Saturday, July 31, 2010

An isolated huge consumer market.

The name "Burma" has been in use in English since the time of British colonial rule(1886-1948).Today it is known as Union of Myanmar with its capital city Yangon.(previously Rangoon).The changes in name started in 1989 when the illegitimate ruling military junta tookover the helms.
Burma, which has a total area of 678,500 square kilometres (262,000 sq mi), is the largest country in mainland Southeast Asia, and the 40th-largest in the world.
The country is bordered by People's Republic of China on the north-east, Laos on the east, Thailand on the south-east, Bangladesh on the west, India on the north-west and the Bay of Bengal to the south-west with the Andaman Sea defining its southern periphery.
With an estimated population of 50 million, squeezed between the two fastest-growing economies in the world (China and India) and kept artificially poor by 50 years of debilitating government policies, Burma's consumer goods market is ready to explode.
Here is some other news about Burma: this is a country where live not only 200 generals and one Lady, but also 50 million ordinary people, 50 million consumers who have developed very similar consumption habits to their neighbours in Thailand.
A quick visit to Mingalar Zay, the main wholesaler's market in Rangoon, will make you wonder whether you are in Burma or in Thailand. Many brands - local as well as international - familiar to Thai consumers are part of the Burmese people's everyday life.
Thirty per cent of the population is urban and 50 per cent of the non-rural population lives in Rangoon and Mandalay. The population of Burma is very young, with 45 per cent below the age of 19.
The average disposable income per household in Rangoon and Mandalay is between US$150 (Bt5,230) and $200 per month.
"There is enormous potential for growth. It is still affordable to build up brands and establish a position for the long run in this market, which is bound to catch up with its Thai neighbour. Total media spend is estimated at less than US$20 million per year (less than 1 per cent of media spend in Thailand)."
Tracking the Dow,Friday 30/07/10.
Asian Index Futures Expiry day.
9:30am:--Bearish 60.0 points gap down.The Commerce Department reported U.S. real gross domestic product climbed 2.4% in the second quarter from an upwardly revised 3.7% in the first quarter.
10:30am:--Bullish inverted filling up opening gap.Data on business activity in the U.S. Midwest grew more than expected this month as businesses boosted employment and orders.
11:30am:--Pullback time for morning session.Bearish spin.Consumer sentiment data fell in July to its lowest level since November.
12:30noon:--Bearish hammer.Energy stocks end flat on lackluster GDP data.
1:30pm:--Further bearish spin.The economy continues to grow at a slower pace.
2:30pm:--A technical reboundIndecision doji at session MAV resistance.
3:30pm:--The ascending soldiers.Airline stocks soar in July, but August turbulence looks likely.
4:00pm:--A bearish shooting star closing near day's high.
The many spinning dojis towards month's end is a sign of very high volatility in days ahead.These big swings will augurs well for intraday speculators.Unadvisable to hold positions for too long a time.We will be heading towards two major anniversary crash,the September 11 and the mid-October black Friday.
When the companies reporting season ends,there comes the economic undercurrents.Growth fears and interest rates hike fears will be the added theme play.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Downgrading Hungary.

Ratings agency Moody's put Hungary on review for a possible downgrade on Friday, citing increased fiscal risks after it suspended talks with the IMF and EU on its existing $25 billion aid deal.
The new government halted the talks last weekend. Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Thursday he would likely not renew the safety net and would row back on a commitment to cut the budget deficit to European Union-prescribed levels next year.
"This uncertainty is the result of the recent breakdown of Hungary's talks with the IMF and EU (after a disagreement over the country's 2010-11 fiscal deficit targets), which in turn led to a suspension in the next disbursement from the IMF/EU EUR20 billion loan programme for Hungary."
Orban has spurned warnings that Hungary -- where households have a large stock of foreign currency debt -- could face market pressure and currency weakness without support from its lenders.
He said the current EU and International Monetary Fund deal would expire in October, and while Hungary would meet its 2010 budget target under the agreement, the government would negotiate with the EU about how and when to bring the deficit below 3 percent.
Moody's said a review of Hungary's sovereign ratings would focus on the willingness of the government to formulate a coherent reform agenda that could stabilize the economy and the government's financial strength.
"Moody's expects the Hungarian government and the EU and IMF to come to an agreement following the local elections (scheduled for October 3), as all sides are aware of the negative consequences of a complete breakdown in the programme," it said.
The agency is likely to confirm Hungary's current rating of Baa1 if there is a credible commitment to the IMF's previously proposed fiscal targets, it said.
"However, if the new fiscal targets that emerge from the next round of talks imply a less rapid fiscal consolidation path, then a one-notch rating downgrade is likely," it said.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,23/07/10.
9:30am:--Mild Bearish gap down opener.Moody's placed Hungary's sovereign rating under review for a possible downgrade.
10:30am:--Bulls short cover.A disappointing bottom line from Internet retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 109.27, -10.80) dragged early going.
11:30am:--Still holding near session high,bulls are trying to make a breakthrough.Results from the stess tests on European banks are expected to be released shortly.
12:30noon:--The usual pullback time to MAV support line.
1:30pm:--The ascending soldiers.CNBC reported that Portugal's central bank said that all of its banks passed the tests so are Sweden ,France and Germany.
2:30pm:--A pullback from new high and still holding strongly by the bulls.
3:30pm:--Bearish engulfing but failed to test the bull pivot support line.
4:00pm:--Bullish unshaven candlestick closing.A slight pullback before surging again.
A spinning top was formed on Friday which reaches the high of the month.The going is still strong.The latest batch of earnings reports gave another shot of confidence to recovery hopes.US stocks posted their second best weekly performance of the year, led by the NASDAQ Composite with a gain of 4.15%. Within the S&P 500 sectors, industrial and material companies rose the most.