% year-over-year.

1:30pm:--Another shooting star.

Stocks trade near session highs with the FOMC set to make its policy announcement in about 15 minutes. A 50 basis point cut to 1.50% is widely expected.

2:30pm:--Helicopter Ben completed his nagging.

A 50 basis point fed funds rate cut.The FOMC said the pace of economic activity appears to have slowed "markedly," noting a decline in consumer spending. Meanwhile, business equipment spending and industrial production have weakened in recent months, and slowing foreign economies may hurt U.S. exports. The Fed also believes the financial market turmoil will pressure spending.

3:30pm:--Spike up to day's high with multiple hammers.

As is typically the case, the stock market trades in a volatile fashion following the FOMC policy announcement after traders have digested the news.Now they are vomitting it out.

4:00pm:--Bearish haramis.

Late-session surge made in the final hour following an FOMC rate cut was reversed in the final minutes of trade after headlines hit the wires that raised concerns regarding General Electric's (GE 19.20, -0.29) revenue in 2009.
The Halloween shooting star looks dangerous as it did not really penetrate the MAV line.

The Dow Futures this Thursday morning is 200 points up which might be baiting the Asian market.

These two evil carnival are trying to suck blood again.