Friday, July 23, 2010

Downgrading Hungary.

Ratings agency Moody's put Hungary on review for a possible downgrade on Friday, citing increased fiscal risks after it suspended talks with the IMF and EU on its existing $25 billion aid deal.
The new government halted the talks last weekend. Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Thursday he would likely not renew the safety net and would row back on a commitment to cut the budget deficit to European Union-prescribed levels next year.
"This uncertainty is the result of the recent breakdown of Hungary's talks with the IMF and EU (after a disagreement over the country's 2010-11 fiscal deficit targets), which in turn led to a suspension in the next disbursement from the IMF/EU EUR20 billion loan programme for Hungary."
Orban has spurned warnings that Hungary -- where households have a large stock of foreign currency debt -- could face market pressure and currency weakness without support from its lenders.
He said the current EU and International Monetary Fund deal would expire in October, and while Hungary would meet its 2010 budget target under the agreement, the government would negotiate with the EU about how and when to bring the deficit below 3 percent.
Moody's said a review of Hungary's sovereign ratings would focus on the willingness of the government to formulate a coherent reform agenda that could stabilize the economy and the government's financial strength.
"Moody's expects the Hungarian government and the EU and IMF to come to an agreement following the local elections (scheduled for October 3), as all sides are aware of the negative consequences of a complete breakdown in the programme," it said.
The agency is likely to confirm Hungary's current rating of Baa1 if there is a credible commitment to the IMF's previously proposed fiscal targets, it said.
"However, if the new fiscal targets that emerge from the next round of talks imply a less rapid fiscal consolidation path, then a one-notch rating downgrade is likely," it said.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,23/07/10.
9:30am:--Mild Bearish gap down opener.Moody's placed Hungary's sovereign rating under review for a possible downgrade.
10:30am:--Bulls short cover.A disappointing bottom line from Internet retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 109.27, -10.80) dragged early going.
11:30am:--Still holding near session high,bulls are trying to make a breakthrough.Results from the stess tests on European banks are expected to be released shortly.
12:30noon:--The usual pullback time to MAV support line.
1:30pm:--The ascending soldiers.CNBC reported that Portugal's central bank said that all of its banks passed the tests so are Sweden ,France and Germany.
2:30pm:--A pullback from new high and still holding strongly by the bulls.
3:30pm:--Bearish engulfing but failed to test the bull pivot support line.
4:00pm:--Bullish unshaven candlestick closing.A slight pullback before surging again.
A spinning top was formed on Friday which reaches the high of the month.The going is still strong.The latest batch of earnings reports gave another shot of confidence to recovery hopes.US stocks posted their second best weekly performance of the year, led by the NASDAQ Composite with a gain of 4.15%. Within the S&P 500 sectors, industrial and material companies rose the most.