Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Wall Street Halloween Scare Tactics.

The month of October has long been associated with all manner of things spooky. Children and adults alike enjoy the holiday at the end of the month as a time to decorate yards and houses with frightful images and dress up as ghosts and vampires to create a scary environment for Halloween.
This year the mainstream press, government officials and even the Fed have gone out of their way to bring us a scary dose of Halloween well ahead of the traditional Oct. 31.
Examples of the super-concentrated scare tactics that have been employed to frighten the public out of its collective wits are the nearly ceaseless talk of the housing slowdown and how this will supposedly ruin the U.S. homeowner/consumer and eventually lead to a major economic recession. Headlines underscoring this persistent propaganda are too numerous to mention, as you can easily see this for yourself by merely picking up today's newspaper.
Then there is the growing talk of an economic recession followed by a bear market in the U.S. stock market, culminating with a global economic recession. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently gotten on board the bearish bandwagon by releasing a report warning that the risk of a global financial crash is increasing.

One of the most simplified statements designed to give the retail investor an early scare ahead of Halloween is this headline from the Financial Times of Sept. 27: "Bear market has begun." It doesn't get more direct than that!

But the granddaddy of the major news wire stories by far was the MSN news headline of Oct. 5: "Is a Global Crash Coming? (Report warnings world's economy is at risk)." Now anyone who has ever worked for or studied the media knows that stories that evoke negative emotions such as fear, anger or outrage are the ones that sell the most to the public. While it may be tempting to dismiss such alarmist news articles as typical media sensationalism the stories that attempt to forecast financial conditions for the general public have an uncanny tendency to be inaccurate. This is especially true whenever a "crash" or financial crisis prediction shows up in the headlines.
There is, of course, a method to the media's madness in starting rumors of financial crises and economic recessions. After all, most if not all major media outlets are owned by the same consortium of multinational corporations with holdings by large banking concerns. As far as the major headlines go, the press is the mouthpiece of these entities and will print only what they are told to print. And the only reason for leading the public along the gloom and doom path is to set up a bull market.
Here's how the game is played:
The bearish headlines scare
the public into either selling stocks or at least staying on the sidelines until they are led to re-enter the market by the media once again. The purpose of this is to allow the insiders to wrap up their accumulation campaign.Once the campaign is complete and the next major bull market gets going the public will gradually be lured back into the market with a spate of bullish stories by the very same press that warned them to stay away from the market a few months earlier.
Closer to the top, the press will pull out all the stops in an unmitigated attempt at sucking everyone into the bullish camp just as stock prices reach their peaks. By this time those same insiders who bought when the public was too afraid to buy have unloaded their holdings just in time for the peak The public is left holding the bag.
After the peak and during the early stages of the decline that follows, the public is told by the press not to worry ­ it's only a normal correction within a larger bull market. But within a few months it becomes apparent to all but the most naive that a bear market is underway, and with no hope of recovering their initial investments, the public starts selling heavily. This eventually gives way to the final wave of liquidation and the insiders start buying once again at bargain prices.
After the bottom is in the media begin another "sky-is-falling" campaign (long after the sky has already fallen, of course) to keep the public from getting any bright ideas about buying stocks on the cheap. This is a game reserved strictly for the insiders.
Every day it was more of the same: "Stocks are going higher; The economy has never been better; It's a 'new paradigm' for the global economy!" In total contrast to the climate of eight years ago, we're seeing much the opposite: "Global economic crisis on the horizon; Major crash is coming; The sky is falling!" Even the weather has been used this year to browbeat the public into staying bearish and fearful and to keep them from participating in the undervalued U.S. stock market. See the editorial cartoon above.
Contrary to what the media would have us believe, October is usually one of the best times of the year to buy undervalued tech stocks ­ something the insiders have been doing in droves.
Tracking the Dow Movement On Tuesday (30/10/07)
The Dow spike down at the opening bell,seems that those market makers set it at the MAV by setting the bull trap and completed their agenda in the last half hour of trading.The last minute white candlestick just managed to coverhalf body of the black candlestick.Seems that ongoing market not so promising.
It's a "Bearish Engulfing" pairs of candlestick.Are the market makers forseeing a bearish follow through?Well,unless the Fed chairman put on his Halloween attire then only the party will get rocking!

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Fed Halloween Decision-the masquerie trick!

SELL in May and go away. Comeback again on Leger Day
That bit of investor folklore lies near the heart of one of the latest market-timing strategies to capture public attention. It's an incredibly simple idea, involving just two moves a year: Sell all your stocks at the very end of April and reinvest the money on Oct. 31.
This is sometimes called the Halloween Indicator. Indeed, the concept has withstood a considerable amount of statistical scrutiny. A kind of hidden agenda in masquerie disguise.

Leger day refers to the St Leger horse race at Doncaster, which is normally held in the middle of September.Pic shows Frenchgate Ladies day at Doncaster Racecourse.

Halloween is historically the most profitable time of the year to put money into the stock market.
Stock market history has a way of repeating itself that can make for the easiest of outperformances.
Year in, year out, the best performing half of the year for shares almost anywhere in the world runs from November to April, and the worst from May to October.
Still, some researchers suspect that the indicator may be a statistical fluke. After all, they contend, many money managers program their computers to continually search history for price patterns, so it is quite likely that many of those turn out to be meaningless coincidences. Indeed, researchers often advise that we ignore patterns that aren't also found in other places and times.

Surprising consistency
Over the last 24 years, the UK stock market has risen 22 times from November to April, and fallen just twice.
From May to October it rose 12 times and fell 12. According to data compiled by stock market historian David Schwartz, the UK market managed double digit gains throughout the 1980s and 1990s almost entirely due to the gains piled on from November to April.
The summer months, on average, produced no gains at all.
See FTSE historic chart
The same is true in the US. Over the 50 years from 1924 to 2003, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has added a total 9,471.26 points from November to April and just 850.94 points in the rest of the year.
Moreover, the Halloween Indicator is not a modern phenomenon: It has been present in Britain, for example, since 1694.
Another way to guard against spurious price patterns is to find a plausible explanation for why an apparent pattern should exist in the first place.

In the case of the Halloween Indicator, Mr. Bouman and Professor Jacobsen have such an explanation. They have found that the magnitude of the Halloween Indicator in a given country is highly correlated to the length and timing of that country's average summer vacation.
How would that help explain the Halloween Indicator? Through extensive surveys, they found that many investors reduce their equity exposure before taking their summer holidays. Such selling puts a damper on the stock market's return during the summer months and the reinvestment provides an extra push in the fall.

Before selling all your stocks on April 30, remember that transaction costs and taxes can take a big bite out of the Halloween Indicator's advantage. That said, however, the pattern seems real, and might provide this general advice for investors:
If you are ready to invest in the stock market and are looking for the right time to do so, the Halloween Indicator suggests that autumn offers a better climate than the spring. Conversely, if you're going to be selling some stock, springtime is the most favorable season.
The increasing influence of Wall Street, which dominates almost every bourse across the globe, has put paid to any reasonable chance that September could regularly be a good month.
September is the end of the US mutual fund fiscal year and the last thing those institutions want is to put out annual reports showing they still hold positions in the year’s worst performing stocks.
So they turf out those losing shares in a price bonfire which almost always knocks September performances as a whole.
Indeed, so severe is the effect on prices from this selling process, that picking up last year’s losers on the cheap just as US institutions are ditching them and holding them for a year is a strategy which can produce spectacular performance.

October storms
October, a month of big storms and big market crashes in 1929, 1987, 1991,1997 and 2007 tends to be a volatile month too. It is only by November, when the markets are looking forward to the start of a new calendar year, that the reliably strong months begin.

What of Halloween?
According to Celtic legend, Halloween represents the time when the barrier between the spirit world and the material world is at its weakest.
Halloween – at least in its position in the ancient calendar - is an astronomical crossover, the halfway point between the solar equinox of equal length days and nights, and the winter solstice when night is at its maximum.
As a festival, it far predates the Christian All Saints day, November 1, and All Hallow’s Eve which refers to it.
The Irish Gaelic word for Halloween is "Samhain" (pronounced Sa-Wain), and that is now the modern Gaelic word for November. As the spirit world recedes at Halloween, perhaps we are being told which month to consider in the material one?


Tracking the Dow Movement On Monday (29/10/07)

Is the Fed gonna give the financial markets around the globe a Halloween TRICK or TREAT?That come Wednesday...the verdict!
A rate cut---the party keep rocking!The pumpkin will dance through the night.If he don't change his outfit for the halloween,well,the party will come to an abrupt halt.The last half hour of trading suggest that it's going to be bearish.Look at the 3-black crows that feed on the carcass.

The Monday candlestick was a weak bull out of exhaustion.Putting the candlestick pairs together,this is called the shooting-star.The end of the road.The sky is the limit.I have also track the USD/JPY currency and noticed that the $ has strengthen.Are the currency traders pretty aware something is amiss to maintain the $ strength?I have long 40 lots open position @ 114.69.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Countdown to Wednesday Fed rate decisions.

The market seems to be celebrating for a rate cut.But will the Fed bow to market demands?Recently released economic data and Fed officials have put up no road blocks to suggest otherwise.Will they still shift their focus from inflation fighting to confidence-boosting? The rate cut is not necessarily effective because "liquidity seeks out the inflating, not the deflating asset."

U.S. crude futures settled at a record $91.86 a barrel, up 1.5 percent, or $1.40, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, in electronic trading, oil reached a record high of $92.22, bumping up energy stocks.Will this create a cost push inflation which the Fed might be wary about?

Friday's market has been bolstered by Microsoft (NasdaqGS:MSFT - News)which lifted its full-year forecasts late on Thursday and reported quarterly profit that beat analysts expectations. Countrywide (NYSE:CFC - News), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, on Friday reported a quarterly loss, but it forecast a profit in the fourth quarter as it slashes jobs.

The bulls roared ferociously at the onslaught of the opening bell thereafter managed to maintain its run-up.I've notice a four-legged doji at 1:30pm followed by a gap down hammer. The day ended with also a "Four-legged Doji."Will the following session will be a repertoire of what happen at 1:30 pm.This four-legged frog can either leapt-up or downward at a terrible speed.So caution ahead of this big turning point! Frogs prefer in underground waters rather than dry lands.
With the USD being hammered to extreme lows of late,any further rates cut will further dampened its value.Investors around the financial globe are placing on big HOPES.The bearish piercing candlestick on Thursday was surprisingly followed by a bullish marubozu.Can this be a bull-trap?The intraday closing where the open,close,high & low are the same might cause a big tremor on Monday session!Furthermore Wednesday is the mid-session of the Dow Index Futures.(PiVot)

Friday, October 26, 2007

Recalling Fed Signals Interest Rates!

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers signaled they are in no hurry to reduce interest rates again because they aren't convinced the U.S. economic expansion is coming to an end.
The Federal Open Market Committee avoided foreshadowing its next move after lowering the benchmark rate on Sept. 18, minutes of the meeting. Officials didn't want investors to conclude extra cuts were guaranteed, the records said.
Economic reports since then have justified their caution: manufacturing and services industries continued to expand last month, while employment picked up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 3 percent to a record since the meeting.
Fed staff economists cut their estimate for fourth-quarter growth, the minutes said, while stopping short of predicting a recession. Three Fed bank presidents today and yesterday said credit market conditions have improved, yet remain fragile. Fed officials next meet Oct. 30-31.
``They can now afford to take their time, and gather more data,'' said Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management LLC in Paramus, New Jersey, and a former economist at the Fed's New York branch. ``Certainly, the sense of urgency is gone.''


Mortgages, Risk
The gap in interest rates between 30-year fixed-rate mortgages of $417,000 or less and 30-year ``jumbo'' loans of more than that amount fell to 78 basis points in the first week of October. That's down from 98 basis points last month, according to Bankrate.com. A year ago, the difference was 31 basis points, or 0.31 percentage point.
A Citigroup Global Markets index tracking risk spreads of sovereign bonds and other credit securities has dropped to 0.77 from 0.91 the day before to last month's Fed meeting. A reading of 1 indicates high risk aversion.
``There is not as much of the edginess of concern with the short-term funding markets,'' said James Caron, global head of interest-rate strategy at Morgan Stanley in New York. ``There is still room for an accident going forward.''
Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, said yesterday that liquidity constraints ``are gradually being resolved,'' although markets aren't back to ``business as usual.'' She made the comments at a speech in Los Angeles.
`Still Fragile'
St. Louis Fed chief William Poole said in a speech in his bank's home town that financial markets have stabilized, yet ``have not returned to normal and are still fragile.''
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, in his first speech since taking office in July, said while ``investors are not reassessing risk in a wholesale way,'' it will likely take ``some time'' for them to become more confident about assessing some types of securities.
Policy makers all concluded it was best to lower their benchmark rate by half a point to 4.75 percent, double the amount that most economists forecast, the minutes showed.
Yields on federal funds futures contracts show a 64 percent probability that Fed officials will leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged at this month's meeting.
Risks to Economy
``Further actions would depend on how economic prospects were affected by evolving market developments and by other factors,'' according to the records. Any statement on the balance of risks to the economy ``could give the mistaken impression that the committee was more certain about the economic outlook than was in fact the case.''
Fed officials continued to express concern about inflation, citing labor costs and a weaker dollar, the minutes showed. The currency fell to a record low of $1.4283 per euro on Oct. 1.
``Inflation risks could be heightened if the dollar were to continue to depreciate significantly,'' the minutes said.
The Fed's preferred price gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.8 percent in August from a year earlier, the third straight month within the 1 percent to 2 percent comfort range stated by several officials. Policy makers ``were a little more confident'' the decline ``would be sustained,'' the minutes showed.
Job Growth
The FOMC expressed some skepticism about Labor Department figures that showed the first decline in U.S. payrolls in four years. The August report was later revised to show a gain of 89,000 jobs, from the previous estimate of a 4,000 decline. Employers hired 110,000 in September.
``If no big shoe drops in the meantime, I think they will hold steady'' on Oct. 31, said former Dallas Fed president Robert McTeer. ``I think if they don't cut at the next meeting, they are through.''
Housing ``remained exceptionally weak,'' the minutes said, and ``the faster pace of foreclosures as subprime mortgage rates reset was also seen as posing a downside risk'' to residential real estate.
The Fed staff ``marked down'' their fourth-quarter economic growth forecast, and ``trimmed'' the 2008 outlook, the minutes said, without providing details.
``We do not know how financial markets will evolve, and we do not know how households and businesses will respond to financial developments,'' Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in a speech in Philadelphia last week. ``We will need to be nimble in adjusting policy to promote growth and price stability.''

Tracking the Dow on Thursday 25Oct2007.
There are noticeable advancing soldiers at 10:00am but were cornered badly till 2:00pm.Attempts to bring up the market were again met with strong resistance along the bumpy trail.Towards the half hour closing,the MAV was narrowly being bombarded but helicopter Ben gunship have a good aerial dogfight but have to retreat half-way again.The overall market seems to be not sustainable.
Behold guys!!!We are having Double Dojis which are black candlestick.Spinning and spinning and it's goin' to become gorggy.What happens if you have a heavy drinking session,well a hangover and u'll gonna drop dead onto your bed.
It's a "Matching Low Bullish".Caution...liquidate ,shoot at sight all positions and return to bunker.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Buffett urges caution on China stocks

Billionaire Warren Buffett said investors should be “cautious'' about China's stocks after the country's benchmark index more than doubled this year.
“We never buy stocks when we see prices soaring,'' Buffett said yesterday in Dalian, north-eastern China, where he is visiting a subsidiary of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. “We buy stocks because we're confident of the company's growth. People should be cautious when they see prices rising.''


Buffett has sold shares in PetroChina Co, which has risen 76% this year to become the world's second biggest company by market value. China's benchmark CSI 300 stock index has climbed 48% since May 17, when Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man, said there “must be a bubble''.
“Buffett is right about China stocks, whose valuations are too high,'' said Wang Zheng of Everbright Securities Co in Shanghai. “It doesn't make sense any more to still play in such a market. It's about time to pull out of it.''
Buffett said he was “appreciative'' of PetroChina's performance and that he was doubtful he could find another stock like it. Berkshire owned more than 10% of PetroChina's publicly held shares as of the end of last year. It owned 3.1% of the publicly held shares as of Sept 30, according to disclosures. The company has sold all of its holding, Buffett said in a Fox Business Network interview on Oct 18.
Buffett, 77, and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, transformed the company over four decades from a failing textile maker into a US$200bil investment and holding company with businesses ranging from ice cream and underwear to insurance and corporate jet leasing. His investments are followed worldwide. The company's stock has risen 16% this year.
Buffett said he was seeking to invest in large Asian companies with businesses he understood. He denied Chinese media reports that Berkshire had invested in China Life Insurance Co.
Only qualified investors can trade in Chinese shares on the mainland. Some companies, such as PetroChina, trade in Hong Kong and can be bought and sold by any investor.
“If you understand a business and buy at a reasonable price, there's no risk,'' Buffett said. “We've never realised a loss because we understand the businesses that we buy into.''



Tracking the Dow on Wednesday(24/10/07)---Mid-week(pivot)
Overnight spinning top at the close really cost the bull to topple over this mornin' and has to seek physician treatment before conditions stabilised between 11:15am till 2:15pm.At the close,2 powerful advancing soldier with a small bearish inverted hammer...a temporary pause before it move forward further.
These pair of candlestick,bullish engulfing!!!
A "dragonfly doji" on Wednesday depicted that the bulls have overwhelm the bears.The closing above the MAV line is forward looking.In the event of bearish reversal,the long shadow (tail) of the dragonfly candlestick will be filled so it will be ranged bound only.http://www.litwick.com/indicators/1110.html

Another mid-week panic by Merill Lynch report.


Merrill Lynch & Co., the U.S. securities firm that pushed into subprime lending last year, will add about $2.5 billion of writedowns to the $5 billion it disclosed earlier this month, the New York Times reported.

Merrill, the third-biggest securities firm, is the only one of Wall Street's five largest to report a loss from the credit contraction. Investor flight from subprime mortgage bonds and related debt left the company with inventories of loans and securities that had to be written down to depressed market prices.

``The news report on Merrill Lynch caused risk reduction, triggering stock sales and the unwinding of the yen carry trade
In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the borrowing and lending rate. The risk is that currency moves erase those profits.
Japan's interest rate of 0.5 percent is the lowest among major economies and compares with a key rate of 8.25 percent in New Zealand and 5.75 percent in the U.K. South Africa's borrowing costs are 10.5 percent.
Yuan Advances Past 7.5 for First Time Since End of Dollar Link
Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, said yesterday the yuan may quadruple in the next decade.
The yuan is ``the best currency to buy right now,'' Rogers told investors in Amsterdam, adding that he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and into yuan. China is ``going to be the most important country in the 21st century.''
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said a call for faster yuan gains was the ``biggest change'' in the communique after the G-7 met in Washington on Oct. 19.
China should allow the yuan to rise faster in the short term, and let markets set the currency's value in the medium term. China must also become less reliant on exports and heavy industry, he said in a conference speech in Washington.

Premier Wen Jiabao said in September that China's top priority was to prevent the economy from overheating. Consumer prices rose 6.5 percent in August from a year earlier, twice the central bank's target. The nation has built up $1.4 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves while managing its currency to keep exports competitive.
Tracking the Dow Movement on Tuesday 23/10/2007
Overnight spillover of bulls lasted for about an hour of trading before it was wipe-off totally again by 11:15am.Seems that profit-taking has been a norm at this time of hour for the DJIA where the currency market also react in tandem with it.
At the close noticed a doji-star spinning on top of the bulls head!It might have a hangover and drop immobilised tomorrow.Just a little bit of migraine and headache.Should be able to be back on its footing again after swallowing its bitter pill.
well,these pair of double white candlesticks looks promising for a bullish market but I don't quite like the long shadows(tail) of both the candlestick.They can be depicted as "hammers" & "hangman" So I predict we are going to have a rough ride through the market square these few days.But the bulls are still holding to its horns.


This Day in History, October 24
On October 24th, 1929, "Black Thursday" marked the beginning of the Wall Street Crash of 1929.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

China Stock Market-the economic powerhouse.


During the rule of Chairman Mao Zedong till his death in 1976,the People's Republic of China was in economic chaos and cultural confusion.In the name of "progress,"the political system has subjected hundreds of millions of people to the trials of the GREAT LEAP FORWARD,(ie:establishment of special communes in the countryside through usage of collective labours and mass mobilization) and the CULTURAL REVOLUTION.(ie:the struggle for power within the communist party of China).The Chinese were very poor,tired,and disillusioned having been emotionally and psychologically wounded by the two revolutions.

The Architect of China's Reforms and Opening up frontiers.

In the 1980s,Deng Xiaoping,the capitalist gained control of the Chinese communist party. Deng Xiaoping recognized China’s salvation not in increased government control but in liberal economic reforms. Theoretical communism, Deng could clearly see, was failing worldwide. Nonetheless, it is remarkable that Deng courageously chose to muddle economic and political concepts to coax his own Party on to the path of self-inflicted destruction. Indeed, his view of what good government entails can be summed up by the metaphor he coined, “It doesn’t matter whether it’s a black cat or a white cat; so long as it catches mice, it is a good cat.” That cat as it turned out, was capitalism, prosperity its prey.

For Deng, the economic picture was becoming clear: capitalist countries were ascendant. To achieve his goals of reform, Deng promoted market modernization and played down the ideology of class struggle. Market innovation started from the countryside. Under regulation called “house responsibility system,” the central government allowed farm families to engage in private enterprise with surplus yields, previously illegal in the Communist state. This incentive-based system worked, bringing in record harvests in 1982, 1983, and 1984 for grain, cotton, and other crops. Furthermore, it encouraged farmers to be entrepreneurs in other aspects of their lives. Private markets emerged, and rural towns became centers of commerce and trade. In fact, these rural businesses became the fastest growing sector of China’s economy, growing at a rate of 20 to 30 percent per year. In January of 1983, the People’s Daily declared, “The people’s commune in the old sense no longer exists.” By 1987, over half the rural economy consisted of nonagricultural activities. Villages were prospering.
Meanwhile, the necessary reforms in the cities made life more difficult for many urban dwellers used to the communal system. Communism guaranteed jobs for life, essentially free lunch for life. The government made efforts to deregulate the labor markets, ending the “iron rice bowl” of guaranteed employment in 1981 and encouraging the unemployed to start small businesses such as restaurants and hair salons. Even so, productivity growth and increasing domestic demand for goods led to rapid inflation. The unemployed fell on hard times. The government’s proposed solution was bonuses, which it financed by printing money and thus exacerbating the inflation all the more. By 1988 China was experiencing the worst inflation since the founding of the Communist state, reaching a scorching 26 percent. Sensing growing unease in the cities, the government tried to tame inflation by slowing growth— cutting oil and coal production, capital construction, and defense spending. This sudden contraction in the economy, however, caused prices of grain to fluctuate, as demand dwindled and supply remained high, angering rural farmers. Meanwhile, urban workers continued to be laid off. Adding fuel to the fire, government corruption stirred public discontent. Some corrupt Party members, lured by easy money, took advantage of the darker side of free enterprise taking root throughout China.

In 1987, some 150,000 Party members were punished for corruption or abuse of authority. The Party dismissed over 25,000 of these alleged abusers. Half of all enterprises and 80% of individual entrepreneurs were avoiding taxes. Children and relatives of Party leaders used special contacts to monopolize control of companies. In 1989, a disenfranchised urban class, a slowing economy, and mounting inflation, mixed with an impression of government ineptitude, led to tragedy in Tiananmen Square.
Viewed from another perspective, the masses had grown impatient with the fragile process of economic reform. The farmers had tasted capitalism, and wanted to hold on to it, desperately. The city dwellers had eyed the improvements in the rural countryside with envy. They demanded more of the government, too much and all at once.

Deng’s authorization of military force seared the image of hapless, dissatisfied students pitched against a brutal regime into television sets and memories the world over: How could such a brutal government ever hope to emerge on the world’s economic stage?
At least in the short run, Tiananmen Square impeded democracy more than it promoted it. Following the spring of 1989, Beijing embraced self-preservation at the expense of further reform. Zhao Ziyang, a key official responsible for much of the economic progress during the 1980s, was fired for allowing the escalation that led to Tiananmen. Deng’s image suffered immensely, both domestically and internationally. The Party began to censor communications technology more than ever. As fax technology played such a key role in uniting international dissidents with students in the logistical planning of the Tiananmen Square protests, the Party became especially wary of communication with the outside world—cautiousness evident even today with how the Party is dealing with companies such as Google and Internet bloggers. China's Ministry of Public Security employs more than 30,000 people to monitor the Internet for anti-government ideas. This suspicion has hampered China’s emergence into the world’s economy, an economy increasingly dependent on electronic exchanges and instant communication.
Additionally, the success of the government military retaliation and the sustained unity of the Communist Party through the ordeal made the Party confident that suppression by force could be used. This precedent became the model for how the Party would respond to the formation of the Chinese Democratic Party in 1998 and the religious cult Falun Gong, which emerged in 1999.
Despite the setbacks, under the leadership of Deng’s successors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, the national transformation continued. In 2000, the US Congress approved permanent-normal-trade-relations [PNTR] status with China. In December of 2001, after fifteen years of negotiation, China joined the World Trade Organization. Formerly known as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the WTO aims to increase trade among its member nations by reducing trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas. To gain membership China had to make tariff reductions on information technology products, chemicals, automobiles, wood, paper products, and many agricultural goods.

By 2003, China’s economy was growing close to 10 percent per year. It had become an economic powerhouse and a major force in world diplomacy. The average per capita income reached US$1,200, creating a middle class by purchasing parity standards, of 470 million people. This population is the largest middle class in any country in the world and it is still growing today. An excellent illustration of China’s growth is its market for cars. Car sales in China are increasing at an annual rate of more than 50 percent.

In the first quarter or 2003, Volkswagen (VLKAY.PK) sold more vehicles in China than it did in Germany. In a trend that might make Mao roll in his grave, General Motors (GM) sells luxury Buick sedans to Communist Party officials and executives. With China emphasizing roads rather than railways to open its western frontier, the market for trucks and buses will only increase. China already accounts for a quarter of the worldwide demand for trucks. Another way to measure China’s economic growth is oil consumption. A net exporter as recently as 1993, China is now the fastest growing consumer of oil in the world.

The International Energy Agency in Paris estimates that by 2030 China will import as much oil as the United States does now. To reduce its dependence on the Middle East, the central government has increased efforts to find oil and natural gas along China’s continental shelf. In the deserts of the western Xinjiang province a consortium of domestic and foreign energy companies is spending $3.3 billion to develop gas fields and another $5.2 billion for a pipeline from Xinjiang to Shanghai. Agreements have been made with Australia, Indonesia, and Russia to obtain oil and natural gas, and in 2003 China’s offshore oil company CNOOC (CEO) announced it would buy a $615 million stake in an immense oil field in the Caspian Sea. While some might argue that Deng Xiaoping followed the economic models and reforms of the Asian Tigers and Japan a couple of decades too late, China has had the chance to learn much from the mistakes made by its Asian neighbors. When the Asian financial crisis in 1997 brought recession to Asia and the world economy at large, China’s growth was hardly affected. The tigers including Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand experienced sharp reductions in values of currencies, stock markets, and other asset prices. Millions of people fell below the poverty line from 1997 to 1998 as businesses collapsed and fortunes were wiped out. Political upheaval followed as Suharto of Indonesia and Chavalit Yongchaiyudh of Thailand resigned. Anti-Western sentiment peaked and the International Monetary Fund heavily criticized.

This stability in China was due to China’s 1994 pegging of the renminbi to the dollar in order to signal a commitment to a non-inflationary monetary and fiscal policy. China’s growth in the ensuing period, therefore, was not due to artificial exchange rate devaluations, but due to painfully cultivated domestic demand. The Tigers, meanwhile, aggressively devalued their currency to increase exports to drive the economy, inviting currency speculation that fed the crisis. Somewhat hypocritically, while the United States applauded China for its 1994 decision to peg the renminbi to the dollar, the United States now accuses China of keeping exchange rates artificially low.

In recent years, the US has urged China to abolish the peg which America so heartedly encouraged only a few years before. Interestingly, China now has a trade surplus with the US, but a trade deficit with nearly everyone else, including high cost countries like Japan and Germany. The US trade deficit is perhaps more our own fault than that of the Chinese. Foreign investors also complain that China’s multilayered stock market, with some stocks restricted to ownership only by Chinese nationals, presents an illiquid, opaque market for foreign stockholders.
Yet once again, the system has been partly deliberate; the Asian Financial Crises of 1997 provided a cautionary tale whether correct or not. Instead of caving into political pressure, China has fashioned policies and market reforms that are retractable and testable. After all, it was Deng Xiaoping who coined another phrase: Crossing the river by feeling the stones in front of you.
China’s Stock Market
The Chinese have long been capitalists. In fact, Chinese companies have issued public shares since the mid nineteenth century. The market for securities trading in Shanghai began in the late 1860s. In June 1866 a list of thirteen companies, including the Hong Kong & Shanghai Banking Corporation, appeared in a local newspaper under the ‘Shares and Stocks’ section.
In 1891, during a boom in mining shares, foreign businessmen founded the Shanghai Share Broker’s Association, China’s first stock exchange. In 1904 the Association applied for registration in Hong Kong and was renamed the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Soon after brokers broke with the Exchange over a dispute about commissions. These brokers formed another Shanghai Sharebrokers’ Association in 1909, but in 1929 the two markets combined operating under the name of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. This stock exchange became the biggest by market capitalization in all of Asia before coming to an abrupt halt on December 8, 1941 when the Japanese invaded Shanghai.
For the next few decades, under Mao’s rule, public exchanges were forbidden until reform took place under Deng Xiaoping. In the late 1980’s when the government purposefully contracted the economy to curb runaway inflation by tightening the money supply, Shenzhen and Shanghai firms issued shares to raise much-needed capital. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China established a small trading counter in 1986. The economic need for a stock market exchange was obvious, but ideological concerns—the stock market, after all, is probably the most recognized mechanism of capitalism—caused the government to stall. However, when overseas Hong Kong Chinese agreed to help develop a viable and structured stock market, the government caved in to economic pressures and helped design two stock exchanges—one in Shanghai and another in Shenzhen. Shenzhen is another example of Deng’s practical approach. Thirty years ago it was a village bordering the economic powerhouse in the Hong Kong territories which served as a gateway to China. Deng decided China should develop its own gateways and the economic and population boom in the Pearl River Delta has been staggering ever since. Shenzhen now has one of China’s two stock exchanges and about six million people. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange both commenced operations in December of 1990. When they opened, thousands of Chinese waited days in lines to buy shares.
Deng Xiaoping visited Shenzhen in 1992 and put to rest any remaining ideological concerns, announcing, "It’ll take careful study to determine whether stocks and the stock market are good for socialism or not. This also means that we must first try it out!” “Stock fever” to permeated the streets. Over the past decade and a half, the two exchanges have developed different characteristics. Many of the large, state-owned companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has lists more export-oriented companies, joint ventures, and younger companies. Initially the government intended the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to be the primary board to compete with Hong Kong across the border, but since 1992, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has become many times more active. In the future, it is conceivable that the two exchanges may merge. Australia had seven exchanges for more than 100 years until 1987, and Hong Kong had four exchanges from 1969 to 1986. Both countries now have only one exchange each. Europe is also in the process of consolidation as alliances and partnerships form due to the emergence of the Euro.
In addition to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges, China also has nationwide over the counter systems. The first is a computerized trading system called STAQ, the Securities Trading Automated Quotations system, modeled on the U.S. NASDAQ system. The STAQ system is the world's largest computerized trading system, as ranked by number of computer outlets. The second is the National Electronic Trading System [NET], which trades shares owned by state-owned enterprises and T-bonds. Regulatory organizations for the markets in China include the China Securities Regulatory Commission, roughly equivalent to our Securities and Exchange Commission.
A Stock Market with “Chinese Characteristics
Many say that the “Asian way” is to open the economy in such a way that all citizens have a stake in the economy’s wellbeing. The structure of equity ownership in China is a perfect illustration of this way of thinking. Just as the Chinese describe their mixed economy as “Socialism with Chinese characteristics,” the Chinese also developed their stock market to reflect this philosophy.
The Split-Share System: A-Shares, B-Shares, and Foreign Listings.
A-Shares: The Chinese developed a split-share system to prevent foreigners from prematurely speculating with their companies, acquiring the companies outright, or otherwise manipulating the markets. A staggered approach allows a company to issue classes of shares to domestic investors and foreign investors separately. A company issues A-shares to raise capital from domestic investors exclusively (although recent rules allow Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors to bid for licenses and invest in A-shares). The shares are listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen Exchanges. They are not open to individual foreigners and accounts are denominated in renminbi not freely convertible to any international currencies.
B-Shares: Before February of 2001, B-shares were exclusively issued to foreigners. These shares are also listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Exchanges, but the accounts are denominated in Hong Kong dollars or U.S. dollars. The aggregate market value of B-shares is less than 5% of the A-share market’s value. The long-term performance of the B-share market also lags far behind the A-share market, even when the same company issues A-shares and B-shares with identical voting and dividend rights. A-shares tended to trade at a great premium in the past, selling on average 420% higher than a B-share counterpart from the period 1993-2000. One reason, somewhat ironically considering the reasons for the development of the split share structure, is that domestic investors in China tend to speculate more actively in stocks than foreign investors, as evidenced by the high rates of turnover (500% per year for A-shares versus 200% per year for B-shares). Another reason for the premium is that some foreigners may view the split-share system with suspicion, and discounting shares labeled “foreigners only.” The presence of such a large domestic share premium is quite different from many emerging and developed markets where domestic shares often sell at the discount. In countries as diverse as the Philippines, Thailand, and Switzerland, domestic shares sometimes sell at a discount.
In February of 2001, the government opened up B shares to domestic investors, in an attempt to rescue what had become a stagnant market. When Beijing decreed that Chinese citizens could buy Class B-shares if they could show proof that they were starting the account for a foreigner, money poured into the country through wire transfers to residents from friends and relatives abroad. When the markets opened, buyers far outnumbered sellers. More than three-quarters of the stocks jumped their 10 percent daily limit, many on the turnover of a single share.
However, even after the rule change, capital controls continue to restrict the acquisition of B-shares by Chinese residents. Since Chinese citizens have limited access to foreign capital, the relaxation of restrictions on B-shares by domestic investors did not eliminate the premium entirely. B-shares remain the only way foreigners can freely invest in shares within China; most Chinese companies have not issued B shares anticipating that the restrictions on open investment by foreigners within China is on the not-too-distant horizon. For example, there are recurrent stories that B-shares will be eliminated perhaps by converting them into A-shares. In the meantime B-shares remain the only way for individual foreigners to buy shares on mainland stock exchanges.

Foreign Listings: There are two ways Chinese companies can list abroad. First, companies can apply directly to the foreign exchange. In 1999, China.com listed on the NASDAQ, as did Sina.com (SINA). In October of 2006, China Construction Bank Corporation became the first of the Big Four state-owned banks to list offshore in this manner, with a US$9.2 billion Hong Kong initial public offering.
The largest of the Big Four, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, executed a $21 billion dual listing on both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange in October of 2006. The Bank of China has A-shares on the Shanghai board as well as the Hong Kong board. China Construction Bank is currently solely listed in Hong Kong. The Agricultural Bank of China is the second biggest bank in China by assets, and is not yet publicly traded anywhere. Many international exchanges are eager to attract business and publicity from Chinese company listings, and the London Stock Exchange announced in late 2006 that it would step up its efforts to attract listings from Chinese companies. Another way that a Chinese company can list abroad is to sell shares from an initial issue on a Mainland or Hong Kong exchange to an investment bank, which then will act as the intermediary and underwrite American Depository Receipts [ADR] or Global Depository Shares [GDS] on a foreign exchange against their holdings of the original listing. Regardless of the method chosen by the company, H, N, L, and S shares describe shares listed in Hong Kong, New York, London, and Singapore, respectively.
While only foreign institutional investors and a limited number of qualified individuals can invest in the A-share markets in China directly, many of China's best companies list shares abroad. Shares listed outside China are freely open to all foreigners. This archaic system has grown for historic – if irrational – reasons but now has some absurdities. An individual foreigner would be prohibited from buying A-shares in a company listed in China, but could buy B, H, L, N, or S shares in the same company. Over 14% of Singapore's listings are Chinese companies. As of 2006, there were 33 Chinese ADRs trading on the NASDAQ, the main Over the Counter system in America and 16 Chinese ADRs trading on the New York Stock Exchange. There are thousands of many more obscure companies, frequently penny stocks, that don't meet NASDAQ's listing requirements. These companies trade separately, often with their prices listed only once daily, on the OTC Bulletin Board [OTCBB] or, pink sheets, a daily publication complied by the National Quotation Bureau containing price quotations for OTC stocks.
Domestic Exchanges
As of the September 2006, 1,377 companies were listed on the two exchanges, with total market capitalization of 3.2 trillion renminbi, or US$400 billion. From 1991 to 2005, companies raised over $1.2 trillion renminbi, or US$150 billion on the two exchanges. While the number of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange continues to grow, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange seems to have lost its appeal to companies since 2000, with no particular reason. We will see whether this trend continues, and whether the boards show signs that they might merge. In May of 2005, the Chinese government imposed an Initial Public Offering [IPO] ban to reevaluate market conditions. The ban was subsequently lifted in May of 2006. Most of the subsequent initial sales of shares have been on the Shanghai Exchange at least partially because they have been larger, well-established companies.
Interestingly enough, Chinese domestic investors bear the brunt of the risk in China’s developing market. Until a few years ago, China would not allow its citizens to exchange renminbi for foreign currencies. The only foreign currency that domestic investors could legally obtain was money sent back from overseas relatives or friends. Furthermore, many of China’s more mature and profitable “blue-chip companies” are not available to domestic investors as they are listed on overseas exchanges. A
lthough foreign listing is a common practice for companies in countries such as South Africa and Israel, overseas listings by Chinese companies far outstrips that of any other country. China Mobile (CHL), China Unicom (CHU), CNOOC, and Legend are all leading Chinese companies as well as components of Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s Hang Sang Index.

Yet while Mainland Chinese are the customers, suppliers, producers, and even employees of these companies, they are barred from investing in them. The Chinese government regulates initial public offerings on all its exchanges. The government sets the quota for new listings each year, selects the qualified companies based on provincial and sector allocation, and until 2001, even determined where the new stocks would list. China is the only country in which the government controls the size of the stock market, the pace of issue and the allocation to exchanges. Also, under China’s current laws, no company is allowed to list without three years of continuous profitability – a much more conservative policy than in the US and elsewhere. Like Japan, China’s stock market leans heavily towards the industrial sector, with many manufacturing-oriented companies. Based on the Dow Jones Global Classification Standard, as of June 2005, the industrial sector, one of ten economic sectors, represents about 20% of the Dow Jones China Index, much more than the Dow Jones World Index’s allocation of 11%.
Other sectors with strong manufacturing ties also have significant representation in China’s stock market. The industrial, basic Materials, consumer Cyclical and consumer noncyclical sectors combined cover more than 70% of the broad index’s market capitalization. At the global level, those same sectors only account for about 36% of the Dow Jones World Index. China echoes its nicknames as the “World’s Factory” and the “Global Manufacturer” on stock markets too. By contrast, sectors representing a significant portion of the global market, such as financial, information technology, and healthcare, are underweight in China on Mainland exchanges, comprising of 7%, 2.8%, and 0.2% respectively. It is important to remember, however, that these weights are somewhat misrepresentative due to government listing decisions. China Mobile and China Unicom are both listed and traded in Hong Kong only. As a result, Hong Kong is heavily overweight in telecommunication stocks at 22.6%, while China’s telecommunications sector represents only 0.2% of its market. Likewise, CNOOC and Legend Holdings, leading companies in the energy and technology sectors, are only listed in Hong Kong, skewing the representation of the sectors in both markets.
Floating Non-Tradable Shares
Besides the split-share system, another feature of the Chinese stock market are non-tradable shares. Every stock market in the world has non-tradable shares such as company cross-holdings, government-owned shares, and private holdings. According to the Dow Jones World Index, about 14% of all the shares issued in the world are non-tradable. Among seven developed markets, the UK has the highest free-float ratio at 95.1% while Hong Kong has the lowest at 48.5%. The US has a free float ratio of 93.9%. Generally speaking, stock markets in Asia such as Hong Kong and Singapore tend to have relatively low free-float ratios—probably due to cultural and historical reasons. An announced plan to reduce government ownership in July 2001 triggered a 45% market crash.
Faced with an explosion of available shares, any market is at risk of a collapse. For example, if all family-owned shares were put on the market in Hong Kong, float shares would almost double, a wave the Hong Kong market would find hard to bear. The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, the first exchange-traded fund [ETF] in the Asia Pacific, was originally created as a vehicle for the Hong Kong government to unload the shares it bought during the financial turmoil in 1998 to maintain market stability.
Since its launch in November 1999, the Hong Kong market always drops significantly before its quarterly issuance.China has made significant progress in floating non-tradable shares in a reasonable manner. While only about 150 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and about 130 companies on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange can be considered free of government ownership, since May of 2005, batches of companies have been scheduled to float non-tradeable shares through a series of orchestrated negotiations between the state and current share holders. As of mid 2006, less than 50% of shares are state-owned, a dramatic improvement considering that in January of 2002, the state owned 78% of equity shares.
Tracking the Dow Movement on Monday.
The black Friday which coincides with the 20th anniversary of the big Dow crash of 1987 did not spill over to the Monday's market.
This shows how the stock market has been rigged by the big boys.The reason for the upsurge is "overcome nervousness".Does this make any economic sense or are they staging an economic psychological warfare against other markets?The world oil price also tough the high of USD90 per barrel right on the dot....today hefty profit taking.Very well syncronised!!!

Let's call this pair "Morning Doji Bullish Star"
The white spinning candlestick also looks like a dragonfly!

Saturday, October 20, 2007

20th Anniversary of Wall Street CRASH!!!

Sombre mood at the trading floor.Dow close off 366.94 points.(2.64%).....hope to be a mini crash compared to 1987 which is down 22.0%.Finance officials from the world's top economic powers (G-7) pledged Friday to do all they can to limit damage to the global economy from a jarring credit crisis as Wall Street took another plunge.

-- On Oct. 19, 1987, the stock market crashed, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 508.32 points. Investors feared that the end of the world was at hand.http://www.lowrisk.com/crash/crashcharts.htm


It's a grizzly day at wall street on Friday.The bulls got mauled.Will this be a mini-crash or another big crash or maybe this is a pre-emptive anniversary celebration before it starts with a new platform for a rebound?




Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Bombay Stock Exchange Trading Curbs

Indian Stocks, Rupee Slump; Regulator Proposes Investment Curbs

India's stocks tumbled, shutting down the Bombay Stock Exchange for an hour.The rupee fell the most in two months after regulators proposed restrictions on investments favored by global hedge funds.

The benchmark Sensex index dropped as much as 9.2 percent after the Securities & Exchange Board of India said late yesterday it plans to limit trading by investors who buy shares anonymously, using derivatives known as participatory notes. Record share purchases had driven the Sensex up 38 percent this year to an all-time high and fueled a 12.5 percent gain in the rupee against the dollar.

Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said the rules were aimed at moderating capital inflows that fueled a ``very steep rise'' in stocks. The central bank bought a record $39.9 billion in the eight months through August to curb gains in the rupee that have reduced earnings at exporters including Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., the country's biggest software maker. There's too much of a hot money.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index of 30 companies, or Sensex, fell as low as 17,307.90, before trading down 4.1 percent at 18,276.70 as of 12:20 p.m. in Mumbai. ICICI Bank Ltd., India's biggest lender by market value, fell as much as 12.5 percent and traded 7.6 percent lower at 1069.15 rupees. Reliance Industries Ltd., the nation's biggest company, dropped 3 percent to 2568 rupees, rebounding from a 14 percent slump.

The rupee fell as much as 1.6 percent to 39.97 per dollar before trading at 39.715, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency reached 39.27 on Oct. 11, the highest since February 1998.

Slowing Flows
Regulators will have to consider restrictions to strengthen market oversight.There is concerned that investment bubbles are fueling inflation.

More than half of the $17 billion of the net purchases of Indian stocks this year may have been through the use of derivatives known as participatory notes, JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates. The notes, which change in value depending on the performance of the underlying securities, provide hedge funds anonymity in their investment.

The ``proposed measures would constitute restrictions on the issuance of participatory notes to offshore investors and effectively plug an important source of equity inflows.''

Seeking Response
The regulator suggested foreign institutional investors may not be allowed to issue or renew offshore derivative instruments and will be required to extinguish existing participatory notes in 18 months. It sought a response to proposals by Oct. 20.
``The government was getting uncomfortable with the sharp run, which was creating a bubble,'' said Jayesh Shroff, who helps manage the equivalent of about $6.4 billion at SBI Funds Management Pvt. in Mumbai.

India Economy
India's growth, the second-fastest among the world's 20 major economies, is luring money from abroad. The flows accelerated after the U.S. Federal Reserve's Sept. 18 interest rate cut prompted global funds to chase higher returns.

The rupee's surge helped cut India's inflation rate to an annual rate of 3.4 percent in September, from a two-year high of 6.7 percent in January. Price increases will rebound to 5 percent by March next year, according to the median estimate of 9 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Overseas investors bought $8.2 billion more of Indian stocks than they sold since the Fed's decision, compared with $1.4 billion in the month preceding that, according to data provided by the Securities & Exchange Board of India. Their net purchases this year were at a record $17 billion.

Derivatives are contracts whose value is derived from stocks, bonds, loans, currencies or commodities or linked to specific events such as changes in interest rates or the weather.
``The Indian stock regulations have made people worried about how that's going to affect the flow of money,'' said Yasuhiro Miyata, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $17 billion in assets at DLIBJ Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``If the flow of money is cut off to the emerging markets, that's going to slow down those economies, which is why companies dependent on those countries are taking a hit today
Tracking the Dow Movement on Tuesday 16/10/07
The bears continue their second day of stampede which normaly slow down on the 2nd trading day.The last minute closing near or at the Moving Average from the bottom is a good sign of a positive early recovery.The bad news by the Fed's chairman has been carefully doctored on the mid-point of the month (the Pivot Day),that's where the Nikkei Futures is at expiry as well as the Dow Futures expiring 18/10/07.This has been an ever going process agenda so the well informed big-boys who have noted in their diary are the main benefacto.The man in the street will have to be culled at the slaughter house.
The long lower shadow of the bears,the tail has been fully utilised on Tuesday.What a good set-up by the market makers.Such a fear threatening device.So the lower shadow on Tuesday is very short hence further pullback will be limited.It's time for technical rebound and short covering to gear up for the new Dow futures trading month.Noticed the closing on Tuesday is just a few points from the tail end.Healthy sign.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Bernanke: Housing Woes to Slow Growth

A deepening housing slump probably will be a "significant drag" on economic growth into next year and it will take time for Wall Street to fully recover from a painful credit crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Monday.

Bernanke once again pledged to "act as needed" to help financial markets -- which have suffered through several months of turbulence -- function smoothly and to keep the economy and inflation on an even keel.

"Conditions in financial markets have shown some improvement since the worst of the storm in mid-August, but a full recovery of market functioning is likely to take time, and we may well see some setbacks," Bernanke said in a speech to the New York Economic Club.

The ultimate implications of the credit crunch on the broader economy, however, remain "uncertain," the Fed chief said.

Since that September meeting, the housing slump -- the worst in 16 years -- has gotten deeper, Bernanke said.
"The further contraction in housing is likely to be a significant drag on growth in the current quarter and through early next year," he said.

Bernanke said the Fed will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. "Part of the reason that we have some confidence in inflation remaining well controlled is we expect to see the economy growing more slowly at the end of this year" and early next year.

The Fed's next move will be determined by what is best for the economy, Bernanke suggested. As he has said previously, it is not the Fed's job to shield investors from the consequences of bad financial decisions.
"Developments over the past few months reinforce this point. Those who made bad investment decisions lost money."
The worst carnage has affected investors in "subprime" mortgages -- those made to people with spotty credit or low incomes. Some lenders have been forced out of business and some investors in those and related mortgage-backed securities have taken a huge financial hit. Foreclosures and late payments have soared.

Weaker home prices seen during the housing bust have made it more difficult for some subprime borrowers to refinance out of loans that offered low "teaser" rates but jumped to much higher rates, resulting in payment shocks. Delinquencies on these mortgages are expected to rise further, Bernanke predicted.


Tracking the Dow Movement on Monday 15/10/07

Another jittering day on the credit-crunch issues sent the Dow sliding from the opening bell before it starts to stabilise after 11:15am.Intermittent accumulation were noticed and towards the last one-hour of trading an advancing soldiers were sighted and aiming for the MAV.A possible spill-over of bulls for the next day trading.


It's a Bearish Engulfing candlestick!It did not close below the Bottom average.There is a possibility of a short covering. http://www.litwick.com/indicators/1210.html