The world economy is cooling this year thanks to a slowdown in the United States, but something new is playing out: This slowdown is serving to amplify a shift in financial power toward Asia and developing nations.
Countries such as China and India are now big enough to help guide the global economy. In the past, a sharp downshift in the US and Europe would decisively slow the rate of global growth.
The US economy remains the world's mightiest. But even for Americans, this new economic order has immediate implications:
-- Demand for US exports from these new markets is providing a helpful cushion for growth, yet trade tensions could be an issue in the US presidential election.
-- Money from emerging markets is playing an increasingly important role in the US financial system.
-- Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve must worry about upward price pressures for food and fuel. That problem calls for tighter monetary policy, while the domestic consumer slump calls for the opposite policy.
For consumers and workers worldwide, what's playing out is a tug of war between two opposing problems.
First is the weakness in the US and some other advanced nations as a housing slump and related credit squeeze hits households. That's dragging GDP growth down on all continents.
Second is inflation, a symptom of the strength of emerging nations. Their demand for commodities explains much of the surge in fuel and food prices worldwide. It's this problem that is, at present, taking center stage as a global worry.
Tracking the Dow On Tuesday,03/06/08.
9:30am--30.0points bull gap-up.
Better reading on the economy: Factory orders rose 1.1% in April after increasing 1.5% in March, the government reported. Sales were expected to drop 0.1% in the month.
10:30am--Gap sell down,early spinning top.
Bernanke on growth: The Fed chairman said the economy remains under pressure, but implied that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates again soon, due to rising oil prices and other inflationary pressures. Bernanke was speaking to the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Spain, via satellite. (Full story.)
A small inverted bull hoovering at the trading low.
11:30am--Two black crows with hangman.
A failed attempt to break the high.Open a sell-short position.Oil prices fall: U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $3.45 to settle at $124.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
12:30pm--Hangman.
Reports that Lehman Brothers may need to raise more capital amid the credit market fallout.
1:30pm-- The kamikaze(Japanese suisidal planes)
A long black bar with a killer sword.
2:30pm--A bullish harami.
Close and buy-long position.(High+Low)/2=MAV.Either a technical rebound at MAV or mid-way between (Low+MAV)/2.
3:30pm--Ascending soldiers.
Bravo!It touches the MAV.
4:00pm--Pullback ending with four legged leaping frog.
The three gorges.(Image results for three gorges)
Earthquake danger of dams. [Full story]
The Dow since Friday is a replica of the Niagara Falls.It should have reached the bottom.